Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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359 FXUS64 KAMA 280548 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1248 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Through tonight, the upper level ridge of high pressure has temporarily flattened and become depressed south of the forecast area. This has caused the upper level flow to become more zonal or westerly, and should steer most showers and thunderstorms generally eastward compared to the past few days. The latest crop of showers and storms has begun developing over southeast Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and the western OK Panhandle. Given the overall upper level zonal flow, it appears the OK Panhandle and far northern Texas Panhandle will have the best chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout the evening hours, with values lowering southward through the southern Texas Panhandle. Pops were created in this manner. It appears some drier air at the surface and aloft may move into southwest sections of the Texas Panhandle based on latest short range models, and this may limit precipitation formation. A few storms may become strong to severe, with damaging winds and large hail the primary hazards. Also, the strongest storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, which may lead to flooding or flash flooding. For Friday and Friday night, heights rise some as the upper level ridge of high pressure reasserts itself over the southern plains. This will result in another day of high temperatures near or exceeding 100 degrees across most of the area. Additional Heat Advisories may be needed in locations where the Heat Index or temperature equals or exceeds 105 degrees. The cap may strengthen through the day on Friday so have kept pops below mentionable for this package. Pops return Friday night with highest values across north central and northeastern sections as a weak cold front moves through the OK Panhandle and most of the northern Texas Panhandle by 12Z Saturday. 02 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 For Saturday and Saturday night, the aforementioned weak cold front is slated to move through the southern Texas Panhandle Saturday morning and stall near or just south of the forecast area. Otherwise, the upper level ridge of high pressure is progged to remain intact across the southern plains. A minor upper level shortwave trof is forecast to round the top of the ridge and across the northern sections late Saturday afternoon and night. Given sufficient daytime heating and atmospheric instability, this feature, coupled with the close proximity of the weak cold frontal boundary and ample moisture should result in the development of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and night. A few storms may become severe during the late afternoon and evening hours, with damaging winds and large hail the primary hazards in addition to heavy rainfall and the corresponding potential for flooding or flash flooding. Precipitation chances diminish on Sunday as the upper level ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the southern plains. The ridge is progged to slide to the east of the region on Tuesday and Wednesday with our forecast area on the western flank of this ridge. The associated southwest flow aloft should help steer moisture associated with the summer monsoon into the area with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning Tuesday night and Wednesday. NBM pops and temperatures reflect the above reasoning and were accepted for all periods of the long term forecast. 02 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 TAFs are VFR for the 06Z period. A small chance for thunderstorms exist near the GUY terminal tomorrow evening; however, confidence is not high enough for impacts to include mentions of thunder in the TAFs. Low level winds will be on the breezy side tonight, with sustained winds for the morning hours ranging between 10-15 kts. Later on today, winds will increase at AMA were sustains should range between 20-25 kts, gusting to 35 kts at times. Strong winds will then expire by the evening hours. Rangel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 101 72 96 72 / 10 20 20 50 Beaver OK 103 69 90 67 / 10 40 20 50 Boise City OK 97 66 85 64 / 10 20 30 50 Borger TX 105 74 100 72 / 10 20 20 50 Boys Ranch TX 103 71 94 70 / 10 20 20 50 Canyon TX 100 72 94 70 / 10 10 20 40 Clarendon TX 101 76 97 73 / 10 10 20 40 Dalhart TX 100 67 88 65 / 10 20 30 50 Guymon OK 101 67 88 66 / 10 30 20 50 Hereford TX 102 72 96 71 / 0 10 20 40 Lipscomb TX 104 72 96 70 / 10 30 20 50 Pampa TX 102 73 96 71 / 10 20 20 50 Shamrock TX 104 76 100 74 / 0 10 20 40 Wellington TX 105 78 101 76 / 0 10 20 30 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...02 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...55