341
FXUS63 KAPX 132351
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
751 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Trending considerably warmer and more humid Sunday and
  beyond. Highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s possible Monday and
  Tuesday.

- Various chances of showers at storms at times Sunday night and
  into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Thunderstorms developed across central upper earlier this
afternoon and this activity is presently drifting into eastern
upper. These storms are expected to move southeast out of that
area over the next hour or two. Across northern lower, little to
no activity thus far. Do expect isolated activity to develop out
ahead of approaching cold front. Still can`t rule out a few
strong to severe storms with damaging winds and large hail the
main threats. The front moves through this evening with clearing
skies and diminishing winds behind it. In addition, it will
gradually feel less humid with drier air moving in. Surface high
pressure moves over the region Friday yielding mostly sunny
skies and comfortable temperatures. Cooler tonight with lows
ranging from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south. Highs
Friday ranging from around 70 north to the middle 70s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast:

Troughing regime over northeast North America set to break down as a
thermal ridge flexes overhead by the end of the weekend, commencing
the return of warmth with a vengeance. As the 500mb thermal ridge
anchors itself over the Carolinas next week, this will lead to a
quick flow around the periphery of the ridge from WSW to ENE, right
over northern Michigan. This flow around the fringes of the ridge
will result in the potential for convective waves to pass through
the region at times next week, with temperatures in the 80s and
possibly well into the 90s for some at various times.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Precipitation: High pressure keeps things on the dry side Saturday
before a wave cresting the ridge axis passes through the region.
This will bring about the potential for showers and storms.
Admittedly, some uncertainty regarding this feature`s exact track.
This theme continues into next week, with any ejecting convective
wave originating from the plains being able to bring about showers
and storms amid the warm and potentially unstable airmass overhead.
Should be noted that this pattern is somewhat conducive for
mesoscale convective systems (MCS) to ride along the ridge into the
Great Lakes, which could lead to instances of lines of storms
containing strong winds. These systems can vary in position,
intensity, and timing with every run of guidance, so any forecast
regarding individual thunderstorm complexes will have to be fine
tuned perhaps a day or two in advance.

Temperatures: A pleasant and somewhat more seasonable day in store
for Saturday, with highs largely in the 70s (maybe 80s TVC?). Beyond
this, temperatures swell into the 80s Sunday and surge well into the
90s across northern lower and upper 80s in the eastern Yoop at least
for Monday and Tuesday. Some uncertainty is cast on how high
temperatures will exactly climb owing to potential disruptions of
heating from any storms that pass through the region. Should also be
noted that dewpoints surging into the 60s and perhaps near 70 will
add quite the humid feel to things, with overnight lows largely
stalling in the mid 60s to lower 70s for most during this warm
period... certainly an uncomfortable feel set to commence,
especially for those without home cooling.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 751 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Precip has departed, as a cold front moves south out of the
area. MVFR cigs possible this evening at CIU, otherwise VFR
conditions expected, as drier air moves into northern MI.

Winds will become nw and lighter tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JZ