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875
FXUS62 KRAH 110728
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
328 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbances will pass over the Mid Atlantic and
Carolinas through the weekend, as a warm and humid air mass holds in
place.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 320 AM Friday...

* Significantly less convective coverage expected today compared to
  the past several days.

* Hot and humid today with heat indices back into the mid 90s to low
  100s.

In between the departing detached shortwave over the eastern
Carolinas and trough shifting through the central Plains, H5 heights
will subtly rise over the southern Mid-Atlantic (around 20m in
12hrs) through the daylight hours. Additionally, the brief
northwesterly flow aloft will help shift the seasonably anomalous
deep-layer moisture, which has plagued central NC since TS Chantal,
will finally shift out into the western Atlantic. These two shifts
in the synoptic pattern will result in significantly less convective
coverage over central NC compared to the past several days with most
locations expected to remain dry today.

Although the mid/upper levels of the thermodynamic and synoptic
environment will be different, the surface airmass will remain
unchanged as southwesterly to southerly surface flow will prevail.
This will result in a still warm and humid afternoon. Surface dew
points in the low/mid 70s should also result in 1000-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE with diurnal heating. Poor lapse rates through the thermo-
profile and rising mid-level heights will make convective
development and maintenance difficult, but not impossible, over a
majority of central NC. The primary exception will likely be across
the Foothills into the western Piedmont of NC where terrain
circulations and steeper low-level lapse rates should initiate
convection by early afternoon. This activity may slowly drift
southeastward into central NC by the middle to late afternoon.

Although most locations will remain dry, the 00z HREF and 18z REFS
are in good agreement that a couple extremely isolated slow moving
showers may still produce a quick 1 to 2.5 inches of rainfall. If
this were to occur over the still vulnerable locations of the
Piedmont (Winston-Salem to Roxboro to Fayetteville to Rockingham to
Lexington) or directly over an urban area, isolated flash flooding
may still be possible. High temperatures will range from the upper
80s to low 90s with heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s.
Overnight lows will remain seasonably mild in the low/mid 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 320 AM Friday...

The short term discussion will be updated shortly...
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Thursday...

The extended forecast doesn`t feature much in the way of synoptic
features, which means there won`t be much variation in the forecast
through the period. While a cold front is forecast to be along the
west side of the Appalachians on Monday and approaching central
North Carolina by Tuesday, the level of confidence this many days
out in a front making it through the region is low. Monday is the
day with the greatest coverage of 60% chances of showers/storms,
although every day in the extended forecast ranges from 40 to 60%
chances for precipitation somewhere across the forecast area. As is
typical with North Carolina summertime convection, the most likely
times for precipitation are the afternoon and evening, with minimal
coverage during the overnight and morning hours. The highs/lows will
stay similar, near 90 and 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /0720Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 320 AM Friday...

As the trailing stratiform rain continues to dissipate, IFR to
LIFR cigs and MVFR to IFR vsbys are expected to fill in at FAY,
RWI, and eventually RDU. At the Triad terminals, SCT to BKN
LIFR cigs have developed and will likely persist for at least a
few hours. Some scattering is possible through early morning,
but confidence is low. Gradual improvement to VFR is expected
through the morning hours at all TAF sites. Coverage of
showers/storms this afternoon/evening appears to be much less
than previous days. Probabilities for terminal impacts from
convection is 10 to 25% and precludes the addition for PROB30s
in the 06z TAFs at this time (best times will be anywhere
between 17z and 23z).

Looking beyond 06z Sat, the overall pattern will remain largely
unchanged into early next week, with a risk for early-morning
sub- VFR fog/stratus, and a chance for showers and storms each
afternoon into the evening.
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&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Swiggett
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Swiggett/Hartfield