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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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965 FXUS64 KAMA 281908 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 208 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 As of this afternoon latest observations sensors where seeing a decent southwesterly breezy make its way across the Panhandles thanks to a lee-side surface low present just to our northwest. This low and associated breeze has help dry out the southwestern Panhandles slightly and will be key to our expected heat for the rest of the CWA. As it stands most models are still expecting the Panhandles to hit the high 90s to triple digits, with many locations already in the low to mid 90s this early afternoon. Given this potential as well as the current present high humidity, a Heat Advisory remains in places for the Palo Duro Canyon and the eastern most counties of the combine Panhandles until 8 PM tonight. As we head towards those later evening and overnight hours, models are still on track for a trough to start pushing into the area. This trough will cause the surface low to push off and winds to decrease later tonight. On the other side, potential for activity does remain present with the arrival of the upper- level trough in the northern Panhandles. However, the recent CAMs have not been very enthusiastic about the potential with a recent runs only seeing a couple of showers late tonight. Still there is some potential for a storm to pulse up enough to leave a severe wind gust upon it collapse with models seeing DCAPE around 1500 J/kg. Better chances for activity may have to wait till Saturday when many of the models are expecting the associated frontal boundary to move into the Panhandles. The positioning of this boundary will very much determine the location of activity for the day as it will serve as the main lifting mechanism for the day. As for the potential for severe, once again this may solely focused on the position of the boundary with many models seeing the best CAPE and shear around it. As it stands most models are seeing MLCAPE values run around 1500 J/kg with effective bulk running as high as 35 kt. However, once a storms gets off the boundary those values significantly drop off which will make it hard for something to maintain itself. Instead, the threat for that day may once again turn to flooding, especially if the models are correct and the boundary stalls much like what happened a few weeks ago. While the PWAT values are not as good as the last event, models are still projecting 1.5 inch or greater present for most of the Panhandles. Of course this will also play a factor in our temperatures for the day as well. Should none of this come to pass, then it would be possible for temperature to once again reach the triple digits though current best chances of those values are only present in the south. Scoleri && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Activity may look to follow into Sunday as models are still seeing potential for the frontal boundary to remain stalled over the Panhandles through the late afternoon time frame. Once again main threat may still be flooding as showers and thunderstorms could be a continuation of activity Saturday. However, a few severe storms could still be present that afternoon. Regardless, the Panhandles should begin to dry out later that evening with the exit of the trough and frontal boundary. Heading into the Holiday workweek, Monday and Tuesday will look to be dry as the upper-level high pressure system moves back over the Panhandles for both days. This will allow temperatures to once again climb with potential to see widespread triple digit temperatures Tuesday. However, dont expect this to last into the Forth of July as many model are seeing a new system move across starting Wednesday. This trough will aid in pushing the upper-level high back east and in turn open the Panhandles back up to good low-level moisture. Expect PWAT values to once again rise above 1.5 inches for most locations with chances of showers and thunderstorms present each afternoon clear into the Holiday weekend. Meanwhile, temperatures will slightly lower with all the expected activity, but still look for most locations to be in the 90s for the rest of the period. Scoleri && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Breezy southwesterly winds are expected to continue at the terminals through the afternoon and evening with the arrival of the upper-level trough seeing winds slow. Potential for showers still do exist for late this evening and overnight hours with KGUY the more likely terminal to see any impacts. However, latest high resolutions models are starting to back off the potential with most models now seeing chances below 20%. Given this, have removed the Prob-30 from the KGUY TAF grouping for this package. Otherwise, VFR conditions should hold at all terminals for this package. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 75 98 72 93 / 10 30 40 20 Beaver OK 71 93 67 90 / 20 20 60 30 Boise City OK 66 88 64 89 / 20 30 60 30 Borger TX 76 101 73 97 / 10 30 50 20 Boys Ranch TX 73 97 71 95 / 10 20 40 20 Canyon TX 73 96 71 92 / 10 20 30 10 Clarendon TX 75 97 73 93 / 10 20 30 20 Dalhart TX 67 93 67 93 / 10 20 50 20 Guymon OK 69 91 66 91 / 20 20 60 20 Hereford TX 73 98 71 95 / 10 20 30 10 Lipscomb TX 74 97 70 92 / 20 20 50 30 Pampa TX 74 98 71 92 / 10 30 40 20 Shamrock TX 77 100 73 95 / 10 20 30 20 Wellington TX 78 101 75 96 / 10 10 20 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ005-010-015-020- 317. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11