Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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681 FXUS64 KAMA 272342 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 642 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Through tonight, the upper level ridge of high pressure has temporarily flattened and become depressed south of the forecast area. This has caused the upper level flow to become more zonal or westerly, and should steer most showers and thunderstorms generally eastward compared to the past few days. The latest crop of showers and storms has begun developing over southeast Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and the western OK Panhandle. Given the overall upper level zonal flow, it appears the OK Panhandle and far northern Texas Panhandle will have the best chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout the evening hours, with values lowering southward through the southern Texas Panhandle. Pops were created in this manner. It appears some drier air at the surface and aloft may move into southwest sections of the Texas Panhandle based on latest short range models, and this may limit precipitation formation. A few storms may become strong to severe, with damaging winds and large hail the primary hazards. Also, the strongest storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, which may lead to flooding or flash flooding. For Friday and Friday night, heights rise some as the upper level ridge of high pressure reasserts itself over the southern plains. This will result in another day of high temperatures near or exceeding 100 degrees across most of the area. Additional Heat Advisories may be needed in locations where the Heat Index or temperature equals or exceeds 105 degrees. The cap may strengthen through the day on Friday so have kept pops below mentionable for this package. Pops return Friday night with highest values across north central and northeastern sections as a weak cold front moves through the OK Panhandle and most of the northern Texas Panhandle by 12Z Saturday. 02 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 For Saturday and Saturday night, the aforementioned weak cold front is slated to move through the southern Texas Panhandle Saturday morning and stall near or just south of the forecast area. Otherwise, the upper level ridge of high pressure is progged to remain intact across the southern plains. A minor upper level shortwave trof is forecast to round the top of the ridge and across the northern sections late Saturday afternoon and night. Given sufficient daytime heating and atmospheric instability, this feature, coupled with the close proximity of the weak cold frontal boundary and ample moisture should result in the development of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and night. A few storms may become severe during the late afternoon and evening hours, with damaging winds and large hail the primary hazards in addition to heavy rainfall and the corresponding potential for flooding or flash flooding. Precipitation chances diminish on Sunday as the upper level ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the southern plains. The ridge is progged to slide to the east of the region on Tuesday and Wednesday with our forecast area on the western flank of this ridge. The associated southwest flow aloft should help steer moisture associated with the summer monsoon into the area with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning Tuesday night and Wednesday. NBM pops and temperatures reflect the above reasoning and were accepted for all periods of the long term forecast. 02 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 For the 00Z TAFs, showers and thunderstorms over northwest sections of the area are expected to continue moving eastward this evening and may affect KGUY and KDHT. Have included VCTS at both sites for a few hours this evening based on current radar data. Confidence is quite low on any storms affecting KAMA so have opted not to mention for that site. Once showers and storms dissipate late tonight, additional development is not anticipated for the remainder of this forecast cycle. 02 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 76 101 72 96 / 10 10 20 20 Beaver OK 75 103 69 90 / 40 10 40 20 Boise City OK 69 97 66 85 / 40 10 20 30 Borger TX 79 105 74 100 / 20 10 20 20 Boys Ranch TX 75 103 71 94 / 20 10 20 20 Canyon TX 74 100 72 94 / 10 10 10 20 Clarendon TX 75 101 76 97 / 10 10 10 20 Dalhart TX 70 100 67 88 / 30 10 20 30 Guymon OK 72 101 67 88 / 40 10 30 20 Hereford TX 74 102 72 96 / 10 0 10 20 Lipscomb TX 78 104 72 96 / 20 10 30 20 Pampa TX 77 102 73 96 / 10 10 20 20 Shamrock TX 76 104 76 100 / 10 0 10 20 Wellington TX 77 105 78 101 / 10 0 10 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ020-317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...02 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...02