711
FXUS65 KABQ 062350 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
550 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 504 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Cancelled the Flood Watch for the south central mountains. Dry air
has filtered over the area from the northwest.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Fewer showers and thunderstorms are being observed across northern
and central New Mexico today with most of the activity expected to
stay east of the Sacramento and Capitan mountains and into the
eastern plains through the early evening. Drier, hotter and
breezy to windy conditions are then expected Sunday, eliminating
storm chances for much of the area. The exception will come late
Sunday when a cold front backs into New Mexico from the northeast
with a few strong storms possible near and east of the Sangre de
Cristo mountains late in the day before spreading into the east
central plains Sunday night. The front will lead to very gusty
winds in eastern portions of the Albuquerque metro area Sunday
night. The front will also bring more scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms into the upcoming work week, especially
on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 209 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Stout upper high has swollen over CA with 500 mb heights of 598
decameters while an upper low has exited MT and is moving into the
Dakotas as an open shortwave trough. This is keeping northwesterly
flow aloft over NM with pronounced drying observed in surface
dewpoints and PWATs over northwestern and surrounding areas of the
state. This has limited convective initiation to areas near and
just east of the Sacramentos and Capitan ranges with additional
development expected to happen in the east central and
northeastern plains on a very sparse and isolated basis through
the late afternoon and early evening. Storms are modeled to
quickly dissipate after sunset with cold pools likely being too
minimal to sustain or regenerate new convection this evening.

Into Sunday, the west coast high weakens and nudges slightly
eastward while cyclonic curvature to the westerly flow dips into
the northern and central Great Plains. This will keep some lighter
northwesterly flow going aloft of NM, but the bigger story will
likely be at the surface when a cold front will drop down the
plains and enter northeastern zones in the afternoon. The front
will not make it into Roswell, and their projected high of 105 F
meets Heat Advisory criteria there, so will be hoisting this
statement with this forecast package. The front could initiate
storms as the upslope surface flow meets the east faces of the
Sangre de Cristos very late in the afternoon and more-so into the
evening. A deepening and broadening convective cold pool will
develop over the OK/TX panhandles and this could help initiate
cells into east central NM Sunday night. The deepening convective
cold pool will only intensify high surface pressure over eastern
NM and west TX Sunday evening and overnight, causing a very strong
gap wind to develop in centrally prone areas of NM, including the
eastern ABQ metro. A High Wind Watch will also be issued to
account for this.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 209 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Gap winds will slacken in central areas late Monday morning, but a
widespread synoptic easterly surface flow will remain in place
over much of NM, generally from the Continental Divide eastward.
Meanwhile, aloft the high will broaden over the western states
while the upper trough moves slightly eastward into middle
America. This would set the stage for good upslope on the Divide
with the front advecting moisture into many central and eastern
zones, but instability questions remain for much of the eastern
plains zones. This could limit storm in many eastern zones, while
central and portions of some western zones observe an uptick. The
central mountain chain would likely retain enough upslope to
overcome any CIN or stable layers, likely putting our burn scars
at risk for heavy rain again. A very similar trend holds for
Tuesday with the main difference being just a veering of surface
winds to a bit more of a southeasterly direction in some eastern
zones while any lingering stability gets eroded away. With the
flow aloft staying northerly both Monday and Tuesday, this would
present quite a bit of directional shear despite light speeds, and
any storms that develop could turn strong to severe, particularly
those that develop on the east slopes and retain their upslope
inflow.

The pattern looks to be slow to evolve into the remainder of the
week. The surface winds would tend to veer more southerly while
the high remains entrenched over the Great Basin. This would keep
deep monsoon moisture in place over the majority of the forecast
area (the exception being the northwestern and perhaps far west
central zones) while directional shear remains elevated. Look for
scattered to numerous storms each day with a locally heavy
rainfall threat through Thursday. To end the work week, the high
will finally begin migrating northeastward, and this could begin
to redistribute the moisture a bit farther westward. This could
lead to a downtrend in convection for our eastern zones.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Very dry northwest flow aloft continues tonight and Sunday with
VFR conditions forecast areawide during the next 24 hours. An
unseasonably strong backdoor cold front will push southward from
southeast CO and into the northeast quarter of the state Sunday,
advancing rapidly south and west during the late afternoon and
early evening. Dry conditions will light to moderate northwest
winds Sunday afternoon will give wave to strong east winds Sunday
evening through Sunday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Dry air is currently invading New Mexico from the northwest with
dewpoints and surface humidity plummeting over a large swath of
the northwestern and north central zones. Breezy conditions have
also been observed this afternoon, but these west northwest winds
are only forecast to strengthen more on Sunday as a disturbance
moves into the northern and central Great Plains, dragging drier,
hotter and gustier conditions into NM. Fire Weather Watch remains
intact for the northwestern plateau zone (Zone 101) with the
concern being the finer fuels and grasses that have had time to
cure and dry out, especially in a post Independence Day holiday
weekend with lingering firework activity. Many surrounding zones
will be nearly as dry as northwestern NM, but fortunately wind
speeds will be a bit lighter...gusty, but notably lighter than in
the northwest. A stout and moist backdoor cold front will enter NM
from the northeast Sunday and more-so into Sunday night, bringing
gusty and shifting winds, but the arrival of more moisture should
preclude critical conditions. Still, portions of the middle Rio
Grande valley could observe gusts of 40 to 60 mph immediately
downwind of vulnerable gaps and canyons Sunday night. The front
will recharge moisture and lead to a more active shower and
thunderstorm pattern next week (outside of the far northwestern
and west central zones). This wetter and generally more tranquil
pattern (from a wind standpoint) will keep fire weather concerns
at bay.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  94  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  44  87  44  84 /   0   0   0  40
Cuba............................  50  89  52  83 /   0   0   0  30
Gallup..........................  47  93  48  90 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  49  87  48  83 /   0   0   5  20
Grants..........................  48  91  52  85 /   0   0   0  20
Quemado.........................  52  89  52  87 /   0   0   5  20
Magdalena.......................  60  92  59  83 /   5   0   5  30
Datil...........................  54  89  54  84 /   0   0   5  30
Reserve.........................  51  95  53  93 /   0  10  10  30
Glenwood........................  64  99  64  98 /   5  10  10  30
Chama...........................  45  80  44  76 /   0   0   5  60
Los Alamos......................  60  86  57  77 /   0   0   5  60
Pecos...........................  54  87  53  75 /   0  10  10  60
Cerro/Questa....................  43  80  42  75 /   0  20  30  80
Red River.......................  40  72  41  65 /   5  30  30  80
Angel Fire......................  34  76  36  69 /   5  30  30  80
Taos............................  46  86  50  78 /   0   5  20  60
Mora............................  50  83  48  71 /   0  20  20  70
Espanola........................  56  92  56  84 /   0   0   5  50
Santa Fe........................  58  87  58  79 /   0   0  10  60
Santa Fe Airport................  56  91  56  82 /   0   0  10  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  62  94  63  84 /   0   0   0  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  96  65  86 /   0   0   0  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  57  98  58  88 /   0   0   0  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  62  96  64  88 /   0   0   0  20
Belen...........................  59  99  61  88 /   0   0   0  20
Bernalillo......................  60  96  62  88 /   0   0   0  30
Bosque Farms....................  56  98  58  88 /   0   0   0  20
Corrales........................  60  96  62  88 /   0   0   0  20
Los Lunas.......................  58  98  59  88 /   0   0   0  20
Placitas........................  61  93  61  84 /   0   0   0  30
Rio Rancho......................  62  95  63  87 /   0   0   0  20
Socorro.........................  65 101  67  91 /  10   0   5  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  88  57  78 /   0   0   5  40
Tijeras.........................  60  90  59  80 /   0   0   0  30
Edgewood........................  56  90  57  78 /   0   0   5  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  50  91  55  79 /   0   0   5  30
Clines Corners..................  54  87  53  72 /   0   5  10  40
Mountainair.....................  56  91  57  78 /   0   0   5  30
Gran Quivira....................  56  91  57  79 /   5   0   5  30
Carrizozo.......................  65  95  62  83 /  10   0   5  40
Ruidoso.........................  57  88  51  72 /  20   0   5  50
Capulin.........................  51  76  50  71 /  20  30  40  50
Raton...........................  52  83  53  76 /  10  20  40  50
Springer........................  53  88  55  78 /  10  20  30  50
Las Vegas.......................  54  85  52  71 /   0  10  20  60
Clayton.........................  59  82  57  77 /  20  20  30  30
Roy.............................  57  86  56  74 /  10  20  30  40
Conchas.........................  62  94  62  80 /  10   5  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  61  93  60  75 /   5   0  20  30
Tucumcari.......................  65  93  61  79 /  20   0  20  30
Clovis..........................  67  96  63  75 /  20   5  20  50
Portales........................  68  97  63  76 /  20   5  20  50
Fort Sumner.....................  66  97  63  76 /  10   0  20  30
Roswell.........................  70 105  69  83 /  20   0  10  30
Picacho.........................  64  97  62  77 /  20   0   5  40
Elk.............................  62  94  58  75 /  20   5   5  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for NMZ101.

High Wind Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for
NMZ219.

Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...33