629
FXUS63 KAPX 260133
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
933 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small potential for more showers on Wednesday.

- Active weather returns this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Stalled low pressure north of Georgian Bay is pushing a
secondary cold front south across northern lower MI. The
boundary has a well-defined wind shift (from wsw/w to nw) and
a fine line on radar. This front has ignited showers over ne
lower MI this evening. 00Z APX sounding had 1k j/kg of MlCape;
not stunning that a trigger mechanism was enough to kick some
showers off. Have added a few showers along and south of this
front in ne lower MI, before it departs southward in the next
1-2 hours.

Much drier air easing in behind the front. Surface dew points
are near 70f near/south of M-55, have dropped to around 50f in
western Chip/Mack Cos. This will gradually make inroads tonight,
though lightening winds will slow that progress. Sheltered
locales could have a shot at some fog tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Shortwave trough and its attendant cold front (responsible for this
mornings active weather) now off to our east, with post-system
subsidence and building surface high pressure having ended the rain
threat.

Progressive pattern of late set to continue, with weak surface high
passing overhead tonight...quickly followed by next shortwave trough
and weak surface reflection on Wednesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Temperature/cloud trends and addressing that shower threat on
Wednesday.

Details:

Dry conditions expected the rest through tonight as that weak area
of high pressure slides overhead. May see some patchy fog tonight
with the wet ground from recent rains. Not expecting this to become
too significant with maintenance of some light winds. Next wave and
attendant weak surface reflection set to arrive on Wednesday. All
appreciable moisture and instability will be locked up well to our
south, leaving little for the above to work on. However, just enough
low level convergence and remnant moisture to perhaps kick off a few
showers...especially across northeast lower Michigan where that
convergence will be maximized. Shouldn`t be a big deal at all, with
most areas and much of the time remaining dry. Definitely a bit
cooler tomorrow, with highs only expected to top out in the 60s
north of the big bridge, and from the mid 60s north to mid 70s
southeast across northern lower Michigan.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A ridge of high pressure builds over the Great Lakes Region as a
trough swings out of the forecast area by Wednesday night. Dryer
weather will persist through the day Friday with climatological
temperatures expected (mid to upper 70s/ low 80s). Another trough
and its associated low pressure, originating from the west coast,
will track to the area by the weekend bringing back active weather.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

- Weekend Precipitation Chances: A longwave trough and its
  associated low pressure will track towards the Great Lakes
  Region Friday night/ Saturday bringing active weather back to
  the forecast area. Guidance is suggesting that an ample amount
  of moisture will be brought into the region with PWAT
  (precipitable water) values of 1.8 to 2 inches, suggesting
  heavy rainfall likely at this time. Current thinking is that
  this will be a linear set-up that would track from west to
  east across the forecast area. With little instability being
  advertised, severe weather is not expected. However, some
  gusty winds could be possible. Stay tuned as we continue to
  fine tune these details in the coming days!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 723 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR. Much drier air will enter the region on nw-erly breezes.
Should see enough of a breeze tonight to prevent most fog.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...JZ