Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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488 FXUS63 KAPX 171730 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 130 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures and rain-free weather persists, leading to elevated fire danger at times this week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1032 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Dry and warm conditions on the way today with high fire danger. Cool conditions tonight with isolated pockets of fog. Current forecast remains on track, see discussion below for more details. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 321 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Pattern/synopsis: Ridging extends into the central Great Lakes from the east. Weak return/southerly flow here in northern MI. Forecast: More of the same. We will mix up into some drier air as the day proceeds, making things a touch breezier and drier this afternoon. Little cloud cover, except perhaps some afternoon cu in western Chip/Mack Cos. High temps should have little difficulty exceeding most guidance, with mostly mid 80s give or take. Lows tonight will be cool, probably a hair cooler than this morning. Mid 40s to mid 50s most commonly. Patchy fog again possible late. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 321 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A fairly active pattern across the CONUS in the upper levels with three closed lows impacting various regions. The state of MI is one of the few who get left of out the precipitation and wind Wednesday through the weekend due to high pressure persisting through Friday. Warm temperatures, hazy skies, and light winds (with a lake breeze in the afternoon hours) will continue to be seen Wednesday and Thursday. Friday, chances have increased with skies filling with mid to higher level clouds, which could limit afternoon temperatures by a few degrees. Global deterministic guidance is finally agreeing on some moisture riding over the upper ridge and reaching northern MI Friday night into Saturday. Any rain that does fall will not amount to much (maybe a few hundredths of an inch). Global ensembles are a little more uncertain on the next chance for precipitation, with 23% of members saying light rain by early Saturday and the majority of the remaining members holding off until Sunday. Any rain chances yield light accumulations across northern lower and eastern upper, meaning its unlikely to make a dent in drier conditions of late. More possible rain early next week, however this pattern has a lot of moving pieces to it which makes early next week`s forecast highly uncertain. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 128 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Mainly VFR through the period, although isolated pockets of FG will be possible tonight into early Wednesday morning, especially across southeast portions of northern lower Michigan. Winds light AOB 5 to 10KTs through Wednesday, direction 090-150. Clouds SKC- SCT250 generally. Dry conditions persist. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JLD SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...JLD