537
FXAK67 PAJK 261307
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
507 AM AKDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SHORT TERM...Remains of the moisture band is will try to spread
drizzle and light rain to the north central panhandle. Mostly
cloudy skies also will cover much of the southern panhandle.
Expect some of the clouds to break up leaving some breaks in the
clouds so high temperatures could be up and down across the
panhandle. Highs should be into the mid-upper 60s to lower 70s.

Partial clearing is possible as the weakened circulation, near
the central coast falling apart and then falling apart and the
northwest flow near the outer coast. With the breaks overnight,
potential fog over the panhandle headed into Thursday morning.


.LONG TERM...The start of the long term period Wednesday will
feature a slight chance of an easterly wave mentioned at the tail
end of the short range discussion. Once that is resolved, skies
should begin to clear in earnest as high pressure builds over the
Gulf. This will lead to continued light winds of 10 kt or less for
a majority of the inside waters, with the exception being
afternoon/evening sea breeze circulations such as northern Lynn
Canal near Taku Inlet. As the ridge builds, there will be a slight
tightening of the pressure gradient in the SE Gulf with winds out
of the NW for coastal waters reaching around 20 kt. This is
expected to be relatively short lived and peak late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning.

Overall the big picture is relatively unchanged for the remainder
of the week with daytime maximum temperatures reaching the mid
60s and low to mid 70s in some areas. 850 mb temperatures still
remain on track to be 8 to 10 degrees Celsius by the end of the
week, and subsequently snow levels will be steadily rising to
between 9,000 and 10,000 feet over a majority of the panhandle.
Once again, being on the downstream side of the ridge, a marine
layer is still possible to bring on and off cloudy conditions to
the outer coastal communities which could limit daytime warming.

Model guidance continues to wrestle with the idea of a system
moving into the far southern gulf at the beginning of the weekend
to break up the otherwise benign pattern. While timing and track
remain somewhat scattered, the general consensus is that this
system will not be particularly strong. Winds in the southern and
central gulf will shift to be more easterly and increase in
response to this advancing system, but are expected to remain
below 25 kt. Overall lower forecaster confidence for timing of
precipitation to return to the southern panhandle, with a nebulous
timeframe of sometime this weekend. Stay tuned for the latest
forecast updates as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...Remnants of an upper level low will diminish today,
clearing skies and keeping prevailing VFR conditions. Easterly
flow from Juneau northward will continue to cause rain chances and
brief periods of MVFR VIS from passing showers during the morning
hours. Beyond the morning hours, clearing skies will cause an
increase of winds near the northern portion of Taiya Inlet and the
outer coastline. During the overnight hours, a marine layer is
expected to move over the eastern gulf and outer coastal areas. At
this time, expecting conditions to stay MVFR due to CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...Light winds through the inner channels Wednesday will
generally persist although anticipate that Lynn Canal will see an
increase of south winds through the afternoon to near 20 kt. Outer
coastal waters will continue with west to northwest winds of 10
to 15 kt for coastal waters increasing to 20 kt off west of Prince
of Wales Island Wednesday night.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...Chilkat River remains above minor flood stage today
due to higher elevation snow melt. Temperatures are expected to
remain high over the next several days and are even expected to
increase as cloud cover diminishes. Flower Mountain Snotel site
shows around 9.7 inches of SWE still in the snowpack at 2500 feet
elevation so there is still a decent amount of snow to melt at
higher elevations of the Chilkat basin. As such the Chilkat River
it expected to remain above minor flood stage for the next few
days at least and the advisory may need to be extended if high
water persists.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....EAL
AVIATION...NC
MARINE...Bezenek
HYDROLOGY...Bezenek

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