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287
FXUS63 KICT 240513
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1213 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions yielding heat index values around 105
  Monday and possibly Tuesday and Friday

- Scattered showers and storms possible Tuesday morning (15-20%)

- Warm and active weather pattern with multiple storm chances
  Tuesday into next weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

As of 130 PM Sunday afternoon, a warm but pleasant afternoon was
ongoing across the region with light winds and temperatures near 90
degrees. Shortwave, midlevel, ridging will slide into the central
Plains by Monday, increasing afternoon temperatures by 5-8 degrees
and into the mid to upper 90s. Coupling in a relatively moist
boundary layer, characterized by dew points in the mid 60s to near
70, will create heat index values near 105 degrees. The Heat
Advisory for Monday remains in effect from 1-7 PM.

The shortwave ridging will slide east of area Monday night with
longwave ridging amplifying across southwest US, bringing
northwesterly midlevel flow to the central/northern Plains. A
shortwave trough near the Canadian will shunt a weak front
towards northern KS Monday night/Tuesday morning. A modest WAA
pattern will ensue early Tuesday morning through ~700 mb. Steep
lapse rates above 700 mb combined with the WAA may allow for a
few showers/storms to develop Tuesday morning, especially across
central KS. Severe weather is not expected. The magnitude of
excessive heat will be largely determined by remnant cloud cover
from any morning convection. Should convection linger through
much of the morning with cloud debris persisting, heat concerns
would be mitigated. The expectation is for any morning
convection to dissipate shortly after sunrise as low-level winds
veer. This will, unfortunately, yield afternoon temperatures in
the upper 90s and low 100s. Combining dew points in the upper
60s/near 70 will create heat index values between 105-110
degrees. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed by Tuesday
morning.

The weak front will sag into the forecast area late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Additional showers/storms are possible Tuesday night
into Wednesday. The midlevel pattern appears to remain active
through much of the week into next weekend with a series of midlevel
perturbations progressing across the central Plains, leading to
multiple rain chances. The best chances appear Friday night into
Saturday morning as a stronger midlevel trough glides across the
northern Plains, shunting a front into KS. Prior to its arrival,
excessive heat is possible Friday afternoon with heat index values
around 105.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid
period along with diurnally gusty south to southwest winds on
Monday.

KED
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Record highs for Monday and Tuesday:

             Monday          Tuesday

Wichita     103 (1980)      107 (1911)
Salina      107 (1937)      114 (1911)
Chanute     105 (1918)      104 (1933)
Russell     110 (2012)      108 (2012)

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...KED
CLIMATE...ELM