108
FXUS63 KAPX 300346
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1146 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms linger this evening (a few strong storms
  possible) but diminish into the overnight.

- Crisp night Sunday night with lows potentially reaching into
  the upper 30s in the typical inland cool spots.

- Return of showery / stormy weather set to commence Tuesday into
  Wednesday. Heavy rainfall will be possible, particularly
  Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Trending dry for the Independence Day holiday (Thursday).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Cold front continues to make its way southeastward thru Northern
Lower Michigan late this evening...still generating showers and
thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Main area of convection
that impact our CWA this evening is now heading into Lake Huron.
A few showers linger behind the front...but airmass moving into
the Western Great Lakes behind the front is decidedly more
stable and dry as strong high pressure begins to build over
Wisconsin and Western Upper Michigan. Have made some minor
adjustment to POPs for the remainder of the night...but the
overall flavor of diminishing and eventually ending POPs
remains. Incoming airmass is unseasonably cool...with overnight
lows dropping into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Vort max and cold front combo the main story for this evening with
residual showers and storms. Vort max moves east through the
overnight hours along with cold pool aloft. Consequently, cool
airmass advects into the region behind the frontal boundary and any
substantial precip ends. High pressure builds across the Upper
Midwest on Sunday with circulation around resulting in cool
northerly winds. Conditions are expected to stay dry.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Scattered storms, and an isolated strong/severe storm, linger this
evening as a cold front approaches the region. Showers and decaying
storms will linger through the rest of this evening before
diminishing through the night. Previous fcster mentioned the chance
for drizzle/few light showers thereafter due to the low level
profile, think that makes sense to at least keep very low end pops
for that. Not impactful but an interesting look to the profile for
late June.

Crisp early fall like air expected on Sunday as high pressure builds
in to the west across the Upper Midwest. Thus, northerly winds
anticipated with gusts 20 to 30 mph give or take. Otherwise, skies
will become mostly clear with dry conditions anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast:

Surface high pressure directly overhead Sunday night will be forced
eastward by trough digging into central Canada. Result will be a
pronounced period of return flow Tuesday and Wednesday as low level
jet processes draw a direct tap of Gulf moisture into the Great
Lakes region. Result will be a period of unsettled weather
highlighted by humid conditions and rounds of convection. 500mb
height falls set to slowly commence, eventually forcing a cold front
through the region later Wednesday into Thursday, bringing a little
bit of reprieve to the region for the big holiday before another
potential unsettled period builds to close out the week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Sunday night temps: Should be a crisp night on tap Sunday night as
high pressure directly overhead induces efficient radiational
processes under clear skies and calm winds. Continuing theme from
previous cycle... will be hedging somewhat cooler than guidance to
account for this as it does appear inland low spots could sneak into
the upper 30s. Mid-to-upper 40s for those around the big lakes.

Unsettled weather around midweek: Influences of high pressure appear
to be short lived owing to the transient nature of the surface high,
despite it being nearly 1030mb. Aforementioned return flow expected
to kick into high gear with low level jet help (850mb flow increases
to about 45-55kts)... initially focused more on IA/MN/WI. Corridor
of zonal 500mb flow will carry subtle waves into this region,
resulting in a bit of a convective charge to our west Monday night.
Given the better dynamics are to hold to our west Tuesday, looks
like much of this activity should lose some of, if not, most of its
punch as it moves into northern Michigan early Tuesday morning. This
is supported by the latest WPC Day 3 (12z Mon. - 12z Tue.) excessive
rainfall outlook is focused on the upper Mississippi valley into the
western U.P.

More impactful (for us) convective outburst set to commence Tuesday
night as 850mb (LLJ) max is forced eastward by 500mb height falls,
essentially putting northern Michigan into the core of the moisture
plume, which is continuing to show signs of becoming a bit more
impressive as of this forecast cycle (long term guidance trying to
paint potential for +2.00 PWATs overhead, which is almost 225% of
the climatological norm for early July). With dynamic support, this
may set the stage for rounds of showers and thunderstorms containing
heavy rainfall, which at this time, favors northern lower. Certainly
a trend to watch, as the latest WPC Day 4 (12z Tue. - 12z Wed.)
excessive rainfall outlook continues the heavy rain theme... slight
risk over IA/IL/WI, with marginal risk seeping into northern lower
from the southwest. Much of this activity should clear the area by
the Independence Day holiday on Thursday as a slow-moving cold front
passes through Wednesday night. Still looks like this feature stalls
out to our south, and in theory, should suppress unsettled weather
from leaking into the region Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

MVFR cigs will hold over our area overnight into Sunday morning
in the wake of a cold front that moved thru our region during
the evening. Large area of high pressure will begin to settle
into the Western Great Lakes on Sunday. Strengthening subsidence
and the arrival of drier air will lead to diminishing low
clouds and VFR conditions for Sunday afternoon and night.
NW surface winds of 10 to 20 kts overnight will strengthen to
15 to 25 kts on Sunday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday
     evening for MIZ016-018-020-021-025-031-098-099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for LHZ347>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MLR