419
FXUS61 KALY 010552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
152 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching warm front will bring some showers and
thunderstorms overnight. Tuesday will be warm and humid, with
scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing
ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and thunderstorms
will taper off Tuesday evening, with warm but less humid
conditions in the wake of the front for Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1030 PM EDT, adjusted POPs to match current radar trends
as showers and storms begin moving into the western ADKs and
Mohawk Valley. Some storm cores have produced wind gusts around
35-40 MPH, as noted recently at Westmoreland (NYS mesonet) with
a gust of 37 MPH. This will continue into the night as a warm
front and enhanced low-level convergence with the nose of a LLJ
move across the region, with coverage of showers expected to
gradually shift eastward. In addition, PWAT`s will climb to
1.75"-2" after midnight, so locally heavy downpours will be
possible. Becoming warm and humid overnight with lows in the mid
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Showers and thunderstorms Tuesday associated with a cold
  frontal passage. A few severe storms may occur during the
  afternoon to early evening Tuesday.

Discussion:

Warm front should be lifting north/east of the region Tuesday
morning, with scattered showers/thunderstorms remaining
possible, especially areas north of I-90. A break in the
convection is expected mid morning through early Tuesday
afternoon, before additional showers/thunderstorms develop
and/or translate into the region from the west during the
afternoon. Latest CAMs suggest best chance for
showers/thunderstorms will be later Tuesday afternoon into the
evening hours, especially from about Albany south and east. MU
CAPES reach 1000-2000 J/kg in these areas, with 25-30 KT 0-6 km
shear. This area will also become coincident with the right
entrance region of strong upper level jet translating into
Ontario/SW Quebec. Some storm organization will be possible
mainly south/east of Albany, with isolated strong/damaging wind
gusts possible, especially within any clusters/bowing segments
that develop. Heavy rain will also be a threat given high
PWAT`s and some potential for backbuilding/training of cells.
SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms
across much of the region for Tuesday, along with a Marginal
Risk for excessive rainfall (isolated flash flooding).

High temps Tuesday should reach the lower/mid 80s except perhaps
upper 80s across portions of the mid Hudson Valley. Dewpoints
will climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s Tuesday morning and
remain through the afternoon, with perhaps some higher dewpoints
across portions of the mid Hudson Valley. This will lead to
maximum heat indices in the lower/mid 90s within the Hudson
River Valley and NW CT. At this time, no heat advisories are
being issues given borderline heat indices, and brief duration
in the lower/mid 90s.

Showers/thunderstorms linger until around midnight across the SE
Catskills, mid Hudson Valley/NW CT before tapering off, with
clearing after midnight. Patchy fog may develop, especially in
areas which receive prior rainfall. Lows mainly in the 50s/60s.

Fair and warm for Wednesday with less humid conditions, with
highs in the 70s/lower 80s. Approaching upper level disturbance
could bring some showers/thunderstorms to the SW Adirondacks
toward daybreak Thursday, otherwise partly cloudy with lows in
the 50s/lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Showers and thunderstorms Thursday, some locally strong/severe
  especially near and north of I-90.

Strong shortwave translates across SE Canada and northeast
Thursday. Strong mid level winds (H500 35-45 KT), falling
heights aloft/cooling mid levels looks to promote at least
scattered thunderstorms across the region ahead of reinforcing
cold front. Given fairly strong dynamics along with approaching
left exit region of cyclonically curved jet max along with steep
mid level lapse rates (H7-H5 6.5-7.5 C/km) suggest at least some
stronger thunderstorms will be possible, perhaps severe with
wind and hail the main threats.

In the wake of this disturbance, generally fair but cooler
conditions Friday, then warming to near or above normal levels
by Sunday. Some showers/thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
depending on possible ridge-rolling disturbances rounding the
developing upper level ridge. Highs mainly in the 70s Friday,
warming to upper 80s/lower 90s by Sunday. Lows mainly in the
50s/60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thru 06z Wednesday...VFR conditions will lower to MVFR with
scattered showers and few thunderstorms along a warm front this
morning. Expect the showers to impact the TAF sites between
08Z-14Z/TUE with cigs lowering to 1.5-3.0 kft AGL. The showers
and isolated thunderstorms will taper off, as the cigs will rise
back to VFR levels between 16Z-20Z/TUE. Another round of showers
and thunderstorms will impact the TAF sites in the late
afternoon into the early evening with PROB30 groups used. The
PROB30 groups for thunderstorms were placed in the 19Z-23Z time
frame for KALB, 21Z-01Z/WED for KPSF, and 22Z to 02Z/WED for
POU. MVFR conditions and spotty IFR levels will occur with any
thunderstorms. Expect cigs/vsbys to return to VFR levels in the
wake of the prefrontal trough passage. Mid level cloudiness will
prevalent.

The winds will be light from the south/southeast at less than 10
KT this morning. They will increase from the west to southwest
at 8-12 KT in the late morning into the afternoon with a few
gusts around 20 KT at KALB/KPSF. Strong gusts may occur with any
thunderstorms. The winds will be light from west at less than
7 KT tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV/Rathbun
NEAR TERM...KL/Speck
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Wasula