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226
FXUS63 KICT 210531
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1231 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and storms return Saturday afternoon.

- Hot next week, with widespread areas of 100+ degrees
  especially in the first half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Water vapor imagery currently shows shortwave energy sitting over
the Pacific Northwest as the upper-level ridge continues to build
over the Ohio River Valley. Surface analysis reveals a quasi-warm
front draped over the Northern Central Plains extending from the
Nebraska Panhandle to Lake Erie. Showers and storms are developing
out ahead of this front across southern South Dakota, Minnesota, and
Iowa. Additionally, current SPC mesoanalysis highlights a moist
column extending from the Red River Valley up to Iowa, with
precipitable water values exceeding 1.5 in. Coupled with weak
forcing along a stationary front, a handful of showers and storms
are popping up in Oklahoma and making their way northward. A handful
of these may make their way into southeast Kansas later this
afternoon and evening.

Despite the weak showers appearing over Oklahoma at the moment, a
lack of strong synoptic forcing should continue to keep the area
mostly dry this afternoon through tomorrow as the upper-level ridge
continues to strengthen to our east. The moist column will keep
highs tomorrow in the lower 90s across central and southeast Kansas.
The next opportunity for precipitation lies in the shortwave
currently situated over the Pacific Northwest, which is progged to
track eastward across the Northern Central Plains. This wave will
bring a cold front that is expected to nose its way into Kansas
Saturday afternoon/evening and touch off showers and storms. At this
moment, model consensus is that the majority of storm coverage
should stay to the northeast, but a stray shower or storm along I-35
cannot be ruled out. Modest instability, marginal deep-layer shear
and ample moisture should provide the potential for a handful of
severe storms as well. Stay tuned to future forecasts as this severe
threat is further assessed.

Looking ahead toward the end of the weekend and into next week, the
primary concern appears to be heat. Long-term models generally agree
in the eastward progression of an upper-level ridge from the Desert
Southwest to the Southern Plains. As this ridge settles in and
builds over the area, the Central Plains will most likely see highs
at or above 100 degrees, especially over the first half the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.

Southerly winds this morning will gradually increase throughout
the day, and breezy conditions are expected area-wide by this
afternoon. Wind speeds will generally be around 10 to 15 knots
with gusts between 20 and 30 knots during the afternoon hours.
Windiest conditions will be across central Kansas (KRSL, KGBD,
KSLN).

A very low chance (under 20%) of isolated showers, and maybe a
thunderstorm, exists between 18Z and 00Z this afternoon and
evening. With such low chances, any mention of this in all of
the TAFs was omitted.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...JC