939
FXUS65 KABQ 042108
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
308 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage over southern,
central, and eastern areas Friday night through Saturday evening.
After dry weather in most places Sunday, a moist backdoor front
will surge into the state Sunday night and Monday increasing
the coverage and rainfall intensity of thunderstorms again Sunday
night through Wednesday. Some thunderstorms may turn severe each
afternoon and evening Friday through Wednesday with a risk of
large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall. In
addition, the backdoor front will produce a strong east wind below
canyons opening into the central valley Sunday night into Monday
with the potential for peak wind gusts around 60 mph below Tijeras
Canyon in Albuquerque, for southeast wind gusts up to 45 mph in
Santa Fe, and for east wind gusts around 45 mph in Carrizozo.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A backdoor front is bringing moisture westward into the eastern
plains and is forecast to progress west into the RGV overnight,
resulting in a gusty east canyon wind with gusts to between 35-40mph
likely at KABQ. The combination of surface convergence from the
front and daytime heating has triggered a few storms over Roosevelt
and far eastern Chaves Counties this afternoon. The latest CAMs show
these storms drifting east out of our area through the afternoon
hours. Meanwhile, drying continues under the influence of ridging
aloft across western and portions of central NM, with dewpoint
temperatures currently 15-25 degrees less than 24hrs ago.
The latest CAMs continue to show a round of elevated convection
developing across the northeast plains/highlands and northern
portions of the east central plains, which could bring soaking
rains. The backdoor front is modeled by the NAM to stop westward
progress on Friday between the RGV and Continental Divide, but the
moisture depth will likely be too shallow to produce convection west
of the central mountain chain. Different story on Friday along/east
of the central mountain chain, where low level moisture will be
sufficient to support deep convection. However, will start the day
off with low stratus and easterly upslope flow keeping things on the
cool side, leading to later than normal convective initiation. Both
the latest GFS and NAM show generous qpf near the Sacramento Complex
late Friday afternoon/evening, so will issue a Flash Flood Watch for
the South Central Mountains. Any convection that develops late
Friday across northeast NM could become severe given 0-6km bulk
shear modeled at 35-40kts. The GFS is more bullish holding onto
convection overnight Friday night, while the NAM stabilizes much
quicker during the evening hours. Will hold onto chances PoPs
overnight Friday as a hedge.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A shortwave trough in northwest flow aloft will clip northeast New
Mexico on Friday night, then additional perturbations on Saturday
afternoon and evening, keeping thunderstorms going over southern,
central, and eastern areas. Some storms may turn severe with
large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall. Drier air
will filter over most of the forecast area from the northwest on
Sunday, putting a damper on convection. An exception will be along
and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, where a moist
backdoor front is forecast to arrive and trigger showers and
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. Then, storms are forecast over
more of eastern NM as the front makes further progress Sunday
night. Sunday night into Monday, the moist backdoor front will
surge through gaps in the central mountain chain with a strong
east wind below canyons opening into the central valley. The
potential exists for peak wind gusts around 60 mph below Tijeras
Canyon in Albuquerque, for southeast wind gusts up to 45 mph in
Santa Fe, and for east wind gusts around 45 mph in Carrizozo. The
moisture increase with the front, and a persistent, relatively
moist, low level return flow out of the southeast, will result in
an uptick in thunderstorm coverage and rainfall intensity over all
but the Four Corners area Monday through Wednesday. There will be
an increased risk of flash flooding on these days, especially
below recent burn scars. Further, north and northwest flow aloft
around a mid level high pressure system centered over the Great
Basin will probably enhance shear enough for some thunderstorms to
turn severe each afternoon Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist across western
NM, but a backdoor front will bring increasing moisture and areas
of low stratus to eastern NM overnight into Friday morning. MVFR
cigs are forecast to develop at KLVS and KTCC overnight, with low
probabilities for IFR conditions. Improvement Friday morning will
be slow. The backdoor front will create a gusty east canyon/gap
wind at KABQ and KSAF overnight, but winds are forecast to remain
below KABQ Airport Weather Warning threshold at this time.
Isolated convection will impact the southeast and northeast
periphery of our area this afternoon/evening, but forecast to
remain away from our TAF sites. KROW would be the most likely of
the group to be impacted by convection this afternoon, but very
low probability.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A backdoor front will bring moisture and chances for wetting storms
westward to the central mountain chain tonight through the weekend,
with potential for burn scar flash flooding. Western NM will be hot,
dry and unstable from Friday through the weekend, with a few hours
of critical fire weather conditions likely across northwest NM
Sunday due to deep layer mixing of stronger northwest winds aloft. A
stronger backdoor front is forecast to race southwest across the
area Sunday night, recharging moisture and setting the stage for an
active early to mid week period with daily rounds of wetting storms
and the potential for burn scar flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  92  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  44  86  43  87 /   0   0   0   5
Cuba............................  50  85  50  86 /   0   0   5  10
Gallup..........................  47  91  49  91 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  54  87  52  86 /   0   0   5   5
Grants..........................  49  89  49  89 /   0   0   5  10
Quemado.........................  54  89  53  88 /   0   0  10  20
Magdalena.......................  61  88  62  89 /   0  10  20  30
Datil...........................  57  88  57  87 /   0  10  20  20
Reserve.........................  54  95  53  93 /   5   0  20  30
Glenwood........................  66  99  67  96 /  10  10  20  40
Chama...........................  45  81  45  81 /   0   5   5  10
Los Alamos......................  60  82  56  83 /   0  20  20  20
Pecos...........................  56  78  55  83 /  20  30  40  30
Cerro/Questa....................  45  79  41  81 /  10  20  30  20
Red River.......................  44  70  42  73 /  20  30  30  30
Angel Fire......................  40  73  40  76 /  20  30  40  30
Taos............................  49  82  50  84 /   5  20  30  10
Mora............................  50  75  49  81 /  20  30  40  30
Espanola........................  58  88  57  90 /   0  10  20  10
Santa Fe........................  59  82  57  84 /   5  20  40  20
Santa Fe Airport................  60  85  57  87 /   0  10  30  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  88  63  91 /   5  10  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  90  62  93 /   0   5  20  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  64  92  62  95 /   0   5  20  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  91  63  94 /   0   5  20  10
Belen...........................  60  94  60  95 /   0   5  20  10
Bernalillo......................  64  92  62  94 /   0   5  20  10
Bosque Farms....................  60  92  59  94 /   0   5  20  10
Corrales........................  62  92  62  95 /   0   5  20  10
Los Lunas.......................  60  93  60  95 /   0   5  20  10
Placitas........................  64  88  61  90 /   5  10  20  10
Rio Rancho......................  64  91  62  94 /   0   5  20  10
Socorro.........................  66  96  66  96 /   0  10  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  82  56  85 /  10  20  20  20
Tijeras.........................  60  85  58  87 /  10  10  30  20
Edgewood........................  58  84  55  87 /   5  20  30  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  84  54  89 /   5  20  30  20
Clines Corners..................  55  75  53  82 /  10  20  40  30
Mountainair.....................  57  83  55  86 /  10  20  30  30
Gran Quivira....................  57  84  55  87 /   5  20  40  40
Carrizozo.......................  64  87  62  89 /  10  30  40  60
Ruidoso.........................  57  77  56  81 /  20  60  50  70
Capulin.........................  53  74  52  80 /  30  30  40  30
Raton...........................  55  79  54  86 /  20  30  30  20
Springer........................  57  79  55  87 /  20  20  40  20
Las Vegas.......................  55  73  53  81 /  30  20  50  30
Clayton.........................  57  78  58  85 /  40  20  40  30
Roy.............................  58  74  56  83 /  50  20  50  30
Conchas.........................  62  81  61  90 /  60  30  60  30
Santa Rosa......................  61  79  60  86 /  30  30  50  30
Tucumcari.......................  62  80  60  89 /  60  30  50  30
Clovis..........................  64  79  62  89 /  40  30  50  30
Portales........................  64  82  63  90 /  30  30  40  30
Fort Sumner.....................  65  82  63  89 /  30  20  50  30
Roswell.........................  72  89  69  94 /  20  30  40  30
Picacho.........................  64  83  62  88 /  20  40  40  50
Elk.............................  60  82  58  86 /  20  50  50  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...11