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129
FXUS65 KREV 271951
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1251 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

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* Breezy conditions today and again this weekend with dry air in
  place could bring elevated fire weather concerns and periods of
  choppy lakes.

* For next week, above average temperatures return with typical
  afternoon breezes and very low chances for thunderstorms. Triple
  digit heat looks more likely for the July 4th holiday weekend.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...

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A departing trough across the Great Basin will produce breezy W-NW
winds across the region with gusts up to 30 mph through early this
evening. For Friday, a flat ridge of high pressure will bring
lighter SW-W winds with temperatures warming up to the lower 90s
for western NV and lower 80s for Sierra communities.

For the weekend, another trough brushing across the northwest US
will bring increased breezes both days, with gusts again near 30
mph. Dry conditions will prevail, although a few simulations
bring a low-end 10-15% possibility for isolated showers/thunder
to parts of northeast CA-far northwest NV Sunday afternoon.

For next week, the overall pattern continues to favor dry
conditions with northwest flow aloft transitioning to a
prevailing high pressure ridge. The return to triple digit heat
could return to lower elevations as soon as Wednesday, but appears
more likely for the July 4th holiday weekend. The latest blended
guidance has trended toward the more aggressive ridge scenarios
portrayed by the ECMWF/GFS deterministic data, with about 40-70%
chance of 100+ degrees, and even 15-30% chance of 105+ degrees
from July 5-7. For Tahoe area communities, the probability of 90+
degrees increases to 30-50% for these same days. Even if the more
extreme scenario doesn`t occur, it`s a good idea to prepare for
plenty of summer heat through the long holiday weekend. MJD
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&&

.AVIATION...

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* Breezy W-NW wind gusts around 25 kt expected through 03-05Z this
  evening, with lighter SW-W winds (gusts 15-20 kt) on Friday.
  Winds increase to speeds similar to today each afternoon this
  weekend, producing periods of turbulence near/east of the Sierra
  crest.

* VFR conditions prevail through at least the start of July. MJD
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

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* Drier air will continue spreading across western NV with minimum
  RH dropping to around 10% this afternoon. W-NW gusts of 25-30
  mph will also be present, producing marginally critical fire
  weather conditions for a few locations in western NV.

* We`ll see similar wind speeds return each afternoon for Saturday
  and Sunday with minimum RH between 10-15% for most lower
  elevations, and limited RH recovery especially for mid-slope
  thermal belts. While no watches or warnings are planned, the
  continued drying of vegetation will keep elevated fire weather
  concerns when winds increase beyond typical zephyr speeds.
  Further heating and drying of vegetation will continue through
  the first week of July. MJD
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&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$