029
FXUS61 KALY 050801
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
401 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
With a warm and humid air mass in place and a nearby
frontal boundary around, some showers and thunderstorms are possible
for today.  There will be a continued threat for showers and
thunderstorms tonight into Saturday as a cold front moves across the
region, with hot and muggy conditions remaining in place.  Rain-free
weather will return for Sunday into Monday, although temperatures
will continue to be above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 400 AM EDT...Surface boundary remains stalled over the
region this morning. Areas south of the front are seeing a
light southerly flow, while northern areas are fairly calm. All
areas are fairly warm and muggy to start the day, with dewpoints
around 70 F. Aloft, the flow is out of the west-southwest, with
an upper level disturbance well upstream of the area over the
Midwest. The weak surface front will remain stalled over the
area through much of the day today, but may start to slowly lift
northward as a warm front towards the early evening hours.

IR satellite imagery shows fairly widespread clouds in place,
mostly mid level clouds. MRMS shows some spotty showers are
ongoing, especially for western New England. They showers should
be pushing off to the east, so most areas will be starting the
day rain-free, although it will be muggy with some patchy fog
possible and a partly to mostly cloudy sky.

While the morning will start off dry, there will be a threat for
some showers and thunderstorms by afternoon, especially for
southern areas. CAMs suggest that a cluster of showers and
thunderstorms (currently over the Upper Ohio Valley) may spread
towards southern areas by afternoon, although they differ on the
exact placement and strength of this activity. If enough breaks
of sun occurs, there could be enough instability around (about
1000 J/kg) to allow for a locally strong storm, although storms
will be fairly brief due to poor lapse rates aloft. There will
be some shear aloft as well, although it`s fairly top-heavy and
will depend on if a storm can get tall enough. Can`t totally
rule out a rogue strong wind gust today with a wet microburst
when a storm collapses, but main threat may wind up being heavy
downpours, as high PWATs/dewpoints could lead to high rainfall
rates and some localized flooding of urban or poor drainage.
This will be especially true if any location sees more than one
shower or storm.

While there will be a lot of clouds to start the day, there
should be enough breaks to allow for partly sunny skies by the
mid to late morning and into the afternoon hours. This will
allow for temps to reach well into the 80s for most valley
areas. Along with dewpoints in the 70s, this will make for heat
index values into the low 90s. Values should be just shy of
advisory criteria, but it will be close and anyone spending time
outdoors should use caution to avoid heat related illnesses.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As the stalled frontal boundary lifts northward for tonight,
some additional showers and storms will be possible. CAMs show a
variety of different solutions for tonight as well, although
western and southern areas may have the highest coverage. With
the nocturnal timing, surface inversion should help prevent the
threat for any strong winds, but heavy downpours will continue
to be a threat. Lows will remain mild and muggy near 70 with
plenty of clouds around.

On Saturday, there may be some morning convection that is
moving west to east to start the day after daybreak, but skies
should clear out enough for a partly sunny sky by the mid to
late morning hours. With another warm and very humid day
(dewpoints into the mid 70s), it will be yet another day where
heat index values may be close to advisory criteria in valley
areas. It will probably be just short, but definitely high
enough where caution should be encouraged to all spending a lot
of time outdoors.

In addition, there will be a threat for some additional shower
and t-storms in the afternoon or evening ahead of the advancing
weak surface cold front, although coverage looks fairly low,
and the highest threat may be for eastern areas (Taconics into
western New England). As with Friday, the main threat looks to
be heavy downpours, although a rogue severe storm can`t be
totally ruled out, as the upper level shortwave lifts from the
upper Great Lakes and into southern Canada, so there may be some
decent dynamics not too far from the area. The threat for
precip will be winding down on Sat night as the surface cold
front pushes eastward. Lows will fall into the 60s, although it
will still be fairly humid with a partly cloudy sky.

On Sunday, it still looks fairly warm, despite being behind the
front. Dewpoints look a tad lower than Saturday, but still
pretty sticky with values well into the 60s to near near 70. The
main difference compared to Saturday will be that no precip is
expected and skies will feature more sun, with a mostly sunny
sky. Highs should reach well into the 80s once again, with a few
spots topping out around 90. Heat index values may reach into
lower 90s again for some areas. It will be dry on Sunday night
with a mostly clear sky. This may allow for lows to fall a
little more than the last few nights (especially in the
Adirondacks), with lows ranging from the upper 50s in northern
areas to the upper 60s in the Capital Region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The extended forecast period begins Monday with dry conditions
anticipated across eastern New York and western New England courtesy
of upper-level ridging aloft accompanying high pressure at the
surface. It will, however, be another hot day with highs looking to
reach the upper 70s/mid 80s at higher elevations and upper 80s to
low 90s in large valley areas. Dewpoints will be slightly elevated,
especially in the Hudson Valley where mid to upper 60s appear
likely, which could make conditions fair on the uncomfortable side.
However, at this time, heat indices look to remain below advisory
criteria in the low 90s.

Monday night into Tuesday, the upper ridging begins to weaken as an
upper-level disturbance and associated frontal system strengthens
upstream and slides eastward. Simultaneously, the surface
anticyclone shifts south and east away from the region to allow a
surface trough to build in in its wake. Some light, scattered
showers are possible with this initial disturbance mainly for
upslope areas (Eastern Catskills and Western Adirondacks) west of
the Hudson on Tuesday morning. However, as the axis of the upper
trough digs further into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions
throughout the day and the surface trough strengthens ahead of the
primary low and attendant cold front, showers and embedded rumbles
of thunder will become more widespread. There still remains some
uncertainty regarding timing, but general consensus indicates a
greater spatial coverage by Tuesday afternoon/evening.

Showers look to continue Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
gradually becoming less widespread as the upper trough weakens and
the cold front tracks through by Wednesday afternoon. Some embedded
rumbles of thunder will remain possible Tuesday night, but with the
loss of daytime heating and models indicating limited instability,
they may be few and far between. Some additional showers and rumbles
of thunder will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning as
we remain under cyclonic flow. However, tranquil weather will return
for most Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as dry air is
ushered in behind the departing system.

High temperatures Tuesday will be similar to Monday with upper 70s
to mid 80s at higher elevations and upper 80s with pockets of near
90 elsewhere. Wednesday and Thursday will then be cooler with
mid/upper 70s to low 80s above 1000 ft and mid and pockets of upper
80s in the valleys. Low temperatures Monday night and Tuesday night
will range primarily in the 60s with pockets of near 70 in the
Hudson Valley. Wednesday night and Thursday night will see
temperatures fall to the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06z Saturday...VFR conditions prevail at all terminals
this morning with the exception of KPSF where visibility falls
within the MVFR category and the ceiling has been bouncing
between VFR and MVFR. These conditions are not anticipated to
persist, but are likely in association with some vicinity
showers that could be causing some nearby mist/light fog. The
KENX radar shows widely scattered, very light showers throughout
the area this morning but no real impacts have been noted at
any of the terminals outside of a mention of -RA at KALB which
will likely not make it to the next ob.

Throughout the 06z TAF period, mainly VFR conditions are
anticipated across the terminals until later this afternoon when
a weak boundary looks to bring some scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Based on the latest guidance, KPOU/KPSF/KALB look
to be the terminals with the greatest probability to be impacted
so PROB30 groups were included here between 18-01z. At least
MVFR conditions are likely to accompany these storms, with IFR
conditions also possible. However, confidence is not high enough
at this lead time to include IFR conditions within the TAFs.
Will make adjustments with future iterations where necessary.
Upon the conclusion of convective activity, VFR conditions
should return and prevail for the remainder of the 06z TAF
period.

Winds throughout the 06z cycle will begin calm to light and
variable before increasing to sustained speeds of 3-6 kt out of
the south to southwest.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Gant