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557
FXUS62 KILM 250022
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
822 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Chance of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday as a
series of upper level disturbances move across. Inland
temperatures will risk into the lower 90s for Sunday and Monday.
Thunderstorm chances increase Monday and Monday night as a
front approaches. Front stalls near the coast through Wednesday,
followed by dry and seasonable weather late week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Early morning showers and t-storms across eastern NC were
associated with a weak upper impulse that has since moved to our
east. Drier air and implied subsidence behind this feature is
inhibiting convection currently across our forecast area,
however seabreeze convergence across SE North Carolina should be
sufficient to overcome this and produce scattered showers and
storms. This Cape Fear convective activity should decrease after
sunset, however we`ll be carefully watching the Grand Strand
and southern portion of the Pee Dee as there are indications
that clusters of storms developing now along the Savannah River
could sweep eastward during the evening hours. Given rather
steep lapse rates below the cloud base there is potential for
these storms to organize a massed cold pool and accelerate
toward the South Carolina coast with strong, gusty winds. SPC is
maintaining a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.

Convective activity should tend to diminish overnight, but
several weak shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft may maintain
isolated showers or t-storms through daybreak. Forecast lows are
in the upper 60s to around 70 on the beaches.

The flow aloft should bend a bit more northwesterly on Saturday
as mid and upper level ridging expands across the central Gulf
coast up through Tennessee. Weak shortwave energy still embedded
in this flow aloft may help enhance the potential for new
shower and thunderstorm development on Saturday, mainly along
and west of the seabreeze front. Forecast rain chances are 30-40
percent with inland highs expected to reach 90 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering convection Saturday night will quickly dissipate as
shortwave moves offshore and NVA prevails. Low temps in the
upper 60s. Bit of a non-descript pressure pattern on Sunday.
Have lowered pops slightly for Sunday afternoon with the hint of
mid-level subsidence present due to ridging from the south -
however with high temps around 92F away from the coast may still
end up with widely scattered storms along sea breeze and/or
Piedmont trough. Low temps Sunday night well above normal in the
low 70s as WAA increases ahead of approaching system.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WAA continues Monday as a low pressure system moves across the
Great Lakes and attending front approaches the area, aided by an
upper shortwave trough. Highs Monday will again reach low 90s.
Subsidence present on Sunday will be weakening Monday as mid
level ridge is pushed offshore. Chance for scattered storms
Monday afternoon with daytime heating and Monday night as front
slowly moves across the area.

The front is forecasted to linger near the coast Tuesday into
Wednesday, with drier air west of the front. Have maintained
some pops in the forecast for Tuesday, but it is conditional on
position of front and how far east the dry air gets as Tuesday
might end up dry. Front is pushed further offshore on Wednesday
as large high pressure centered over the Great Lakes builds
across the eastern US for late next week. Dry and near
seasonable weather forecasted for end of the week. Will note the
12z GFS came in with a wave of low pressure moving across the
Southeast around Thursday, which would increase rain chances.
Have kept forecast dry for Thursday-Friday and will wait for
additional runs before trending in that direction.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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All terminals to exhibit atleast VCTS thru the evening except
for LBT which it and its immediate surroundings and upstream
should remain in some drier air and subsidence. Otherwise, may
have to include short term tempo or prevailing groups,
dependent on the trajectory of the storms as they drop to the
ESE-SE and off the mainland into the adjacent waters. It may
take until 04-05z before all goes "quiet" convection-wise. 1 or
2 high res models indicate convection possibly affecting the SC
terminals during the pre-dawn Sat hrs. For now indicated the
possibility here but withheld from the SC TAFS. Winds go W to NW
5 kt or less overnight, fog a possibility but models seem to
downplay it attm even across terminals receiving rainfall.
Low to mid level convective debris to become high level
overnight. Daylight Sat will see another midday thru evening
convective possibility. Sea breeze and embedded mid-level s/w
trofs to interact with the days insolation aiding instability.

Extended Outlook...Scattered mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms may be accompanied by periodic short lived IFR
conditions through the weekend and into Monday.
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&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...It`s beginning to look a lot like summer as
the impact of highs, lows, and fronts on our winds is being
replaced by thunderstorm outflows and seabreezes. Synoptic winds
are light and from the south- southwest, but actual winds you
will experience on the coastal waters could be stronger with
variable directions near thunderstorms. Convective activity
should be most widespread north of Cape Fear before sunset.
South of Cape Fear there are indications that a cluster of
thunderstorms could sweep eastward toward the Grand Strand
beaches this evening, potentially accompanied by strong, gusty
winds.

After dying down after midnight, scattered showers and
thunderstorms should again develop Saturday afternoon along
tomorrow`s seabreeze front with similar impacts expected.

Outside of storms, seas are averaging 2-3 feet in a combination
of 8 second southeast swell plus local wind chop. Little change
is expected through Saturday.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Relatively light south-
southwest winds persist through late Sunday around high pressure
well offshore, with seas around 2 feet. South-southwesterly
flow increases on Monday as a front approaches from the west,
with sustained peaking at 15-20 kts Monday evening. Seas in turn
increase to 3-4 feet for late Monday as southerly wind wave
builds. Front moves offshore Monday night, lingering near the
coast Tuesday into Wednesday before being pushed further
offshore. This will decrease wind speeds heading into mid week,
along with variable directions between southwesterly and
westerly. Seas around 2-3 ft Tuesday and Wednesday. Best chance
for thunderstorms over the local coastal waters during the
extended period will be Monday evening and night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...TRA/VAO