544
FXUS64 KAMA 300522
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1222 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Cold front has made its way to near Highway 60 and is finally
showing signs of stalling as expected. CU has begun to form near
and behind the boundary with even some moderate CU noted. The
dewpoints behind the front remain in the 60s, but some 40s
dewpoints have pushed across the northern half of Kansas with a
subtle second surge. Thunderstorms are expected to develop first
near the boundary with Amarillo on the southern edge of the
activity this aftn. A second area of development associated with
a mid-upr level S/WV and elevated portions of the front is
expected later this evening moving out of NM into the NW
Panhandles. Severe parameters all favor areas further north behind
the front and this activity has the greater chance for becoming
more organized and widespread. ML CAPE across the north is
forecast to 1500-2500 j/kg and effective bulk shear is forecast to
remain 40-50 kts. Warmer mid level temps seem to favor wind over
hail for the greatest threat. High moisture content and a modest
h85 LLJ reaching 25-30 kts will also aid in providing threats for
heavy rainfall and flooding. HREF probs indicate up to 40-60%
probs of 1 hour rainfall rates of 1 inch or greater and storm
total probs exceeding 3 inches are around 10-20% across the north.
We strongly considered a flood watch across the north-northwest,
but held off as there are some concerns that several cams have
recently backed off convection in the northwest. This seems to be
tied to models that are more agressive with the dry air moving
into the area from the north which leads to greater capping and
much less convection. If it becomes more apparently things are
coming together (18Z models back to favoring this), we may need
to consider a short lead flash flood watch. SPC continues to
maintain a slight risk for the NW and WPC is maintaining a slight
risk for flooding in similar region.

Some lingering showers will be possible tomorrow. There are CAMS
attempting to convect weakly along the stalled boundary mainly
across the east given very moist conditions, but w/ H5 negative
vorticity building overhead and ridging extends over the area
from the SE and H5 temps warming to an impressively warm -2 deg C.
This suggest any activity would almost certainly not be severe
and may not exceed shower status. After lingering chc pops
(30-40%) across the NE in the morning, aftn POPs are being held at
10-20%.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The H5 high building over the area Sun into Mon will lead to hot
temps on Monday and Tuesday. PDC will likely exceed heat advisory
criteria both days and a few other typical hot spots in the area
may also approach advisory levels as well. The high will
transition east allowing H5 heights and temps to fall. S/WVs in SW
flow followed by NW flow aloft, high moisture levels and another
frontal boundary (eventually) will lead to potential for daily
convection Tue night through Sat night. Obviously details are
sketchy at this point, but certainly it appears an active period
could impact holiday activities.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Low clouds may be working their way to the KGUY and KDHT terminals
over the next few hours. MVFR to borderline IFR cigs will be
possible through about 15z. Thereafter conditions should start to
improve. East wind around 10-15kts expected through about 18z as
the winds will start to veer to the southeast. While thunderstorms
are possible from the 06-12z time period, the confidence is low
and the timing is too uncertain to include at this time. If storms
look to impact terminals, will deal with via amendments.

Weber


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                72  97  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  70  99  76 102 /  10   0   0  10
Boise City OK              68  96  71  97 /   0   0   0  10
Borger TX                  75 103  78 106 /   0   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              73  99  75 103 /   0   0   0  10
Canyon TX                  71  97  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               72  97  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 68  98  71 100 /   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                  69  99  74 101 /  10   0   0  10
Hereford TX                70  97  72 100 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                72  99  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   71  98  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                73 100  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              75 100  76 103 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ001-002.

OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...89