636
FXAK68 PAFC 150041
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 PM AKDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Thursday)...

A fairly complex split in the upper level flow is in place over
Alaska and the Peninsula. A weak short-wave trough is embedded in
the flow up the west side of the ridge, tracking northeastward
across Southcentral this afternoon. This has brought widespread
cloudy skies and areas of light rain showers, mainly along the
south to west side of mountain ranges in weak upslope flow. A
somewhat stronger short-wave is pushing onshore of western Alaska,
with a deep low and building short-wave ridge upstream over the
western Bering Sea. In the southern stream, a deep cut-off low
over the north-central Pacific (south of the eastern Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula) is couched between two ridges. A jet streak
along the eastern side of the low is helping force it northward.
As it continues northward through Tuesday, the ridge over the
northeast Pacific will connect with the ridge ahead of the western
Bering low and move across southern Alaska. As a result, expect
decreasing clouds and warmer/drier conditions for Southcentral on
Tuesday.

The track of the low becomes a little more questionable on
Wednesday as the ridge settles over Interior Alaska and blocks the
low from progressing northward. Model spread is fairly large with
the track of the low, as it is forced westward from the Gulf and
across Southwest Alaska Wednesday through Thursday. There is
confidence in a frontal boundary crossing Kodiak Island Tuesday
night and pushing northward across the Kenai Peninsula Wednesday,
bringing rain and some wind. However, guidance varies on the
progression of the front inland and track of trailing upper level
short-waves Wednesday night through Thursday. Based on this,
expect mostly cloudy skies with a chance of rain region-wide.
It`s much more difficult to say where and when the chances of
rain will be highest. Nonetheless, none of the features look
particularly strong, so any rainfall will be light.

As for winds, small craft advisory level winds will develop over
the western Gulf ahead of the surface low and front Tuesday night
through Wednesday. The building surface ridge ahead of it will
lead to southeasterly gap winds into Southcentral Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Uncertainty in the strength and progression of
the front lead to low confidence in the strength of gap winds.

-SEB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

A low pressure system in the Western Bering Sea continues to push
a trough and front into the Central Bering and across the Central
Aleutians early this week. Gusty southerly winds along the
frontal boundary along with light-to-moderate rainfall across the
Aleutian Chain, reaching Unalaska by Wednesday afternoon.
Southwest Alaska is currently under a col, with little influence
from systems over other areas of Alaska. Cloudy skies will help
keep interior Southwest cool, mitigating convective potential for
the area. Expect increasing shower chances to expand northward
over the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday night, with widespread shower
chances to unfold across Southwest Alaska through Wednesday
evening. This will help drive the cooling trend for Southwest
through the middle of the week.

By Wednesday, the low pressure system will have shifted to the
northern Bering and will continue to spin about, holding position
in the northwestern Bering. A new low pressure system in the
northern Pacific aims to fill in behind the exiting trough. By
Thursday morning, the approaching low may merge with the
established low in the northwest Bering, reinvigorating the
pattern, bringing up winds and rain to the eastern Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula by Thursday afternoon. The progression of this
secondary low is suffering from a large amount of model
disagreement, making the progression of the pattern relatively
muddled. Stay tuned as we continue to monitor the details on the
progression of the pattern, however expect a continued generally
unsettled, rainy and windy pattern across the Bering and
Aleutians.

The merged low re-upping the southerly winds is also expected to
bring a shortwave over Southwest Alaska by Wednesday morning.
Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula to see a round of rain
beginning Wednesday morning, poised to continue into late this
week as the trough approaches the coast, supporting the rainy
pattern.

-CL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The big picture has a broad upper level low in the Bering Sea and
a building ridge of high pressure extending from the North
Pacific and across Southcentral Alaska through the forecast
period. For Southcentral, the building, blocking ridge of high
pressure will promote drier conditions across much of the region.

In the West, the upper level low pressure system generally
remains over the central Bering Sea during the longterm. The main
uncertainty with the Bering low is in regards to how it interacts
with surrounding shortwaves/lows and the speed of its surface
front. The GFS/Canadian solutions would push the surface features
quickly across SW AK whereas the European model now tends to have
the features move slower across the region. Nonetheless, expect an
active pattern out west for the forecast period.

-DD

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will generally prevail for ANC. A shortwave
trough lifting north across Southcentral AK will continue to
bring light rain to the area through the remainder of the evening
before diminishing overnight. The Turnagain Arm is also expected
to pick up later this afternoon with up-inlet flow, which could
bring southerly to southwesterly wind gusts up to 20 kts before
abating overnight.


&&


$$