Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
796 FXUS64 KAMA 151718 AAB AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1218 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Showers and thunderstorms continue across the Panhandles tonight as an upper-level trough moves across with favorable forcing for ascent. The primary threat will be heavy rain given PWATs around 1.2" to 1.4" and high freezing levels, but gusty winds can`t be ruled out. A relative lull in the activity may occur later tonight and into the early daytime hours, but additional lobes of vorticity may move in and help develop more showers and thunderstorms. There should be a longer lull in the showers and thunderstorms through the mid to late morning through much of the afternoon hours which should be enough time for the atmosphere to recover from the morning rain. Additional perturbations in the flow aloft are expected to cross the southern Rockies and into the Panhandles toward the mid to late afternoon hours, supporting a chance for thunderstorms to develop in the eastern half of the combined Panhandles. CAMs generally suggest MLCAPE values will be between 1250 J/kg to as high as 1750 J/kg along with 30-35 kts effective shear. The wind profile seems to be marginally supportive of a transient supercell, but multicells/bowing segments may be more prevalent. Temperatures aloft look rather warm with 500mb temperatures around -5C which should limit the hail threat. However, large hail would still be possible, especially with any transient supercell that can develop. DCAPE values will be around 1200 J/kg to 1400 J/kg, suggesting gusty to damaging winds looks to be the more unconditional threat with any thunderstorm in that afternoon to early evening hours. With all that said, will have to watch the potential for rain and clouds to linger through the morning hours which may present an issue with warming up enough to break the cap. Otherwise, additional thunderstorms that originate from the Rockies may move into the western Panhandles in the evening hours, and other thunderstorms may develop in the northern Panhandles/SW Kansas in response to a strengthening nocturnal LLJ. Convection would be elevated by this time, but a transient supercell would again be possible with large hail not out of the realm of possibilities. Shower and thunderstorm activity may continue through most of the night, but should taper by Sunday`s sunrise. There should be a nice break through much of Sunday as temperatures warm into the mid to upper-90s across the area. Some CAMs suggest some thunderstorms may develop in the central Oklahoma Panhandle toward the late afternoon hours, but confidence is low at this time. Breezy conditions are expected Sunday night which should help keep lows across the area in the mid-60s to low-70s. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A seasonably impressive trough dips down into the Pacific Northwest on Monday and continues eastward through Tuesday. Temperatures on both days will be quite hot, with highs in the mid to upper-90s... some locations may reach 100 degrees. A shortwave trough embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to move in toward the late afternoon hours, but there will be some questions about whether or not the cap will be able to break. If the cap can break, damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat, but NBM gives a 10% PoP at best in the northern combined Panhandles which seems reasonable at this point. Tuesday, yet another embedded shortwave trough approaches the Panhandles in the afternoon hours. Thunderstorms would be possible, primarily in the northern combined Panhandles. Given high DCAPE values, damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. Heights aloft rise beyond Tuesday and steering flow becomes very weak. Models suggest a multi-day period of southeasterly surface winds will commence which would help draw in relatively rich moisture. Monsoon-like thunderstorms look possible through the rest of the work week, and the potentially early start of the thunderstorms should help keep temperatures around average for this time of year. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A thunderstorm may affect the AMA TAF site with brief heavy rain and gusty winds this afternoon or early this evening. Otherwise, skies are expected to remain VFR at all TAF sites. South and southwest winds in the 15 to 20 knot range with higher gusts will decrease and back some with the setting sun. South and southwest winds will pick up again by mid to late morning Sunday into the 15 to 20 knot range with higher gusts at all sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 67 93 70 95 / 30 0 10 10 Beaver OK 67 98 69 97 / 30 10 10 10 Boise City OK 64 98 67 98 / 20 10 0 0 Borger TX 69 98 73 99 / 20 10 10 10 Boys Ranch TX 66 97 71 99 / 30 0 10 10 Canyon TX 65 93 69 94 / 30 0 10 10 Clarendon TX 67 92 69 92 / 20 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 63 97 66 98 / 20 10 10 10 Guymon OK 65 96 68 97 / 20 10 10 0 Hereford TX 66 95 69 97 / 30 0 10 10 Lipscomb TX 69 96 70 95 / 30 10 10 0 Pampa TX 67 93 69 93 / 20 0 10 10 Shamrock TX 69 94 70 94 / 20 0 0 0 Wellington TX 70 95 71 95 / 20 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...15