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445
FXUS62 KILM 201034
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
634 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure maintains dry conditions through the first half of
the work week. Temperatures warm through mid week with rain
chances not returning until late Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
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No big changes with the latest update. Some low clouds/fog are
expected west of Wilmington through around daybreak. However,
another area of low clouds moving in from the northeast could
impact the Wilmington area as well.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Dry high pressure will maintain control as it ridges southward into
the area. This will bring lower than normal temps into
southeast NC and northeast SC with highs today close to 80 most
locales and lows tonight mainly in the mid to upper 50s. Some
low-level moisture advecting into the area and trapped beneath
the nocturnal inversion this morning and again tonight will
likely yield some low clouds/fog. Think the better chance of fog
will be tonight though given lighter low-level winds.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Shortwave ridging aloft aligns itself across the east coast through
the period with persistent surface high pressure. This will lead to
dry conditions through the short term period with a warming trend.
Some sources of forecast uncertainty could be cloudiness and lows
Tuesday night as the center of the high looks to nudge NE. This
could allow flow around the high to bring in stratus overnight,
which would inhibit radiational cooling despite calm winds. Still
lowered temps in our colder spots slightly. Otherwise, light onshore
flow becoming more SW by the end of the period. Highs warm from the
lower 80s to near 90; Lows near 60 warming into the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure moves offshore ahead of a shortwave Thurs night.
Forcing clips the northern part of the area with low rain chances. A
cold front will then approach through the end of the week. The
temperature forecast is a bit difficult as it will depend on how far
south this front pushes. Current trends show that it will stick
north of the area, so have risen temps slightly from previous
forecast. Spotty forcing aloft paired with enhanced moisture will
support increased shower/storm chances through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Generally VFR for the 12Z TAF period, although some low
clouds/fog are possible this morning, mainly through around
daybreak, and again late tonight.

Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate but early morning vis/cig
restrictions possible each day. Also, showers/storms also possible
starting Thu night.
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&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...High pressure to the north will maintain gusty
northeast winds into this evening before some improvement overnight.
Seas will also be elevated up to 5 ft, mainly due to wind waves but
also some mixed swells, but overall conditions should stay below
Small Craft Advisory levels.

Tuesday through Friday Night...Sub-SCA conditions under predominant
high pressure with increasing rain chances Thurs night. Onshore flow
AOB 10 kts becomes more SW 10-15 kts by Thurs. Seas 2-3 ft becoming
more 2 ft by Wed. Swells SE at 9-10 sec with a decreasing NE swell 7-
9 sec.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$.
Still leaning toward VFR at all 5 TAF sites through the period
with high pressure in control, although some low- level moisture
will be present so can`t rule out MVFR cigs, especially at KILM
around daybreak.

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/LEW