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FXAK67 PAJK 272311 CCA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
311 PM AKDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SHORT TERM...An upper level and surface ridge of high pressure
sits over the gulf, creating a marine layer of clouds that are
hanging around some coastal areas of POW and Baranof Island. At
the mid-levels, high pressure is in the Yukon and there is a low
developing over the SW gulf. This pattern generally leads to an
easterly flow aloft, while the surface ridge causes NWLY winds,
and the marine layer vs. sunshine causes enhanced sea breezes. All
this to say that wind directions can be a bit tricky on an
otherwise quiet weather day.

The ridge over the gulf will be under-cut by the SW gulf low
pressure system tonight into Friday. This will cut off the surface
high pressure and push it to the northern gulf, while the low will
slowly progress east toward Haida Gwaii. This change in position
will affect where the marine layer pushes back inland tonight. The
Yakutat area would have more potential for marine layer clouds
and most models are showing it pushing a little further into other
ocean entrances than it did last night. Have not expanded the
mention of fog in the forecast as clouds have been off the surface,
but wouldn`t rule it out.

As the low approaches, it will send bands of showers and clouds into
the southern panhandle. One band of vorticity that models have at
500mb looks to track northward across the the panhandle Friday
afternoon and into Saturday morning. Additionally, models are
showing afternoon showers developing over Canada and along the
Coast Mountains, but not looking as if many will affect the
panhandle. Greatest chances of showers coming in from Canada look
to be over the south between Hyder and Wrangell while the southern
outer coast of POW has the greatest chances with the frontal
bands. Generally increased POP with the frontal band Friday night,
but lowered POP across the north/central inner channels.

Temperatures look to stay fairly similar or a couple degrees cooler
on Friday.

.LONG TERM...Ridging becomes less dominant over the eastern GULFAK
and SEAK over the weekend as a weak low pressure system settled into
the eastern GULFAK and a weak front moves in from the southwest. For
this midrange forecast package we increased the chances for showers
starting Friday night in the far south and gradually worked higher
chances northward through Saturday and into the weekend. Rainfall
amounts look fairly typical through the weekend so we are not
expecting significant impacts from heavy rainfall. We do see
temperatures moderating a bit with increased cloud cover and
cooler temperatures aloft working in from the southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally VFR most locations through the early evening
however we do expect to see more marine layer low clouds and fog
tonight for Ketchikan, Klawock, Sitka, and Yakutat (generally 10Z-
17Z). Winds remain relatively light except in Skagway due to
afternoon seabreeze enhancement this afternoon and again tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Chilkat River remains above minor flood stage due to
higher elevation snow melt. Temperatures are expected to remain
warm, therefore the Chilkat River is expected to remain above
minor flood stage.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ferrin
LONG TERM....Garmon
AVIATION...Garmon
HYDROLOGY...Ferrin

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