Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
125 FNUS53 KAPX 291826 FWFAPX Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan National Weather Service Gaylord MI 226 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...Drier, a Touch Breezy, and Less Humid to Close out the Weekend... .DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will move directly over northern Michigan to close out the weekend, resulting in clearing skies amid a noticeably drier and cooler NNW breeze. Expectation is that high temps largely struggle to break out of the mid-to-upper 60s Sunday afternoon despite skies clearing from west to east through the morning. This cooler airmass will have lower dewpoints, so RHs will be a touch lower, but not approaching Red Flag criteria (ranging from near 50 closer to the big lakes, but perhaps upper 30s to lower 40s in Huron National Forest). Aforementioned NNW flow will have some pep in its step, sustained 10-15mph, perhaps gusting 25-30mph at times in the afternoon. Looking ahead, high pressure is quickly forced eastward by later Monday, but an approaching disturbance will increase clouds. Low dewpoints expected to linger with RHs actually dropping into the mid-to-upper 30s across much of northern lower Michigan despite the increase in clouds. Winds will be light out of the south (perhaps 5-10mph sustained), and with highs climbing back into the 70s, looks like a decent lake breeze setup for both big lakes, though not expecting any Red Flag criteria to be met. Shower and storm chances are set to return later Tuesday into Wednesday. MIZ016-017-021>023-099-300815- Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency Counties- 226 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Scattered rain showers and chance of thunderstorms until 2400Isolated rain showers after 2400. Min Temperature.....49-54. 24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 83-88 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 5 percent drier along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (121). Mixing Height.......900 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 21 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.23 in. .SUNDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 1200, then mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Max Temperature.....63-68. 24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........41-46 percent. 24 HR Trend......25 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (855). Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl. Transport Winds.....North around 21 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None. .SUNDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent). Min Temperature.....39-44...except around 50 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........95-100 percent...except 83-88 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 5 percent wetter along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Gusts up to 25 mph. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (28). Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....North 9 to 15 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None. .MONDAY... Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Max Temperature.....74-79...except around 71 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........34-39 percent...except 47-52 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......14 percent drier...except 1 percent drier along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Good (477). Mixing Height.......5400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount.........None. $$ MIZ018-024-030-036-042-300815- Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac Counties...including Eastern Huron NF- 226 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Scattered rain showers and chance of thunderstorms until 2400. Min Temperature.....49-54...except 56-61 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 81-86 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......8 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (71). Mixing Height.......600 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 21 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.19 in . .SUNDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 1200, then mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Max Temperature.....66-71. 24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........41-46 percent. 24 HR Trend......20 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (959). Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 24 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None. .SUNDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). Min Temperature.....41-46...except around 51 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 83-88 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (43). Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 15 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None. .MONDAY... Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Max Temperature.....74-79...except 64-69 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........34-39 percent. 24 HR Trend......5 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Good (407). Mixing Height.......5200 ft agl. Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph shifting to the east around 6 mph in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount.........None. $$ MIZ020-025>027-300815- Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL- 226 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Scattered rain showers and chance of thunderstorms until 2400, then isolated rain showers. Min Temperature.....49-54. 24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 80-85 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......7 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (117). Mixing Height.......800 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 21 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.11 in. .SUNDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Max Temperature.....63-68. 24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........45-50 percent. 24 HR Trend......21 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (785). Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl. Transport Winds.....North around 21 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None. .SUNDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent). Min Temperature.....41-46...except 57-62 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........95-100 percent...except 72-77 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Gusts up to 25 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (19). Mixing Height.......300 ft agl. Transport Winds.....North 6 to 15 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None. .MONDAY... Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Max Temperature.....72-77. 24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........35-40 percent. 24 HR Trend......11 percent drier...except 2 percent drier along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Good (485). Mixing Height.......5000 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the southeast around 9 mph in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount.........None. $$ MIZ031>033-300815- Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the northern quarter of Manistee NF- 226 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Scattered rain showers and chance of thunderstorms until 2400, then isolated rain showers. Min Temperature.....47-52. 24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........91-96 percent. 24 HR Trend......6 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (109). Mixing Height.......700 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 21 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in . .SUNDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) until 1200, then mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Max Temperature.....63-68. 24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........44-49 percent. 24 HR Trend......21 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (805). Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl. Transport Winds.....North 21 to 24 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None. .SUNDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent). Min Temperature.....39-44. 24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........95-100 percent. 24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Gusts up to 25 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (25). Mixing Height.......300 ft agl. Transport Winds.....North 9 to 15 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None. .MONDAY... Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Max Temperature.....73-78. 24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........36-41 percent...except 46-51 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......10 percent drier...except 2 percent drier along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Good (555). Mixing Height.......5600 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the southeast around 9 mph in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount.........None. $$ MIZ028-029-034-035-041-300815- Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin Counties...including Western Huron NF- 226 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Scattered rain showers and chance of thunderstorms until 2400. Min Temperature.....49-54. 24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........90-95 percent. 24 HR Trend......8 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (88). Mixing Height.......600 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 21 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.13 in . .SUNDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) until 1200, then mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Max Temperature.....65-70. 24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........39-44 percent. 24 HR Trend......21 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (959). Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 24 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None. .SUNDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent). Min Temperature.....40-45. 24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........94-99 percent. 24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Gusts up to 25 mph. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (36). Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....North 9 to 15 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None. .MONDAY... Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Max Temperature.....74-79. 24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........33-38 percent. 24 HR Trend......7 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Good (550). Mixing Height.......6400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount.........None. $$ .EXTENDED... .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .INDEPENDENCE DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. $$ HAD