-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
102
FXUS61 KRNK 290858
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
458 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley tonight and Wednesday
pushing a cold front through the Mid Atlantic region along with
isolated showers. Dry and cooler high pressure will build in
behind this front for Thursday and Friday with below normal
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) A few showers expected again this afternoon with frontal
passage...

Overall pattern features trough in the east and ridging over the
west. Another shortwave embedded within the longwave flow will
pass across the region this afternoon. Mix of sun and clouds
today, starting the day with mostly clear skies, but will have
clouds develop throughout the day. Will be enough lift with the
passage of this wave/cold front for isolated showers in the
afternoon. Best chance for any precipitation will be across the
mountains and southern Shenandoah Valley.

Winds also breezy in advance of the front. West winds will
increase by late morning and will remain gusty into the
afternoon. Some 20mph range gusts possible in the higher
terrain.

Cooler/drier air arrives behind the front tonight with
temperatures dropping into the low 50s and upper 40s in the
mountains. Mid 50s for the lower elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 430 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1). Unseasonably cool through the period.

2). Benign and largely dry weather expected through the period.

A broad and deep upper low anchored over eastern Canada will
only drift very slowly eastward through this period. This will
be the main player in the weather across the eastern U.S.
providing an unseasonably cool and dry northerly flow into the
region through the period. While a few light rain showers remain
possible across mainly the mountains of West Virginia, the
chance for showers even there will diminish as the trough axis
shifts east of the region. Variable mostly daytime low/mid
clouds from steep lapse rates given strong late May/early June
insolation and unseasonably cold air aloft on the order of +6C
on Thursday will dimiish going into Friday as temperatures aloft
begin to warm as the upper trough shifts further east.

With 850mb temperatures Thursday in the single digits roughly in
the +5C to +8C range, below normal temperatures will continue,
especially at night. Thursday promises to be the coldest morning
of the week with lows in the upper 30s possible at locations
such as Burkes Garden and Lewisburg and near 40 at Blacksburg
and other similar locations along/west of the Blue Ridge. Most
areas, however, will see lows in the 40s early Thursday. Daytime
temperatures will warm into the 60s/70s west and mostly 70s
east Thursday and Friday. These minimum temperatures are roughly
10-15 degrees below normal and the maximum temperatures are
around 5-10 degrees below normal for late May/early June.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate Confidence in TEmperatures,
- High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate to High Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed,
- No Thunderstorms Expected Through This Period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Temperatures on a warming trend, and dry weather through most
of the weekend.

2. Rain chances increase next work week.

Surface high pressure will be settled over much of the eastern US
through most of the weekend, moving eastward and offshore by late
Sunday. Mid level flow transitions to more zonal by Sunday, with a
shortwave trough expected to move along it and into the area late in
the weekend, while an area of surface low pressure heads eastward
into the northern Mid Atlantic. Return flow off the Atlantic from
the high as it tracks eastward will increase moisture in the region,
and with the passage of the shortwave, expecting chances for showers
and possible thunderstorms to return to the area by Sunday
afternoon. Chances for afternoon showers and storms continue Monday
and Tuesday, though confidence is lower on timing and coverage,
given the spread in the long range deterministic guidance.

Subsidence from the surface high and ample daytime heating will
start temperatures on a warming trend through the forecast period,
and highs are expected to climb back to seasonal normals, in the 70s
to 80s, and lows in the 50s to 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Mostly VFR throughout the valid TAF period.

VFR this morning, but the potential for some patchy valley fog
still remains through daybreak. LWB may experience some vsby
reductions.

Otherwise VFR with scattered clouds through late morning.
Another disturbance may bring a few shower/storms toward BLF/LWB
this afternoon but coverage is too low overall to have in the
tafs.

The wind backs to the west ahead of the wave/front today with
some gustiness to 20 kts possible, then shifts to the northwest
behind the front tonight.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR much of the week, aside from potential fog at LWB/BCB early
in the mornings. Storms may bring sub-VFR Sunday afternoon but
low confidence.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG/WP
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...BMG