544
FXUS64 KAMA 270600
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
100 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A surface boundary has made it`s way to the southern Texas Panhandle
with easterly winds behind it.  A weak cold front has moved into the
far northern Texas Panhandle with a little bit stronger easterly
winds behind it.  Temperatures are also a little cooler behind this
front in the north.  Thunderstorms may develop across the southern
Texas Panhandle in association with this first boundary. However,
moisture is lacking and the instability isn`t the greatest.  The
better chance at seeing storms hold together will be across the
northwest in association with the cluster of storms moving east in
northeast New Mexico.  These storms have a little better moisture to
work with along with better shear and instability.  Storms are
expected to move across the northwest late this afternoon into this
evening with isolated storms further south across the southwest and
south-central Texas Panhandle.  Storms across the south are expected
to dissipate with the setting sun, while the storms across the north
carry on past sunset.  More storms may develop after midnight in the
Texas Panhandle as a low level jet brings additional moisture and an
upper level short wave trough moves across the Oklahoma Panhandle.

Thunderstorms may be still ongoing in the eastern Panhandles after
sunrise on Thursday in association with this upper level short wave.
Thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon may be somewhat dependent on
how widespread the rain is Thursday morning.  Confidence is highest
in thunderstorms again developing in the northwest late in the
afternoon where the atmosphere will recover the quickest. The
thunderstorm chances will then be the greatest across the Oklahoma
Panhandle Thursday night closest to the upper level dynamics.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The center of the upper level high will remain to the southeast of
the Panhandles through next Tuesday.  This will put the Panhandles
in a west to southwest flow aloft, especially Friday through Sunday
which will continue to pump sub-tropical moisture over the area.
This moisture combined with and occasional vort max will help to
bring daily chances of showers and thunderstorms to the area.  A
stalled frontal boundary across the area on Saturday may help to
enhance the shower and thunderstorm risk.  The high starts to build
more over the Panhandles Monday and Tuesday and this may keep the
rain chances to our west for a brief time.

Friday still looks to be the hottest day with some locations
eclipsing 105 degrees in the Texas Panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Mostly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Possible
VCTS/TS at KAMA in the next 1 to 3 hours as there are some back
building showers, but for now will deal with that site via
amendments. There is the possibility of some low clouds in the
10-15z time period, but again cig/vis restriction confidence not
high enough, but MVFR fuel alternate possible with a lower
confidence in IFR conditions. From 21z onward, the main focus
would be KDHT and KGUY as there`s a chance we could have another
round of storms impact the terminals. But that will be noted as we
get closer to the 18/00z TAF package, unless confidence increases.
Winds will be light and variable overnight, with breezy winds out
of the south southwest picking up after 15z.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                76 102  74  96 /  10   0  10  20
Beaver OK                  76 102  69  94 /  20  10  30  20
Boise City OK              68  99  65  89 /  20  10  10  20
Borger TX                  80 108  74 100 /  10   0  10  20
Boys Ranch TX              75 104  71  96 /  10   0  10  20
Canyon TX                  75 101  73  94 /  10   0  10  20
Clarendon TX               76 102  77  98 /   0   0  10  20
Dalhart TX                 70 102  66  92 /  10  10  10  20
Guymon OK                  73 102  68  92 /  30  10  20  10
Hereford TX                75 103  72  96 /  10   0  10  20
Lipscomb TX                79 105  74  98 /  10   0  20  30
Pampa TX                   77 103  74  97 /  10   0  10  20
Shamrock TX                78 104  78 101 /   0   0  10  30
Wellington TX              79 105  79 102 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...89