Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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629 FXUS63 KAPX 260133 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 933 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Small potential for more showers on Wednesday. - Active weather returns this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 932 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Stalled low pressure north of Georgian Bay is pushing a secondary cold front south across northern lower MI. The boundary has a well-defined wind shift (from wsw/w to nw) and a fine line on radar. This front has ignited showers over ne lower MI this evening. 00Z APX sounding had 1k j/kg of MlCape; not stunning that a trigger mechanism was enough to kick some showers off. Have added a few showers along and south of this front in ne lower MI, before it departs southward in the next 1-2 hours. Much drier air easing in behind the front. Surface dew points are near 70f near/south of M-55, have dropped to around 50f in western Chip/Mack Cos. This will gradually make inroads tonight, though lightening winds will slow that progress. Sheltered locales could have a shot at some fog tonight. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Shortwave trough and its attendant cold front (responsible for this mornings active weather) now off to our east, with post-system subsidence and building surface high pressure having ended the rain threat. Progressive pattern of late set to continue, with weak surface high passing overhead tonight...quickly followed by next shortwave trough and weak surface reflection on Wednesday. Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Temperature/cloud trends and addressing that shower threat on Wednesday. Details: Dry conditions expected the rest through tonight as that weak area of high pressure slides overhead. May see some patchy fog tonight with the wet ground from recent rains. Not expecting this to become too significant with maintenance of some light winds. Next wave and attendant weak surface reflection set to arrive on Wednesday. All appreciable moisture and instability will be locked up well to our south, leaving little for the above to work on. However, just enough low level convergence and remnant moisture to perhaps kick off a few showers...especially across northeast lower Michigan where that convergence will be maximized. Shouldn`t be a big deal at all, with most areas and much of the time remaining dry. Definitely a bit cooler tomorrow, with highs only expected to top out in the 60s north of the big bridge, and from the mid 60s north to mid 70s southeast across northern lower Michigan. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A ridge of high pressure builds over the Great Lakes Region as a trough swings out of the forecast area by Wednesday night. Dryer weather will persist through the day Friday with climatological temperatures expected (mid to upper 70s/ low 80s). Another trough and its associated low pressure, originating from the west coast, will track to the area by the weekend bringing back active weather. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: - Weekend Precipitation Chances: A longwave trough and its associated low pressure will track towards the Great Lakes Region Friday night/ Saturday bringing active weather back to the forecast area. Guidance is suggesting that an ample amount of moisture will be brought into the region with PWAT (precipitable water) values of 1.8 to 2 inches, suggesting heavy rainfall likely at this time. Current thinking is that this will be a linear set-up that would track from west to east across the forecast area. With little instability being advertised, severe weather is not expected. However, some gusty winds could be possible. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune these details in the coming days! && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 723 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR. Much drier air will enter the region on nw-erly breezes. Should see enough of a breeze tonight to prevent most fog. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JZ SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...NSC AVIATION...JZ