Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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919 FXUS64 KAMA 120505 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1205 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A north-northwest flow aloft could drag a couple of thunderstorms into our far northwest late this afternoon and this evening. Have added a slight chance to these areas for this possibility. Any storms are expected to decrease with the setting sun. On Wednesday, thunderstorms are expected to develop along a surface trough from northeast New Mexico into western Kansas. The northwest flow is very light, so it is uncertain on whether storms can make into our area. For now have left them out. Highs on Wednesday are expected to be around or just above average with readings in the upper 80`s to the upper 90`s. && .LONG TERM ... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A southern stream sinusoidal pattern will dictate the weather pattern late this week into the coming weekend, before H500 zonal pattern returns next week to the southern High Plains. To start on Thursday, a low amplitude H500 ridge enters the western Panhandles. Could see a dirty ridge thunderstorm in the northern Panhandles, but otherwise, mostly dry and warm temperatures with H850 temps of +29 to +32C advecting into the Panhandles. High temperatures on Thursday should be well above average with many areas in the 100-104 degree range. If convective temps are reached, aided by the perturbations on the ridge, more areas could see more storms, and these storms could be strong to severe, but this forecast will be more finely tuned as we get closer. Latest 11/12Z model and numerical guidance are in some accord that a more organized h500 trough will traverse the Four Corners Region and aid in lift for additional thunderstorm chances from west to east throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms could be strong to severe with better lift in the area where large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats. High temperatures on Friday will remain above average. From Saturday into next week, a slowly progression from zonal to SW H500 flow should keep the area mostly dry. Diurnally driven thunderstorms formed off near orthogonal sfc boundaries and/or anemic perturbations in the synoptic flow could aid in thunderstorm genesis. Temperatures this coming weekend into early next week will remain above average. Meccariello && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Mainly VFR conditions expected across the panhandles and at all terminals for today. There may be an exception, if moisture is sufficient still then fog may form during the mid morning hours prior to sunrise. If this occurs and passes across a terminals then conditions will degrade to IFR. Any fog that does form will burn off rapidly with sunrise. Winds late this morning and afternoon will be gusty from the south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 82 61 90 66 / 10 0 0 0 Beaver OK 87 63 95 67 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 85 60 96 63 / 10 20 10 0 Borger TX 87 64 96 68 / 10 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 86 62 95 66 / 0 10 0 0 Canyon TX 82 60 90 65 / 10 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 79 61 87 64 / 20 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 85 60 95 62 / 10 20 10 0 Guymon OK 86 61 95 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 83 61 92 65 / 10 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 85 62 93 67 / 10 0 0 0 Pampa TX 82 62 90 66 / 10 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 82 62 88 66 / 20 0 0 0 Wellington TX 82 63 89 66 / 30 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...98