Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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150 FXUS61 KALY 251759 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 159 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A couple of much needed wet days will give way to dry conditions for the end of the workweek and weekend with seasonable temperatures. The next stretch of dry weather will be much shorter than this last spell with shower chances increasing again Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... .UPDATE...As of 145 PM EDT...Scattered showers are tracking through portions of the Southwest Adirondacks and Upper-Hudson Valley this afternoon ahead of the next widespread batch of rain that remains upstream to our southwest. Low pressure has drifted into southeast Ontario with its attendant warm front extending south into the Ohio Valley, still west of the western New York State border. Cloud coverage remains extensive across the region with increased moisture encroaching from the west. Temperatures have increased only modestly as a result with mid to upper 50s across much of the area and pockets of low 60s in the valleys. Minor adjustments were made with this update to maintain consistency with latest obs and trends, but aside from these, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below for details. Previous Discussion Early morning radar imagery showing scattered shwrs across the westerly Mohawk Vly and southern Adirondacks, with additional returns beginning to develop over the western Catskills. Activity will continue sliding to the northeast this morning for a few hours before gradually decreasing in coverage towards daybreak. Following this, expect much of the fcst area to see dry conditions through mid morning through early afternoon, before the next round of shwrs begins advancing north towards our area late in the day. This second round will be more widespread in nature as strong upper support in the form of a well defined upper wave begins approaching from the northeast. As a result, have increased pops across the board tonight, and again through much of the day on Thursday as main cold front begins to slide across the area. HRRR and 3K NAM show developing convection possible across southern zones during the late morning and afternoon on Thursday, however minimal CAPE should keep thunder activity fairly sparse in coverage. After a prolonged dry spell, much beneficial rain will be had over the area, with widespread 0.75 to 1.25 inch rainfall totals expected. For now, the heaviest am amounts are expected to fall along and north of the I-90 corridor, with lesser amounts to the south. Hydro issues are not expected due to very dry antecedent conditions. With clouds and rain expected across the area today and tomorrow, temperatures will be on the cooler side with low to upper 60s expected today, with slightly warmer temps expected tomorrow as warm air lifts north ahead of cold front. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Rain comes to an end Thursday night with high pressure then expected to bring clearing skies and dry conditions through much of the upcoming weekend and early next week. Ridging aloft will become more pronounced as we move into the latter stages of the weekend as the remnants of now Tropical Storm Helene impact the Tennessee Vly and Southeast. This should result in near to slightly above normal temperatures this weekend into early next week with highs reaching the lower to middle 70s, with lows falling into the during the day upper 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ridging begins to break down by the beginning of next week as northern stream wave begins digging into the northern Great Lakes. Despite this, dry weather will continue through Monday before shwrs are once again possible Tuesday and Tuesday night as main cold front approaches from the west. High temps will remain at or slightly above normal with mid/upper 60s to low 70s expected during the day, and upper 40s to low 50s expected during the overnight periods. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday...VFR/MVFR conditions this afternoon with cigs in the 2-3 kft AGL range at KPSF and 3.5-5 kft AGL range at KALB/KGFL/KPOU. Another round of showers and light rain will move in the terminals sites between 20Z/WED and 00Z/THU with conditions lowering to widespread MVFR. The light rain will persist until 04Z-07Z/WED and then a surge of heavier rain will lower cigs/vsbys to low MVFR/IFR levels, as a wave of low pressure move across the region through daybreak. Conditions may stay IFR until about 16Z/THU but lingering drizzle and light rain will continue with low MVFR and spotty IFR conditions. The winds will be east to southeast at less than 10 KT this afternoon. The winds will generally be under 7 KT from the south to southeast tonight. 2 kft AGL winds will increase to 35-40 KT from the south toward 06Z/THU. Low Level wind shear was added to KGFL/KPSF/KPOU until about 16Z/THU. We may need to add KALB with later TAF issuances. The winds will be southerly at 5-10 KT in the late morning into the afternoon. Outlook... Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gant NEAR TERM...Gant/Gitro SHORT TERM...Gitro LONG TERM...Gitro AVIATION...Wasula