153
FXUS63 KABR 191128 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
628 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 60 to 90 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms
  Thursday night through Saturday. Some storms may be strong to
  severe Friday afternoon and evening.

- Sunday and Monday will be dry and warm.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Rather quiet conditions expected across the region today as we get a
brief break in the active weather pattern. Surface high pressure
will be moving eastward across the Dakotas today, bringing mostly
dry conditions and light winds. This high moves east of the area
tonight into Thursday as southwest flow aloft persists. Rain chances
look to increase during this time as disturbances within the upper
flow move overhead, combined with slowly increasing moisture from
the south once again. Although, instability will be lacking into
Thursday with best CAPE values held in check to our south in
Nebraska, closer to the surface front.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The extended period starts off with the region between an upper
level ridge over the southeastern part of the country and a trough
over the west coast. Southwesterly flow will be the rule over the
CWA until some energy and a weak shortwave trough eject over the
region Friday and Saturday. Will see ridging build over the Northern
Plains Sunday and Monday before a more zonal pattern develops late
in the period.

At the surface, the CWA will be between high pressure over the Great
Lakes and low pressure over Colorado Thursday evening. Precipitation
will likely be ongoing when the period starts, and will see fairly
high chances (60 to 90 percent) continue Friday and Saturday along a
warm front associated with the Colorado low. May see a few strong to
severe storms on Friday, which is currently highlighted by a
Marginal Risk from the Storm Prediction Center. Large hail and
strong wind gusts will be possible with any thunderstorms that
develop in the late afternoon and evening. Current indications are
that the eastern part of the CWA will see the most rainfall, with
some areas east of the James River Valley possibly seeing amounts in
excess of two inches between Thursday night and Saturday morning.
High pressure will move in and bring a respite in the rain Saturday
night through the day Monday. A frontal boundary will track across
the area Tuesday, and will bring a chance (20 to 40 percent) for
showers and thunderstorms.

High temperatures will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s Friday, in the
mid 70s to mid 80s Saturday and Sunday, in the mid 80s to mid 90s
Monday, and in the mid 80s to lower 90s Tuesday. Overnight lows will
be mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

An area of MVFR cigs will linger over south central South Dakota
this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the
area today and tonight. Rain showers may move over southern parts
of the area late in the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin