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110
FXUS63 KICT 212344
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
644 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance (20%) for showers through this evening.

- Increasing confidence for isolated showers and storms on
  Saturday, especially east of I-135.

- Hot on Monday and Tuesday, but chances for showers through the
  end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Water vapor imagery currently depicts an upper-level trough
gradually making its way eastward over the Great Basin as the
synoptic ridge continues to sit over the Ohio River Valley. Surface
analysis reveals a warm front extending from the High Plains to Lake
Michigan, which is providing lift for additional showers and
storms across the Northern Central Plains. SPC mesoanalysis once
again highlights anomalous PW values approaching 2" across
south central and eastern Kansas, which have led to a handful of
showers developing over the region this afternoon that are
making their way northward. These are expected to be short-lived
and diurnal in nature.

The upper-level disturbance making its way across the Northern
Central Plains will bring a cold front that will make its way across
central and eastern Kansas Saturday afternoon. This boundary will
provide sufficient lift for isolated showers and storms to develop
given rich moisture profiles and ~1500 J/kg of CAPE, but marginal
deep-layer shear around 20 kts should prevent widespread severe
storms from developing. Even so, the primary threats with any storms
tomorrow afternoon/evening will be 60 mph wind gusts and locally
heavy rainfall. Currently thinking development could extend as far
west as I-135 per the mid-range deterministic models and CAMs, but
coverage should remain primarily in east and northeast Kansas.

Heat will continue to be the primary focus heading into next week.
High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are forecast at or above 100
degrees for much of central and southeast Kansas, with heat indices
approaching 105-110 degrees. Long-range models are in general
agreement of shortwave energy providing chances for showers and
storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, then later on in the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
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Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Gusty southerly winds at 15 to 25 will persist tonight while VFR
prevails over the region. A frontal boundary will sag southward
on Saturday shifting winds to the northwest in central KS. This
boundary could provide a focus for an isolated storm to two
toward the end of the period.
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&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...BRF/MWM