Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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761 FXUS64 KAMA 161729 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 244 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Showers with isolated thunderstorms are developing in the NW combined Panhandles as of 0530z as a result of embedded perturbations in the flow aloft, and possibly being aided by being on the nose of a 850mb jet. CAMs aren`t handling this activity well, but it is moving into a more moist environment. Although SPC mesoanalysis suggests there is around 1000-2000 J/kg of instability ahead of it, the amount of effective instability based off near-term model forecast soundings in the vicinity seems to be less. Nonetheless, given the trends and the upstream environment, this activity may continue southeastward through the night and some thunderstorms are possible but the chance for a strong to severe thunderstorm seems very low. Expecting much of the daytime hours to be dry today as the atmosphere recovers from the overnight showers and thunderstorms. A surface low will develop and strengthen to around 995mb throughout the day, tightening the surface pressure gradient which will result in breezy southerly winds. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper-90s this afternoon which should result in a weakly to non- capped atmosphere such that any perturbation that moves into the area could produce a thunderstorm. This would be most favored (15- 20% chance) in the western combined Panhandles and the Oklahoma Panhandle (10% chance). The main limiting factors in the potential for thunderstorms this afternoon is the timing and location of any perturbation in the flow aloft. The mid-level winds look weaker than yesterday which leads to effective wind shear being more in the 20- 30 kt range which suggests multi-cells would be the more favored storm mode. On the other hand, the atmosphere has the potential to be more unstable with MLCAPE potentially being as high as 2000-2500 J/kg. Therefore, if a thunderstorm does develop, it could become strong to severe with the primary hazards being damaging winds and large hail. Any thunderstorm that can develop should dissipate in the evening hours as CIN increases. Breezy southerly winds continue through the night. Monday, the upper-level trough in the Northwestern US will move eastward slightly and the upper-level flow over the Panhandles will strengthen. Breezy southerly winds are expected to continue through Monday, but a surface trough should develop in eastern New Mexico and mix eastward through the day into the northwestern combined Panhandles. Again, if the cap weakens enough, any weak perturbation in the flow aloft could be enough to force thunderstorms. This would be most favored (15% chance) in the western combined Panhandles ahead of the surface trough. There is a low chance that these thunderstorms could be strong to severe with the primary threat being damaging winds and large hail. Convective activity should decrease through the evening hours, and once again, breezy winds will continue through the night due to the tight surface pressure gradient. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 244 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 A fairly active pattern is progged to return Tuesday with some relief from the above average temperatures starting Wed. At least parts of the combined Panhandles are looking to carry a 20 to 30 PoPs from Tue night through Sat night. After one last day of highs in the 90s Tue, highs are progged to be in the 80s Wed through Fri, with Sat potentially warming to the 90s again. Going into Tue upper level troughing over western CONUS will continue to bring southwesterly flow aloft for the combined Panhandles Tue into Wed. Closer to the surface high pressure to the east-southeast is expected to feed in some Gulf moisture and also increase the surface pressure gradient as low pressure sits over portions of CO and NM. Breezy 25 to 30 mph winds are possible on Tuesday afternoon, with wind gusts of 35 to potentially 40 mph over the northeastern combined Panhandles. Some instability from the Gulf moisture coming in will aide in thunderstorm potential starting Tue night. One possible inhibiting factor for early storms Tue afternoon will be a warm layer around H7 that could keep surface based storms from forming. Its not until the overnight hours into Wed morning where some perturbations in the flow aloft may help spark some thunderstorms. Also, a weak cold front is progged to move into the area going into Wed morning which may help storm activity and help cool daytime temperatures in the 80s for Wed afternoon. Overall, confidence is low at this time in having widespread severe thunderstorms. Going into Thu, while still under southwest flow aloft a tropical system is progged to move onto the Texas coast bringing quite a bit of Gulf moisture with it. This may feed some precipitation chances in the combined Panhandles Thu into Fri. Have stayed with the NBM PoPs for now which have 30s mainly in the southern TX Panhandle Thu afternoon and favoring the west on Fri. Will have to wait and see how this system progresses on land Thu and Fri, to see who gets the rain and how much rain falls. Going into Sat high pressure aloft begins to dominate much of southern CONUS from FL westward to AZ. High temperatures over the FA are then progged to return to the 90s. With perturbations in the ridge aloft there will still be a slight chance PoPs for Sat afternoon. 36 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Surfaces winds will likely remain breezy to gust for most of the afternoon and evening thanks to a lee-side surface low off the southern portions of the Front Ranges. Look for speeds to be in the 20 to 25 mph range with gust nearing 35 mph at times. Low chances at thunderstorms still exist this afternoon with KDHT and KGUY still having the better chances of seeing impacts. However, latest models runs are still not to enthusiastic about the possibility with some only giving a 15 to 20% chance at an isolated storm. Have left the vicinity showers present in the TAF package for now, given that confidence is not high enough for anything else. Otherwise, VFR conditions should hold outside of any storm interference. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 70 94 69 93 / 20 20 20 10 Beaver OK 71 96 70 96 / 20 10 10 10 Boise City OK 67 99 67 98 / 20 10 10 0 Borger TX 73 99 72 97 / 20 10 20 10 Boys Ranch TX 70 98 71 97 / 20 20 20 10 Canyon TX 69 94 68 92 / 20 20 20 10 Clarendon TX 69 91 69 90 / 10 0 10 0 Dalhart TX 66 98 66 97 / 20 20 10 0 Guymon OK 69 96 68 97 / 20 20 20 10 Hereford TX 69 96 69 95 / 20 20 20 10 Lipscomb TX 71 95 71 94 / 20 0 0 0 Pampa TX 70 93 70 92 / 10 10 10 10 Shamrock TX 71 94 70 92 / 10 0 0 0 Wellington TX 72 94 71 93 / 10 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...11