-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
960
FXUS62 KILM 301752
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
152 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front that moves through early this morning will be
followed with dry high pressure that sticks around through the
weekend. Temperatures will linger near seasonal norms before the
high pressure pushes offshore next week, bringing a gradual
warming trend and a return of daily shower and thunderstorm
chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No longer 90 degree readings slated for this period or thru the
upcoming weekend. Will be under the influence of troffing aloft
with air masses dropping down from Central Canada across the
Great Lakes to the ILM CWA. Looking at max temps today in the
80-85 range and tonights lows in the 60-65 range with mid 60s
along the immediate coast given SSTs in the 70s. CFP during the
pre-dawn Thu hrs has resulted in frisky NNW-NNE winds across the
FA. CAA and even drier air with sfc dewpoints dropping into the
50s, mixing this aftn may drop them temporarily into the 40s
west of the I-95 corridor. The CAA turns neutral by this aftn
and the sfc pg relaxes. An embedded s/w trof tracks around the
longwave upper troffing late tonight which will bring down re-
enforcing CAA and dry air as high pressure again ridges in from
the Great Lakes. The dynamics associated with this s/w trof will
remain and pass by N thru NE of the area late tonight with no
pcpn making it this far south but still could observe mid- level
clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet forecast period ahead, with high pressure dominating as
it scoots over from the Ohio River Valley to offshore of the
mid- Atlantic. Highs Friday in the lower 80s, increasing by 2-3
degrees Saturday. Lows Friday night in the mid 50s inland to
near 60 at the coast, bringing a much cooler and drier feel to
the air than we`ve seen in the last couple of weeks. Lows
rebound a bit Saturday night, generally in the upper 50s to near
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure slowly moves further offshore throughout the long
term period, setting up more consistent return flow to the
area. Temperatures increase a bit each day, with some highs
approaching 90 inland by Tuesday. The return flow increases
moisture and cloud cover throughout this time. There`s no
significant changes in the upper steering flow or forcing, which
means that only mesoscale features will dominate. In other
words, slight chances for afternoon showers and storms gradually
come back into play, although this activity does not look all
that impressive. Shower and thunderstorm chances may start to
look a bit better by Wednesday, when shortwave energy rolls in
from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions will continue through the period. A slight
secondary surge very late tonight from the north is worth noting
in the official TAFs but outside of this nothing of
significance.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Sun. Isolated convection Mon could
result in brief MVFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...The next CFP will occur during the pre-dawn
Thu hrs and should be offshore by sunrise. Will see a mini-surge
NNW-NNE surge, below SCA thresholds, but could see gusts 20+ kt
at times thru the morning as CAA, drier air and a temporary
tightened sfc pg interact. By mid-aftn, the sfc pg relaxes and
winds go vrbl in direction at 1 kt or less except for the
possibility of a weak sea breeze near shore into the early
evening. Sfc high pressure from the GReat Lakes to re-enforce
itself across the waters by the end of this fcst period with
another mini NE surge likely after sunrise Fri. Seas generally
around 2 ft or less, except up to 3 ft from the mentioned
surges. Wind waves will dominate the "power factor" during the
mini-surges with the SE swell at 8+ second periods dominating
all other times.

Friday through Monday...Benign marine conditions continue through
the extended forecast period. Winds at 5-10kts gradually veer
this period, going from northerly Friday morning, to northeasterly
Friday afternoon, to ESE Saturday, to SSW Sunday and Monday.
Seas at 1-2ft gradually increase to 2-3ft later in the weekend.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IGB
NEAR TERM...DCH/CRM
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...DCH/IGB