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047
FXUS63 KSGF 021809
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
109 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity return Today through Thursday.

- Thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday through Friday with
  severe storms...heavy rain and flooding possible.

- Slightly cooler temperatures and drier Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show an upper level ridge centered over
the lower Mississippi valley with the ridge axis extending
northeast into the Ohio valley. An upper level trough was
shifting east out of the Rockies into the plains and upper
Mississippi valley and has aided in convection developing and
pushing into the central plains into the upper Mississippi
valley region. A stationary front was located north-south over
far eastern Kansas with very moist and unstable air to the west
of the front, while areas across MO still had dewpoints in the
upper 50s to mid 60s for the most part.

Today: A warm front will lift northeast through the area this
morning and that warm, moist and unstable air mass will push
into the area. The area should remain capped during the day with
the bulk of the upper energy associated with the upper level
trough remaining to the northwest, the warm front to our north
and a cold front to the west of the area. So, thunderstorm
activity is not expected during the day. It will be hot and
humid though and we have a heat advisory for the western half of
the CWA. Temperatures today should reach the mid to upper 90s in
the west and the low to mid 90s in the east. Heat index values
will rise into the 101-108 degree range in the west and the mid
90s to around 102 in the east.

Tonight: The upper level shortwave will push across the upper
Mississippi valley region into the Great Lakes and should
flatten out the ridge over the area to where the upper level
flow will become more westerly to west-southwesterly. The
surface front will gradually slide southeast into the area along
with thunderstorm chances increasing...especially in the
northern CWA. There is a risk of heavy rain with the storms that
move into the northern CWA late tonight.

Wednesday: The front, upper level energy, abundant moisture and
instability will combine for renewed convection on Wednesday.
This will pose a slight risk(2/5) of severe storms during the
day with damaging wind as the main severe weather risk, along
with heavy rain and localized flooding. Temperature forecast
will be tricky with cloud cover and convective chances during
the day potentially limiting some of the daytime heating. If
some decrease in cloud cover can occur, there will be the
potential for another heat advisory needed for areas mainly
south of the cold front in southern Missouri. For now, we are
going with highs in the mid 80s in our northwest CWA to the
upper 90s in parts of MO along the MO/AR border, with heat index
values there in the 105 to 111 range.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Another upper level shortwave will begin to push through the
area Wednesday night into Thursday which will bring additional
thunderstorm chances(30-70%) to the area on the 4th of July. The
main wave looks to push across the area Thursday night into
Friday with the Thunderstorm chances continuing into Friday
morning. Thursdays temperatures will also be dependent on cloud
cover and precipitation coverage. We are currently going with
highs in the upper 80s in central MO to the upper 90s in the
southwest corner of MO and heat index values form around 100 to
110.

Surface high pressure should move in behind the front during the
day Friday with clearing taking place along with a cooler air
mass which should linger into Saturday with highs both days in
the 80s.

Another upper wave moves into the area though on Sunday into
Monday which will bring the thunderstorm chances back into the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions will persist through tonight. Surface winds will
remain gusty out of the south this afternoon with gusts in the
25-30 knot range around Joplin.

Surface winds will diminish this evening however low level wind
shear will develop across southern Missouri by 06 UTC as a low
level jet stream strengthens over the region. Low level wind
shear will diminish by 13 UTC on Wednesday.

An approaching cold front will then bring the potential for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region starting
Wednesday morning. We have opted to include a PROB30 group for
Joplin and Springfield to cover this potential. Brief MVFR and
IFR visibilities can be expected with any storms.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024


Record High Temperatures:

July 2:
KSGF: 100/1933
KJLN: 103/2011

July 3:
KSGF: 98/2011
KJLN: 100/2011




Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 2:
KSGF: 76/1933

July 3:
KSGF: 77/2018

July 4:
KSGF: 78/1901

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
     066>069-077>080-088>090-093>095-101>103.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann
CLIMATE...Nelson