813
FXUS64 KAMA 262343
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
643 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A surface boundary has made it`s way to the southern Texas Panhandle
with easterly winds behind it.  A weak cold front has moved into the
far northern Texas Panhandle with a little bit stronger easterly
winds behind it.  Temperatures are also a little cooler behind this
front in the north.  Thunderstorms may develop across the southern
Texas Panhandle in association with this first boundary. However,
moisture is lacking and the instability isn`t the greatest.  The
better chance at seeing storms hold together will be across the
northwest in association with the cluster of storms moving east in
northeast New Mexico.  These storms have a little better moisture to
work with along with better shear and instability.  Storms are
expected to move across the northwest late this afternoon into this
evening with isolated storms further south across the southwest and
south-central Texas Panhandle.  Storms across the south are expected
to dissipate with the setting sun, while the storms across the north
carry on past sunset.  More storms may develop after midnight in the
Texas Panhandle as a low level jet brings additional moisture and an
upper level short wave trough moves across the Oklahoma Panhandle.

Thunderstorms may be still ongoing in the eastern Panhandles after
sunrise on Thursday in association with this upper level short wave.
Thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon may be somewhat dependent on
how widespread the rain is Thursday morning.  Confidence is highest
in thunderstorms again developing in the northwest late in the
afternoon where the atmosphere will recover the quickest. The
thunderstorm chances will then be the greatest across the Oklahoma
Panhandle Thursday night closest to the upper level dynamics.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The center of the upper level high will remain to the southeast of
the Panhandles through next Tuesday.  This will put the Panhandles
in a west to southwest flow aloft, especially Friday through Sunday
which will continue to pump sub-tropical moisture over the area.
This moisture combined with and occasional vort max will help to
bring daily chances of showers and thunderstorms to the area.  A
stalled frontal boundary across the area on Saturday may help to
enhance the shower and thunderstorm risk.  The high starts to build
more over the Panhandles Monday and Tuesday and this may keep the
rain chances to our west for a brief time.

Friday still looks to be the hottest day with some locations
eclipsing 105 degrees in the Texas Panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout the majority of the TAF period.
The only exception would be for erratic winds if nearby TS move
over TAF sites. This is possible through around 06Z, before
chances diminish. Winds overall will be out of the southeast at
10-15 kts with higher gusts at times.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                72  98  76 102 /  40  10  10   0
Beaver OK                  71  97  76 102 /  40  20  20  10
Boise City OK              68  95  68  99 /  50  30  20  10
Borger TX                  75 103  80 108 /  40  10  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              72 100  75 104 /  50  10  10   0
Canyon TX                  71  97  75 101 /  30  20  10   0
Clarendon TX               73  97  76 102 /  20  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 69  97  70 102 /  40  20  10  10
Guymon OK                  70  97  73 102 /  50  20  30  10
Hereford TX                72  99  75 103 /  30  20  10   0
Lipscomb TX                73  99  79 105 /  40  20  10   0
Pampa TX                   72  98  77 103 /  30  10  10   0
Shamrock TX                73  99  78 104 /  30  10   0   0
Wellington TX              75 101  79 105 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ010-015-018>020-
     317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...29