391
FXUS65 KABQ 232353 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
553 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening will gradually
dissipate after sunset. A few showers or thunderstorms could
linger overnight in the northeast plains, Santa Fe area and
possibly for the east mountain area of Albuquerque. This work
week will start out with more afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms for the northwest half of the state Monday. Dry air
above mountain top level is forecast to give the Ruidoso area a
break from heavy rainfall on Monday. Unfortunately, the break
will be short lived as thunderstorm chances return Tuesday and
continue each afternoon through this week. In fact, daily rounds
of showers and thunderstorms are forecast areawide through the
week with locally heavy rainfall likely on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 134 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Bermuda high center over NM this afternoon will shift slightly
southeastward overnight. As it does so, it`s forecast to entrain
single digit RH air at 500 mb from West TX, shutting down the
potential for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon for the
southeast half to third of the state including the Ruidoso area.
It`s unfortunately a quick break between convection with mid
level moisture wrapping back around the high and back into southeast
NM and the Ruidoso area Tuesday. While this is technically not
the monsoon high, this set up acts a lot like it. Over the
northwest half or so of the state, mainly scattered thunderstorm
activity is forecast Monday afternoon. Storm motion on Monday
afternoon will be to the east between 10-15 mph. Monday`s set up
will take afternoon thunderstorms off the peaks of the Sangre de
Cristos and over the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon (HPCC) burn scar
during the early afternoon. Latest high resolution models are not
as bullish with the heavy rain potential for the Grants/Milan area
Monday afternoon. 18Z NAM12, however, continues to suggest storms
will drift to the southeast off Mt. Taylor during the late
afternoon. This could result in additional heavy rain for one area
still reeling from heavy rain and flash flooding this past
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 134 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A very active long term forecast period is expected during the
upcoming work week. Starting Tuesday, a kidney bean shaped (NAM12)
Bermuda high is forecast to be centered over NM. NAM12 progs a
fairly strong centroid within the high center over south- central
NM Tuesday afternoon. The storm steering flow that results on
Tuesday afternoon is westerly around 10 mph for much of the
forecast area. The one exception appears to be over the HPCC burn
scare where steering flow is forecast to be light and variable.
Storms over the Sangre de Cristo mountains, as a result, are forecast
to be mainly stationary Tuesday afternoon, and could result in a
greater risk for flash flooding for the mountain range as a whole,
but especially for the HPCC burn scar.

Then things get even more active Wednesday and Thursday. Bermuda
high center is progged to shift to over southeast AZ. As it does
so, the flow over NM becomes northwesterly. Northwest flow aloft
with moisture in place is notorious for strong to severe storms
in northeast NM, including the HPCC burn scar. Additionally, the
NAM12 and GFS hit the Sacramento Mountains and the Ruidoso area
particularly hard with heavy rain from slow moving storms on
Wednesday afternoon as well.

As if all of this isn`t bad enough, another unseasonably
deep/cold closed low remains on tap to move into the PACNW
Thursday. A portion of the stronger than average subtropical jet
stream hits the Bermuda high and gets forced northeastward over AZ
and northwest NM Thursday. PWAT values from the NAM12 Wednesday
night approach and may exceed all time records for ABQ (1.6"). And
with a 50 kt jet level speed max moving in according to the 12Z
ECMWF, a round of scattered to numerous strong to potentialy
severe thunderstorms are forecast for the northwest third or so
of the state Thursday afternoon and evening. Global models agree
that convection will finally trend down on Friday. Enough
residual moisture may remain over the Gila and Sacramento
mountains, however, for weak showers or a possible thunderstorm
Friday afternoon. Dry weather is expected elsewhere Friday. For
next weekend, the Bermuda high center is progged to shift east
over West TX, possibly setting the stage for more strong to severe
storms for northeast NM and possibly the east mountain area of
ABQ.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Any isolated to scattered shower and storm activity across the
higher terrain should gradually dissipate after sunset. Activity
could linger longest across the southwest and west central
mountains before midnight with lingering mid level clouds for most
areas outside of east central and southeast NM. Another round of
slow moving showers and storms expected to develop across the
higher terrain midday Monday with the southwest and west central
mountains being the most favored locations. KGUP probably will be
the most likely site to be impacted mid afternoon to early
evening. KSAF and KLVS could be impacted from nearby storms late
in the TAF period, but chances are less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

With dewpoint temperatures expected to remain well above average
for this time of year through this upcoming week and the Bermuda
high overhead, a monsoon like pattern will persist for at least
another week to 10 days. Flash flooding threat from strong
afternoon and evening thunderstorms remains high through the week
with Wednesday and Thursday looking like the days with the highest
threat level. A brief downtick in activity remains on track for
Friday, but more strong to severe storms are forecast to move back
in next weekend. High temperatures will trend up above average
Tuesday, trending back down to below average Wednesday and
Thursday. A warm up Friday will be countered with a cool down for
the northeast third Saturday and for much of the forecast area
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  64  91  64  95 /  10  10   5   5
Dulce...........................  48  89  48  92 /  20  20   0  10
Cuba............................  57  86  58  89 /  10  30  10  20
Gallup..........................  54  89  55  92 /  20  50  10  20
El Morro........................  57  85  58  86 /  30  60  20  40
Grants..........................  56  89  56  91 /  30  60  20  40
Quemado.........................  58  86  59  87 /  30  70  30  60
Magdalena.......................  64  87  65  89 /  40  60  20  50
Datil...........................  61  84  61  85 /  40  70  20  70
Reserve.........................  54  91  55  93 /  30  70  30  70
Glenwood........................  66  96  67  98 /  30  70  20  70
Chama...........................  49  83  50  86 /  20  30   0  20
Los Alamos......................  64  84  65  88 /  10  40   5  30
Pecos...........................  59  86  63  88 /  20  30  10  30
Cerro/Questa....................  49  83  50  86 /  10  30   5  30
Red River.......................  49  77  50  79 /  10  30   5  30
Angel Fire......................  45  79  46  82 /  10  30   0  20
Taos............................  55  86  55  91 /  10  20   0  20
Mora............................  53  85  55  87 /  20  40   0  30
Espanola........................  61  92  62  96 /  10  30   5  20
Santa Fe........................  64  87  65  89 /  20  30  10  20
Santa Fe Airport................  61  90  63  93 /  10  30   5  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  94  69  95 /  20  30  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  69  95  70  96 /  10  20  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  97  67  98 /  10  20  10  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  96  68  97 /  10  20  10  10
Belen...........................  66  97  67  99 /  20  30  10  20
Bernalillo......................  68  96  69  98 /  10  20  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  65  96  66  98 /  20  30  10  20
Corrales........................  68  97  69  98 /  10  20  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  67  96  68  99 /  20  30  10  20
Placitas........................  67  91  68  93 /  10  20  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  69  95  70  97 /  10  20  10  10
Socorro.........................  70  98  72 101 /  40  40  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  64  86  65  89 /  20  30  10  20
Tijeras.........................  62  89  63  92 /  20  30  10  20
Edgewood........................  59  90  60  92 /  20  20  10  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  58  91  59  93 /  20  30  10  20
Clines Corners..................  59  86  60  88 /  20  30  10  20
Mountainair.....................  61  89  61  92 /  30  30  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  61  89  64  92 /  30  30  20  30
Carrizozo.......................  67  94  70  97 /  20  20  10  30
Ruidoso.........................  60  85  63  88 /  10  30  10  50
Capulin.........................  58  88  59  89 /  20  20   0  10
Raton...........................  56  91  59  93 /  10  20   0  10
Springer........................  58  91  60  94 /  20  30   0  20
Las Vegas.......................  57  86  60  88 /  30  30   5  20
Clayton.........................  67  95  67  97 /  20  20   0   5
Roy.............................  63  91  63  93 /  30  30   0  10
Conchas.........................  68  98  68  99 /  20  20   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  65  94  67  96 /  20  20   5  10
Tucumcari.......................  69  98  71 100 /  20  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  67  96  70  99 /  10   5   0   5
Portales........................  67  96  71 100 /   5   5   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  69  96  71 100 /  20  10   5   5
Roswell.........................  71 101  75 105 /   5   5   0  10
Picacho.........................  65  94  68  97 /  10  20   5  40
Elk.............................  60  93  63  95 /   5  20  10  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...71