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059
FXUS63 KICT 211113
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
613 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated shower/storm chance today, mainly either side of
  the I-35 corridor.

- Chance of strong storms Saturday evening along/east of I-135
  between I-70 and highway 54.

- Dangerous heat/humidity combo builds this weekend into early
  next week with Excessive Heat conditions likely by Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Near term upper pattern shows ridging from the Tennessee Valley
westward across the Ozarks to the southern Plains with
perturbations in an early season monsoonal-type flow ahead of
the California upper trof moving from Arizona and the Four
Corners up across the Rockies into the northern Plains. The
western upper trof will weaken as it lifts northeast across the
northern Rockies before sliding eastward across the northern
Plains on Saturday. The associated weak cold front will move
southward across the area Saturday night. For today, low level
thermal profiles support highs a few degrees warmer than
yesterday in the 90-95 range and even hotter in the mid/upper
90s on Saturday. Precipitable water values remain fairly high
today with only weak/subtle capping within a moderate diurnal
instability/weak shear regime. So expect we may see isolated
showers/thunder again, though less than 15 percent of the area
and generally either side of the I-35 corridor. Stronger
instability with perhaps modest shear will reside just ahead of
the front on Saturday afternoon/evening across a portion of the
area. This should support at least widely scattered coverage
and chances for a few strong/marginally severe storms.

As we head into the latter half of the weekend, a stronger
upper trof over south central Canada will drop southeast across
the Great Lakes through Sunday night. The result over the
weekend will be for the southern upper ridge to shift westward
and build over the Southwest conus turning the modest flow aloft
across Kansas from the northwest. The medium range generally
supports a building upper ridge across the western conus and
downstream troughing over the eastern conus by Wednesday. A hot
and dry pattern looks to hold sway across the area on Monday and
possibly thru Tuesday before modest heat relief with a frontal
passage by Tuesday night/Wednesday. The greatest risk for
excessive heat and humidity look to peak on Monday and possibly
into Tuesday with air temperatures above 100 degrees and heat
indices of 105 to perhaps near 110.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Despite a few showers developing this morning, VFR conditions
are expected to prevail through the TAF period.

Isolated to scattered light showers have developed across much
of the area this morning with the highest coverage approaching
the I-70 corridor around 11Z this morning. Little to no impacts
are expected, but brief moderate rainfall may briefly reduce
visibility at times. Ceilings are expected to remain VFR.

Southerly winds will gradually increase today, and 20 to 30
knot wind gusts are possible along and west of I-135 later this
afternoon. Also, additional shower and storm development is
possible this afternoon, but coverage is expected to remain too
isolated for a mention in the TAFs for now.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...JC