Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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733 FXUS64 KAMA 101054 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 554 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 An upper level disturbance is passing across the southern plains currently which is causing the rain showers and thunderstorm activity. This activity is most prominent in the SW and S portions of the TX panhandle with activity decreasing to the NE. The atmosphere remains abnormally moist with it being in the top 2.5% to 1% moistness for this time of year. The shear amount of moisture will allow any rain shower or thunderstorms to be very heavy with high rain rates. This will be compounded by the lack of steering flow aloft which will allow rain showers and thunderstorms to just sit over a single area for a long time. Both of these are creating a threat for flash flooding in the panhandles mainly during the morning but it could extend into the afternoon hours. An example of this threat has already been seen at Palo Duro Canyon which had accumulation of 1.5 in in less than 30 minutes. To add even further danger a large portion of the flood risk will occur during the dark of night making it harder to detect any ongoing flooding. So be sure to stay alert, Turn Around and Dont Drown as flood water can easily sweep away vehicles and kill their occupants. While the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms will persist into overnight hours going into Tuesday. However moisture will be departing the area starting this evening so the threat of flooding will be reduced for that time. Moisture will continue to depart through Tuesday morning as drier air works it way across the panhandles. This will erode away the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms seeing them largely cease by the late evening. Temperatures till be on the rise for Tuesday as a ridge begins to reestablish itself over the panhandles. This will see the highs increase to the 80s across the panhandles. SH && .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Wednesday and Thursday should see a ridge establish itself over the southern plains including the panhandles. This will help to move in mostly dry air to the panhandles making the weather mostly fair for both days. There may be an exception for Thursday afternoon as some mid level moisture moves across the panhandles which may just be sufficient to spark off a high based shower or thunderstorms. Under the ridge the temperatures will continue to rise with Wednesday seeing 90s while Thursday see 90s and 100s. This ridge is not strong and will likely break down starting later Thursday which will allow a trough to pass across the southern plains for the weekend. This will spread moisture into the panhandles on Friday with the NW panhandles being more likely to see moisture compared to the SE panhandles. This moisture will cause rain showers and thunderstorms starting during the afternoon. The overall dynamics at this time appear to be marginal at best so the risk of severe weather is likely to be very low. This could change if the trough becomes more potent and passes directly across the panhandles. The passage of the trough will not bring any relief to the heat with highs remaining in the 90s to 100s. Sunday has a moderate chance to see the trough push off to the east ejecting the moisture out of the panhandles. This would leave the area dry with fair weather to start off next week. The odds seem better than not that a ridge will set up over the panhandles for next week. If this comes about then the dry weather should extend into the mid next week. SH && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 531 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A weather system continues to impact the panhandles causing rain showers and embedded thunderstorms. KAMA and KDHT have the highest chances of being impacted. KGUY has a small chance of being impacted as well but it was not high enough to carry within the TAF. Flooding may occur if an especially heavy showers linger over an airfield but this represents a very low, but not zero, chance. Low ceilings are present across the panhandles of MVFR levels. These may improve briefly to VFR during the afternoon hours but going into the evening they are likely to fall back to MVFR of even IFR. This evening into the overnight hours there is a chance that fog may form as well but the threat is still to uncertain to reflect in the TAFs at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 75 60 84 62 / 70 50 40 10 Beaver OK 83 61 88 63 / 10 20 20 10 Boise City OK 75 57 87 60 / 40 30 20 10 Borger TX 80 63 88 64 / 50 40 30 10 Boys Ranch TX 77 60 87 63 / 60 50 30 10 Canyon TX 75 59 83 62 / 70 50 40 10 Clarendon TX 75 61 81 62 / 60 40 50 20 Dalhart TX 75 57 87 59 / 50 40 20 10 Guymon OK 79 59 87 61 / 30 20 20 10 Hereford TX 77 60 85 62 / 70 50 30 10 Lipscomb TX 82 62 86 63 / 10 20 20 10 Pampa TX 77 62 83 63 / 40 30 30 10 Shamrock TX 80 63 82 62 / 30 30 40 20 Wellington TX 80 64 83 63 / 40 40 40 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...98