Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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007 FXUS65 KABQ 270603 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1203 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Historically high moisture is moving across NM for today and Thursday causing rain showers and thunderstorms. Torrential rainfall will be possible from any rain shower and thunderstorms which can rapidly cause flash flooding. A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur mainly in NE NM with hail, winds, and torrential rainfall being the main threats. Lower moisture on Friday should lead to a brief reduction in the rain showers and thunderstorms activity. The weekend and next week will see abnormally high amounts of moisture push back across NM leading to further vigorous rain showers and thunderstorms that may produce torrential rainfall. Dont go into flood waters. TURN AROUND, DONT DROWN! && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Today and Thursday has historic amounts of moisture moving across NM. For today the PWAT is 1 in to 1.75 in across NM which put it in the top 10% to max of moisture events for this time of the year. For Thursday the moisture amounts decrease a little for PWAT of 1 in to 1.5 in which puts it in the top 10% to top 1% of moisture events for this time of the year. This shear amount of moisture will allow any rain shower or thunderstorms to produce torrential amounts of rainfall. This torrential rainfall can rapidly cause flash flooding that can sweep away people and vehicles. Flood waters are deadly and easily hide their danger do not go into them even if it looks safe. TURN AROUND, DONT DROWN! Today the rain showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing across much of NM and will continue to do so into the overnight hours. These storms will be supported by the passage of a weak upper level trough moving across the N side of the high pressure. The thunderstorms today have very little storm motion so they will drift around with small footprints. In NE NM there will be higher levels of shear and instability which will allow for a few of the storms this afternoon and evening to become strong to severe. The main threat for any strong to severe thunderstorms will be damaging winds, torrential rainfall, and large hail. The thunderstorms will persist into the overnight hours with the overall activity and intensity of the storms decreasing. This is due to them losing both daytime heating and the support of the weak trough. The rain showers and thunderstorms activity will increase again during Thursday morning as daytime heating adds to the instability across NM. The high pressure that was sitting across NM should become flattened due to the passage of the early trough on Wednesday and the deepening of a trough to the NW of the region. This flattened high pressure will allow westerly winds to setup aloft that will give the rain showers and thunderstorms a more progressive eastward movement increasing the area they can impact. These storms should in general be stronger as the increase winds aloft will allow them to vent better. A few storms could become strong to severe across the northern third of NM with damaging winds, torrential rainfall, and large hail being the main threats. Eventually the westerly winds will push the moisture out of NM which will cause the rain showers and thunderstorms to diminish during the late afternoon through the evening hours. Then by the overnight hours the rain showers and thunderstorms should in large have ceased across NM. The silver lining of all this moisture is that will help to prevent NM from getting to hot. This will see the highs in the 90s to low 100s today fall to the 80s and 90s for Thursday. SH && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 NM has a high chance to see continued active weather for the end of the week through mid next week as moisture causes rain showers and thunderstorms each day. Friday should a relative minimum for the rain showers and thunderstorms as the flattened high pressure will allow westerly winds to push moisture out of NM. The little remaining moisture will still allow for a few rain showers and thunderstorms to form. These should in large produce more limited rainfall but in the SE portions of NM where moisture still remains elevated heavier rainfall may still occur. Without the ample moisture Friday will be on the hotter side with most valley areas returning to the 90s and 100s. The highs in the hottest spot could even reach heat advisory levels during the afternoon and evening. Then for the weekend the high has a moderately high chance of pushing back to the west setting up a similar pattern to today and Thursday. This pattern is still showing signs of pushing in another round of abnormally high moisture across NM. This batch of abnormally high moisture is already flagging to be in the top 10% of moisture events for this time of year with PWATs in the 1 to 1.4 inch range. This moisture streams in from the Gulf of Mexico pushing into NM from the SE. The moisture coupled with daytime heating will allow for further rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms each day. These storms could be capable of producing copious amounts of rainfall due to just how moist the environment is expected to be. To further complicate the scenario there is a low to moderate chance that a cold front will push NE to SW across NM late on Saturday. This front would then stall in the central portions of NM around the Albuquerque area. If this front does materialize then prior to its stalling it may act as a forcing mechanism that can organize and intensify rain showers and thunderstorms. Once it stalls it would still act as a forcing area as moisture overruns it increasing rain intensity and amounts around and along the front. So this front could prove a key feature during this weekend for rainfall chances if it does manage to push its way into NM. With all the moisture and dynamics that may be in play flooding remains a large concern across NM for the weekend. Monday to Wednesday has a moderate chance of keeping the abnormally high moisture across NM leading to continued rain showers and thunderstorms each day. This moisture seems to get pushed more to the western and northern portions of NM as a more typical monsoon pattern sets up. This would mean that western to central and northern NM will have better chances to see the rain and thunderstorms compared to eastern NM. Flooding remains a concern for NM so long as the abnormally high moisture is present. SH && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 SHRA/TS drifting over the region late this evening will continue thru much of the night before dissipating around sunrise. Direct hits from the heavier SHRA may produce brief MVFR vsbys overnight just about anywhere. An area of SHRA may persist over the northern high terrain after sunrise before evolving into TSRA again after 1pm. Other high terrain areas will see SHRA/TS redevelop around 11am then move eastward into nearby valleys and highlands thru the late afternoon and evening hours. Some of this activity may be strong with hail, high winds, and torrential rainfall. Direct hits will be capable of producing brief IFR. Lingering SHRA are likely to persist well into Thursday evening for many areas once again. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Historic levels of moisture are present over NM today and Thursday. For today this is causing the ongoing rain showers and thunderstorms that are already producing torrential rainfall. The overall storm motion is a weak drift with the storms producing fairly small rain foot prints. However the slow motions is allowing a vast amount of rainfall to accumulate over small areas within a short amount of time. This setup can rapidly lead to flash flooding and life threatening debris flows on any fire area or burn scar. Thursday should see the storm motion become a little more progressive with storms moving generally eastward at 15 to 25 mph. However this motion may allow for the storms to be generally stronger with higher rain rates. So Thursday will still have continued threat for flash flooding and life threatening debris flows on any of the fire areas or burn scars. Friday should see a brief reprieve with lesser rain and thunderstorms chances with lower levels of moisture over NM. Then for the weekend another batch of extremely high moisture surges back across NM leading to further rounds of vigorous rain showers and thunderstorms. These rain showers and thunderstorms are already looking very favorable to produce copious to torrential rainfall. The threat for these very wet storms will persist through to mid next week. The silver lining to all this moisture is that the RH remains elevated with excellent overnight recoveries. Flood waters can easily sweep away people, vehicles, and roads. STAY ALIVE! DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOOD WATERS! SH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 66 86 63 92 / 50 60 20 0 Dulce........................... 53 82 48 86 / 50 70 20 5 Cuba............................ 59 80 57 85 / 70 80 30 5 Gallup.......................... 57 83 56 89 / 50 70 20 0 El Morro........................ 58 79 58 84 / 70 80 30 5 Grants.......................... 58 83 56 89 / 80 80 20 10 Quemado......................... 60 81 58 85 / 50 70 30 10 Magdalena....................... 65 83 64 88 / 60 80 40 10 Datil........................... 61 80 60 84 / 60 80 30 20 Reserve......................... 58 87 56 92 / 60 70 20 10 Glenwood........................ 70 94 68 97 / 40 50 10 10 Chama........................... 52 76 48 81 / 60 80 30 10 Los Alamos...................... 64 79 61 84 / 60 90 30 10 Pecos........................... 60 81 61 86 / 60 70 30 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 50 77 47 82 / 60 80 30 10 Red River....................... 50 70 48 75 / 60 80 30 10 Angel Fire...................... 48 75 47 80 / 50 80 20 5 Taos............................ 58 81 53 88 / 60 70 20 5 Mora............................ 55 81 55 85 / 50 70 20 10 Espanola........................ 64 86 61 92 / 60 70 20 5 Santa Fe........................ 63 81 61 87 / 60 70 30 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 64 84 61 89 / 60 70 20 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 87 68 92 / 60 70 30 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 89 67 94 / 60 60 30 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 69 91 67 96 / 50 50 20 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 88 68 94 / 50 60 20 5 Belen........................... 68 91 66 97 / 60 60 30 5 Bernalillo...................... 69 89 68 95 / 50 60 20 5 Bosque Farms.................... 66 91 64 96 / 60 60 30 0 Corrales........................ 69 90 68 95 / 50 60 20 5 Los Lunas....................... 68 91 66 96 / 60 60 30 0 Placitas........................ 67 86 66 91 / 60 70 30 5 Rio Rancho...................... 69 88 68 94 / 50 60 20 5 Socorro......................... 71 93 70 98 / 60 60 40 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 81 63 86 / 60 70 30 5 Tijeras......................... 65 84 63 89 / 60 70 30 5 Edgewood........................ 62 85 61 89 / 60 60 30 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 60 86 59 91 / 60 60 30 5 Clines Corners.................. 60 81 60 87 / 60 60 30 0 Mountainair..................... 62 84 61 89 / 70 70 40 5 Gran Quivira.................... 62 84 62 89 / 70 70 40 10 Carrizozo....................... 68 89 68 94 / 70 70 50 10 Ruidoso......................... 62 80 63 86 / 60 80 40 30 Capulin......................... 60 83 59 88 / 50 60 10 10 Raton........................... 60 87 58 92 / 30 60 10 5 Springer........................ 63 88 61 94 / 30 60 10 5 Las Vegas....................... 60 82 60 87 / 60 70 20 5 Clayton......................... 68 89 68 97 / 50 30 10 5 Roy............................. 64 86 64 92 / 60 50 10 5 Conchas......................... 69 93 70 99 / 70 30 20 0 Santa Rosa...................... 68 88 68 94 / 60 50 20 0 Tucumcari....................... 69 94 72 101 / 60 10 10 0 Clovis.......................... 71 95 72 100 / 50 20 10 5 Portales........................ 71 96 73 100 / 40 10 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 71 92 71 99 / 60 20 20 0 Roswell......................... 75 100 76 104 / 50 20 20 10 Picacho......................... 68 91 67 95 / 50 70 30 30 Elk............................. 64 90 64 93 / 60 70 30 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NMZ201-202-204>207-211>224-226-229-233-239. Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ211-214-215-226-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...42