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599
FXUS61 KILN 261942
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
342 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight in
the moist and unstable circulation around low pressure to the
northwest. The threat for showers and thunderstorms is forecast
to diminish Monday as the low moves east. Showers will be
possible on Tuesday due to a disturbance crossing Northern Ohio.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Strong to severe thunderstorms that have developed in a moist
and unstable regime in the vicinity of a warm front are pushing
northeast across the area. Large scale forcing coupled with
mesoscale elements have resulted in the severe weather threat
that has necessitated Severe Thunderstorm Watch #316 to be in
effect through 8pm. Severe weather should be relatively brief
at any particular location due to the narrow width of the line
of thunderstorms. Main threat has been straight line winds.
Still monitoring for isolated tornado formation as well.

Once the warm front moves northeast, an unstable airmass will
remain in place, followed by a cold front extending from the low
over Michigan. A broad area should experience additional
showers and thunderstorms this evening and into the overnight
hours, mainly over southern locations. Some strong to severe
storms will still be possible, though surface based instability
will be at a diurnal minimum. Heavy downpours leading to
localized flooding will also be possible.

All locations will see mild low temperatures in the 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As a cold front containing plentiful moisture continues to
progress to Eastern Ohio, the threat for showers and
thunderstorms will decrease through the day on Monday, with dry
weather arriving by Monday evening. The dry period is expected
to last through Monday night in most locations as weak high
pressure pushes in from the southwest. The exception may be over
far northern counties where a weak disturbance could trigger a
few showers.

Temperatures will slip a bit due to cold advection, with highs
in the 70s followed by lows in the upper 50s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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No large scale changes were made to the extended forecast for this
period. Getting forecast out early to focus on ongoing weather this
afternoon. For Tuesday/Wednesday, did not see the overall threat of
thunder in the weather pattern with most unstable CAPE values <500
J/kg with a brief localized area just above this value skimming
central OH in the morning. Have removed thunder in favor of shower
activity for this period as thunder will not be the primary weather
type.

A couple of upper level disturbances will interact with an
overturning lower atmosphere due to cold advection. Some shower
activity is expected from Tuesday through the day Wednesday. A dry
period will be found from Wednesday night through the day on
Saturday as high pressure dominates the synoptic pattern. S/w energy
butting into the western edge of the upper ridge with a southerly
flow ahead of it and a trailing surface cold front will bring the
next threat of shower and thunderstorm activity beginning Saturday
night. Models are not in much agreement in timing and evolution of
the mass fields beginning Saturday night with the Euro and Canadian
models outpacing the GFS.

With the passage of the cold front prior to the long term time
period, temperatures will be cooler. High temperatures in the 60s
and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s will begin to rebound Saturday,
then rise to near 80 as lows drop to the low 60s for Sunday and
Monday.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Aviation will be impacted this afternoon by a line of strong to
severe thunderstorms. Gusts over 40 knots are likely at most
sites, with visibilities down to IFR and ceilings MVFR. The
duration of the will be around 1 to 2 hours at each TAF site,
arriving at CVG and LUK near 18z, DAY and ILN 19z, reaching CMH
and LCK around 21Z. A lull in thunderstorms is forecast for
late this afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are forecast for
this evening, though strength may be diminished compared to the
initial round. Later tonight as storms diminish again, MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop as the lower atmosphere
approaches saturation. VFR is likely to return to CVG LUK DAY
and ILN by 18z Monday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Coniglio