Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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929 FXUS65 KABQ 110854 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 254 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 250 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A warming and drying trend takes hold today, with temperatures climbing to their peak on Thursday. Several zones may reach near and above 100 degrees, especially across the lower elevations. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will favor the northern and central mountains and their adjacent highlands this afternoon. After drier conditions Wednesday and Thursday, storms will return Friday and Saturday along with cooler temperatures. Drier conditions will prevail early next week along with rebounding temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 250 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 The upper low that has brought the recent bout of wet weather to the state has shifted over western north Texas this morning and the remaining showers over NM have come to an end. There remains concern this morning that patchy fog will develop across areas that have received recent precip and where mid and high clouds clear. The best chances for this remains across east central NM and fog has been noted at times around Clovis early this AM. Should additional fog and/or low clouds develop, it should burn off by mid to late morning. An upper level ridge will strengthen today over western NM which will allow temperatures to quickly rebound over yesterday`s readings. Most areas will be 10 to 20 degrees warmer than yesterday. Meanwhile, enough moisture will remain in place along and east of the Central Mountain Chain for another round of showers and thunderstorms. Storms will not be as widespread as the last few days, owing to 1) moisture generally waning during the day due to mixing and 2) lack of widespread lift. Nonetheless, a round of showers and thunderstorms will develop across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains before shifting east or southeast. There is some modest instability progged this afternoon across northeast NM, but bulk shear values of 20kt or less will make storms generally the unorganized multi-cell type. Can`t rule out a brief strong or severe storm, but confidence is low for much more than that. Isolated storms may develop further south along the Central Mountain Chain but won`t make it too far east. All storms should diminish near or shortly after sunset. The H5 ridge will continue to strengthen to 595-596dam Wednesday. Therefore, temperatures will correspondingly rise, with a few locales topping out above the century mark. Storm chances will lessen. A few storms will be possible mainly over and near the Sangre de Cristo and South Central Mountains. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 250 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 High pressure aloft continues reaching up from MX Thursday, strengthening to 596 dam by the afternoon. This will allow high temperatures to soar, with all locales seeing an increase of a few to several degrees compared to Wednesday`s readings. This will put several low elevations zones above 100F, with a few reaching beyond Heat Advisory criteria. Thankfully the high pressure will have little time to exercise its stubbornness over northern and central NM as an upper low begins tracking into the Desert Southwest. The low will push inland from the Pacific Thursday night, allowing the ridge to break down over the course of Friday. Passing over the Baja, the disturbance picks up a slug of moisture en route and meets low level return flow from the Gulf as it enters NM. This will bring the potential of showers and thunderstorms Friday through Saturday. Should the predicted moisture pan out, an enhanced risk of burn scar flash flooding could result to close out the week. Markedly cooler temperatures will prevail Friday, with most locales seeing 5F to 10F of cooling compared to Thursday`s readings. The system whisks northeastward Saturday, the pace of which is still up for debate amongst models. The GFS tracks the disturbance much quicker, jetting it out of the Desert Southwest by breakfast Saturday morning. The ECMWF is a touch slower, allowing the system to at least stay in the eastern plains for lunch. Quasi-zonal flow will follow in the system`s departure, allowing for considerable drying Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures Sunday will climb a few to several degrees, bringing several locales back near 100F. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Remaining showers are dwindling across portions of central NM. Main concern tonight will be areas of patchy fog, which will be most likely in areas that received precipitation and where mid and high clouds clear out. KTCC will have the greatest chance of any TAF site with low confidence elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop once again over the Sangre de Cristo Mtns, and to a lesser extent further south along the Central Mtn Chain, on Tuesday afternoon before shifting eastward. These storms may impact KLVS during the early to mid afternoon hours. A few storms may become strong or severe across northeast NM with hail and damaging wind gusts the main concerns. Storms will diminish around or shortly after sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 250 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Showers and thunderstorms have ended as the upper low has shifted eastward out of the state. Upper level ridging will develop across western NM today, but enough moisture will remain in place for another round of showers and thunderstorms along and east of the Central Mountain Chain this afternoon. Wetting storms will favor areas along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. The ridge will continue to build on Wednesday with afternoon temperatures soaring back above normal areawide. Fewer storms are expected as well. This trend will continue on Thursday, with Thursday likely being the hottest and driest day of the week with widespread Haines values of 6. Fortunately, with the upper ridge overhead, little wind is expected. The upper low that has been/will continue to hang out west of the Baja this week will finally eject out and cross the Four Corners and northern NM on Friday. This will bring an increase in humidity and wetting rain chances for most areas, though stronger winds may return to the West Central Basin and Range with little increase in humidity values. Critical to near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible in this area Friday afternoon. Drier and breezier conditions will return this weekend into early next week areawide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 94 57 99 57 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 87 45 91 45 / 20 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 86 52 92 54 / 10 10 0 0 Gallup.......................... 91 48 95 50 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 85 52 90 55 / 5 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 89 49 95 52 / 10 10 0 0 Quemado......................... 87 53 91 56 / 5 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 87 60 93 64 / 10 10 5 5 Datil........................... 86 57 91 60 / 10 10 5 0 Reserve......................... 92 48 96 51 / 5 5 0 0 Glenwood........................ 95 61 99 67 / 5 0 0 0 Chama........................... 80 46 85 47 / 40 10 10 0 Los Alamos...................... 80 60 87 63 / 50 10 5 0 Pecos........................... 81 54 90 58 / 50 20 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 77 47 83 48 / 60 20 10 0 Red River....................... 69 44 75 46 / 60 20 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 74 38 80 38 / 60 20 10 0 Taos............................ 82 48 89 50 / 40 20 5 0 Mora............................ 77 48 85 50 / 70 20 20 0 Espanola........................ 89 56 95 58 / 40 10 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 83 59 90 62 / 40 20 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 87 56 93 60 / 30 10 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 89 64 95 67 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 91 65 97 66 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 93 62 99 64 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 92 63 98 65 / 10 10 0 0 Belen........................... 94 59 100 61 / 10 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 92 61 98 64 / 10 10 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 93 58 99 61 / 10 10 0 0 Corrales........................ 92 60 98 63 / 10 10 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 93 59 100 61 / 10 10 0 0 Placitas........................ 88 62 94 65 / 10 10 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 91 63 97 65 / 10 10 0 0 Socorro......................... 96 64 102 67 / 5 10 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 83 58 89 61 / 20 20 0 0 Tijeras......................... 85 59 92 62 / 10 20 0 0 Edgewood........................ 85 54 91 58 / 20 20 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 49 93 52 / 20 20 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 80 53 88 57 / 30 20 0 0 Mountainair..................... 86 55 92 60 / 20 20 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 87 54 93 60 / 20 20 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 91 63 96 67 / 10 20 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 84 56 89 61 / 20 20 20 0 Capulin......................... 80 53 86 57 / 60 30 10 0 Raton........................... 83 52 90 55 / 60 30 10 0 Springer........................ 85 52 92 54 / 60 30 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 79 51 88 55 / 60 20 10 0 Clayton......................... 84 60 93 61 / 10 20 5 0 Roy............................. 82 56 89 59 / 50 40 5 5 Conchas......................... 87 61 95 63 / 30 20 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 84 60 92 61 / 20 10 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 85 60 95 63 / 5 10 0 5 Clovis.......................... 85 62 93 65 / 5 5 0 5 Portales........................ 86 61 94 64 / 5 5 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 89 63 95 65 / 5 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 96 67 100 71 / 0 5 5 0 Picacho......................... 90 60 94 63 / 20 10 20 0 Elk............................. 89 57 92 61 / 20 10 20 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...34