Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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827 FXUS63 KAPX 201457 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1057 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temps and showers with slight chances for thunder across northern lower today. - Wet weather continues through early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1034 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Band of showers continues eastward into Lake Huron meanwhile another batch approaches the Lake Michigan shoreline by Manistee. In-between, clouds and light showers possible into the early afternoon with showers and a few storms possible later this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Temperatures remain challenging in regards to the amount of clearing and thus warming, but 70s across a good chunk of the area looks likely. No other hazards anticipated with wetting rains possible this weekend (specifically Saturday). && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Pattern Synopsis: The mid/upper-level pattern across the eastern half of the CONUS will continue to flatten through the period as the jet punches to our north across Ontario/Quebec. Relatively weak high pressure will build across the far northern Great Lakes today as a cold front continues to sag south this morning, eventually settling near the state border. Forecast Details: Cooler temps, showers/slight chance thunder -- Ongoing band of showers across northwest lower, Tip of the Mitt, and the eastern U.P. will continue to fold over northern lower Michigan this morning, gradually weakening with time as favorable support wanes. Isolated to scattered cells/clusters to the southeast of this band are also possible through the morning/early afternoon. While meager buoyancy will be in place with saturated profiles aloft, slight chances for embedded thunder cannot be ruled out with this activity. Overall, rain chances are expected to diminish this afternoon into this evening. While showers and associated cloud cover will impact highs today, much more comfortable temperatures are in store for northern Michigan after a several day stretch of hot, humid conditions. Temperatures look to warm into the low to mid 70s this afternoon, and may warm into the upper 70s/low 80s locally should more sunshine than clouds persist during peak heating. Warmest temperatures are most likely along and south of M-72. Overnight lows look to only cool into the low to mid 60s for many areas south of the bridge as chances for showers increase late tonight into Friday morning -- particularly across northwest lower/Tip of the Mitt. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: The upper level high starts to migrate westward with the center of the ridge landing over central Mississippi River Valley by Friday. Heights begin to slowly trend up again, however generally zonal flow will be seen aloft. A few surface features will move towards the Great Lakes region from the central and northern plains Friday through early next week. With the moisture around the high remaining over the CWA, each time a surface low or frontal boundary moves through it will bring precipitation chances with it. To summarize current guidance details, stratiform rain chances will be moving out of the state Friday morning. A warm front will start to approach from the west Friday afternoon, keeping widespread rain chances around. The surface low over WI/MN will deepen an upper level shortwave Friday afternoon. That will swing through Saturday, keeping intermittent rain and storm chances around through the day Saturday and into early Sunday morning. Deterministic guidance is slightly split on Monday/Tuesday, however a few more shortwaves eventually move through with more rain chances through mid week. At this time guidance wants to move drier air in during the end of the work week next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 634 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Rain will continue to work across northern Michigan this morning before chances are expected to diminish into this afternoon. Associated MVFR CIGs are also expected to persist across parts of the area -- including MBL and TVC -- through this morning before rising to VFR this afternoon. Temporary drops to MVFR VSBYs will be possible within heavier rainfall that moves over northern lower TAF sites over the next several hours. Otherwise, additional rain chances and MVFR CIGs look to move back in later tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE... SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...DJC