255
FXUS64 KAMA 152322
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
622 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

An upper level short wave trough is moving away from the Panhandles
into central Kansas.  The Panhandles are on the subsidence side of
this departing short wave, but instability and moisture continue to
linger.  The moisture and instability will likely be enough to force
some more thunderstorms to develop mainly across the southeast half
of the area, so have continued with pops there this afternoon and
evening.  Some isolated thunderstorms may try to make a run at the
northwest CWA tonight in association with another short wave trough,
so have mentioned some low chances there.

Isolated thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon in the northwest
along a surface trough.  The upper level forcing is not the
greatest, but with warm temperatures and low level moisture, the
instability may be enough to produce a few thunderstorms. Highs on
Sunday are expected to be about 5 to 10 degree above average.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The Panhandles look to continue this active pattern as we head
into new week. Currently models are expecting southwesterly upper-
level flow over the Panhandles thanks to a decent trough setting
up in the Pacific Northwest for Monday and Tuesday. While normally
this would result in drier weather, a few short-waves will look
to keep potential in place as they force a pseudo dry line
boundary to set up around the western Panhandles. The question
then becomes whether this boundary or the short-wave will be
enough to overcome any cap to have storms initiate. As it stands
models and guidance do not favor Monday with a 15% chance of any
precipitation present at best. However, Tuesday looks to see
better and more widespread chances for the Northern portions of
the Panhandles with chances closer to 20 to 30% for the afternoon.
Regardless should storms form either day, then potential will be
present for those storms to go severe with MLCAPE currently
projected to be greater than 1000 J/kg each afternoon.

Heading into Wednesday and the end of the week, models expect
upper-level flow to weaken quite a bit as the Panhandles fall
under the two 500mb high pressure systems holding in the east and
southwestern portions of the United States. However rather than
leaving us dry, this set up will allow for good southeasterly flow
in the lower levels, which will allow for good moisture to move
over the area. As it stands, most models are already calling for
PWATs to once again be over one inch for the most of the
Panhandles clear into the weekend. This will also, lead to chances
of thunderstorms and showers every afternoon with current best
chances (25 to 35%) be seen by the models on Wednesday and
Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, look for this moisture to keep us
to a more seasonable normal temperature scale with most locations
in the 80s to low 90s for afternoon high temperatures.

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours
with some isolated storms possible across the Panhandles.  Overall,
confidence is not high enough to mention in the TAFs, and they will
be dealt with via amendments if necessary.  Best chances at this
time look to be KAMA and KGUY for storms in the 00-03z time period,
but again, confidence not high enough.  Winds out of the south for
the most part in the 10-20kt range, and gusting 30kts at times, wind
will continue to gust overnight out of the south as well.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                67  93  70  94 /  30   0  10  10
Beaver OK                  67  97  70  96 /  20  10  10  10
Boise City OK              64  97  66  98 /  10  20   0   0
Borger TX                  70  99  72  98 /  20   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              66  97  70  98 /  20  10  10  10
Canyon TX                  65  93  68  94 /  30   0   0  10
Clarendon TX               67  91  69  91 /  20   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 63  97  65  98 /  20  10   0  10
Guymon OK                  65  97  67  97 /  20  10  10   0
Hereford TX                66  95  69  96 /  20   0  10  10
Lipscomb TX                68  96  70  95 /  20  10  10   0
Pampa TX                   68  94  70  93 /  20  10   0  10
Shamrock TX                69  93  70  93 /  20  10   0   0
Wellington TX              70  95  71  94 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...89