Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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236 FXUS65 KABQ 272350 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 550 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Historically high moisture continues to move across NM today causing rain showers and thunderstorms, a few of which can be strong to severe. Torrential rainfall will be possible from any rain shower and thunderstorms which can rapidly cause flash flooding. Lower moisture on Friday leads to a brief reduction in the rain showers and thunderstorms activity. The weekend and next week will see abnormally high amounts of moisture push back across NM leading to further vigorous rain showers and thunderstorms that may produce torrential rainfall. Don`t go into deadly flood waters. TURN AROUND, DONT DROWN! && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Today has historic amounts of moisture moving across NM. The PWAT is 1 in to 1.5 in which puts it in the top 10% to possible even the max of moisture events for this time of the year. The shear amount of moisture will allow any rain shower or thunderstorms to produce torrential amounts of rainfall. Torrential rainfall can rapidly cause flash flooding that can sweep away people and vehicles! Flood waters are deadly and easily hide their danger! Do not go into them even if it looks safe! Most flood drowning deaths happen in vehicles! TURN AROUND, DONT DROWN! Today the rain showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing across much of NM and will continue to do so into evening hours. The high pressure which has been sitting across NM has been flattened allowing a trough to the NW to be more influential across NM. This is producing westerly winds aloft that is causing the ongoing rain showers and thunderstorms to move generally eastward. There will be some variation in storm motion with some storms traveling more NE while others travel more SE. These increased winds aloft are allowing the storms to be better ventilated so overall they are more vigorous than previous days. A few of these storms may even become strong to severe with the main threats being damaging winds, torrential rainfall, and even large hail. As the dynamics will be better in northern NM the chance of stronger storms will be highers there with chances decreasing to the S NM. While these storms will be moving the stronger nature of the storms will allow higher rainfall rates so the threat of flash flooding remains. This afternoon to overnight the westerly winds will push the moisture out of NM. This will cause the rain showers and thunderstorms to start to diminish during the evening hours and in large have ceased by the overnight hours. The silver lining of all this moisture is that will help to prevent NM from getting to hot with highs in the 80s to 90s today for the valleys. Friday should a relative minimum for rain showers and thunderstorm activity as there will be little moisture to form them. The limited amount of moisture will mean most of the storms will produce lighter rainfall. The exception will be in southern central NM near the Sacramento Complex where moisture will still be elevated. This area still has a least a small chance for storms to produce above normal rainfall. Without the ample moisture Friday will be on the hotter side with most valley areas returning to the 90s and 100s. SH && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 NM has a high chance to see continued active weather for the weekend through next Thursday as moisture causes rain showers and thunderstorms each day. This weekend the high pressure has a high chance of pushing back across much of NM with the western edge of its center mainly in the eastern part of NM. This pattern pushes another round of abnormally high moisture across NM from both the Gulf of Mexico to the SE and the Gulf of California to the SW. This batch of abnormally high moisture is still flagging to be in the top 10% or even higher of moisture events for this time of year with PWATs in the 1 to 1.4 inch range. The moisture coupled with daytime heating will allow for further rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms each day mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. These storms could be capable of producing copious amounts of rainfall due to just how moist the environment is expected to be. Flooding remains very much a concern for the weekend due to the shear amount of moisture expected across NM. To further complicate the scenario on Saturday there is a moderate chance that a back door cold front pushes NE to SW across NM Saturday morning. This front would then stall in the central portions of NM around or to the south of the Albuquerque area. This front prior to its stalling can act as a forcing mechanism that can organize and intensify rain showers and thunderstorms. Once it stalls it would still act as a forcing area as moisture overruns it increasing rain intensity and amounts around and along the front. So this front could prove a key feature during this weekend for rainfall chances and amounts for Saturday. Sunday should see the high pressure become stronger and push further westward into NM. This would shift the moisture more towards the central and western portions of NM making those regions far more likely to see rain showers and thunderstorms compared to eastern NM. Monday to Thursday has a moderate chance of keeping the abnormally high moisture across NM leading to continued rain showers and thunderstorms each day. The pattern seems to favor shifting to a more traditional monsoon setup through next work week. This would see the band of high moisture shift in orientation to be from the SW corner to the NE corner of NM. Flooding remains a concern for storms within the corridor of high moisture as they would be capable of producing copious amounts of rainfall. There is some hints that dry air may try to work its way into NM from the NW starting on Thursday. If this dry air arrives it could help to mitigate the abnormally high moisture bringing a decrease in monsoonal activity. SH && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 539 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this evening will gradually taper off after midnight lingering longest over western areas. In the evening, stronger storms will be capable of producing wet microbursts with localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 kt. Storms will generally move toward the east and southeast at speeds around 10-25 kt. Drier air will filter over the area from the northwest on Friday with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms favoring south central and southwest areas. Storm motion on Saturday should generally be toward the east and southeast around 10-20 kt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Historic levels of moisture are present over NM today causing the ongoing rain showers and thunderstorms that are already producing torrential rainfall. The storm motion is generally eastward with a few storms moving either more NE or SE. While the more progressive nature of the storms will keep them from being over a spot for a long duration these storms can produce very high rainfall rates. So there is still very much a threat of flash flooding across NM including all fire areas and burn scars. Flash flooding on the fires and burn scars can create life threatening debris flows. Friday should see a brief reprieve with lesser rain and thunderstorms chances with lower levels of moisture over NM. However abnormally high moisture may still linger over the Sacramento Complex so there is still a flooding threat for those fires. The weekend another batch of abnormally high moisture surges back across NM leading to further rounds of vigorous rain showers and thunderstorms. Theses storms will be capable of producing copious amounts of rainfall so the threat for flash flooding will persist into next week. The silver lining to all this moisture is that the RH remains elevated with excellent overnight recoveries. Flood waters can easily sweep away people, vehicles, and roads. STAY ALIVE! DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOOD WATERS! SH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 62 91 63 93 / 50 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 48 88 48 90 / 30 5 0 10 Cuba............................ 56 85 58 87 / 40 10 0 20 Gallup.......................... 54 88 56 90 / 40 5 0 10 El Morro........................ 56 83 58 84 / 40 10 0 30 Grants.......................... 56 88 56 89 / 30 10 0 40 Quemado......................... 58 85 59 85 / 40 20 5 50 Magdalena....................... 64 88 67 89 / 60 20 5 50 Datil........................... 59 84 62 84 / 40 20 5 60 Reserve......................... 56 90 57 91 / 30 20 10 50 Glenwood........................ 69 97 70 97 / 30 20 10 40 Chama........................... 48 81 49 83 / 40 10 0 30 Los Alamos...................... 61 85 65 85 / 50 10 0 50 Pecos........................... 59 86 61 84 / 70 5 0 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 46 83 49 82 / 50 10 0 60 Red River....................... 48 75 48 72 / 60 10 5 60 Angel Fire...................... 46 80 44 77 / 40 5 0 60 Taos............................ 54 88 54 87 / 50 5 0 40 Mora............................ 54 85 54 80 / 30 5 0 60 Espanola........................ 61 93 61 93 / 50 5 0 30 Santa Fe........................ 61 86 64 86 / 80 5 0 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 89 62 90 / 70 5 0 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 92 71 93 / 50 10 0 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 93 69 95 / 50 5 0 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 96 69 97 / 50 5 0 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 94 70 96 / 50 5 0 30 Belen........................... 65 96 67 98 / 60 5 0 30 Bernalillo...................... 66 95 69 96 / 50 5 0 30 Bosque Farms.................... 64 96 66 97 / 50 5 0 30 Corrales........................ 67 96 69 97 / 50 5 0 30 Los Lunas....................... 65 96 67 97 / 50 5 0 30 Placitas........................ 65 90 69 91 / 50 5 0 30 Rio Rancho...................... 67 94 69 96 / 50 5 0 20 Socorro......................... 69 98 72 99 / 50 10 5 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 86 66 86 / 50 5 0 40 Tijeras......................... 63 88 66 89 / 50 5 0 40 Edgewood........................ 60 89 62 89 / 40 5 0 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 59 90 59 90 / 50 5 0 40 Clines Corners.................. 59 86 60 83 / 50 0 0 40 Mountainair..................... 61 88 63 88 / 40 5 5 40 Gran Quivira.................... 61 90 63 90 / 40 10 5 50 Carrizozo....................... 68 93 71 94 / 50 20 10 40 Ruidoso......................... 62 85 64 84 / 40 40 10 60 Capulin......................... 59 88 57 78 / 40 20 10 60 Raton........................... 57 92 59 84 / 30 10 0 60 Springer........................ 60 94 60 87 / 30 10 0 60 Las Vegas....................... 59 88 59 81 / 30 5 0 60 Clayton......................... 67 96 66 83 / 30 10 10 30 Roy............................. 64 93 63 84 / 20 10 0 50 Conchas......................... 69 99 69 93 / 40 5 0 30 Santa Rosa...................... 66 95 67 90 / 40 5 0 30 Tucumcari....................... 71 101 69 93 / 20 0 0 20 Clovis.......................... 71 99 70 94 / 20 5 10 30 Portales........................ 72 100 71 94 / 20 5 5 20 Fort Sumner..................... 71 98 70 94 / 30 5 5 20 Roswell......................... 76 103 76 101 / 20 10 10 20 Picacho......................... 67 95 69 93 / 30 40 10 50 Elk............................. 64 92 66 91 / 40 50 10 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ201-202-204>207- 211>224-226-229-233-239. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...44