Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
932 FNUS53 KAPX 281915 FWFAPX Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan National Weather Service Gaylord MI 315 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...Increasingly Cloudy and Damp to Start the Weekend... .DISCUSSION... Low pressure moving into Lake Superior will continue to draw moisture into the region from the south as we head into tonight. As a result, shower coverage will be on the increase, with potential for some steadier periods of rain later tonight into the morning Saturday. Following a break in the action, another disturbance will pass into the region Saturday evening, sparking off some showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to marginally severe, with primary hazards being gusty winds. As far as temperatures go, will be warmer with highs in the 70s (near 80 closer to Saginaw Bay) on Saturday. Generally westerly winds expected through much of the day Saturday, flipping more west-northwest later in the day as the second disturbance clears. Exception will be potential for a lake breeze to develop closer to the immediate shores of Lake Huron, but the overall persistent 10-15mph flow should keep that from advancing too far inland. Could see some gusts up to 25mph, but with high RHs (generally in the 60s and 70s) coupled with ample green vegetation from recent rains, overall fire risk looks low to start the weekend. Looking ahead, high pressure does return on Sunday, though with a noticeably cooler airmass overhead... as highs struggle to break out of the mid-to-upper 60s for most. This will be accompanied by a brisk north-northwest wind at 10-15mph, perhaps with some gusts up to 25mph. RHs will also be considerably lower on Sunday, dropping into the 30s and 40s... possibly upper 20s in portions of the Huron National Forest area. MIZ016-017-021>023-099-290815- Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency Counties- 315 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms until 2400, then showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Min Temperature.....61-66. 24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer. Max Humidity........94-99 percent. 24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter...except 1 percent wetter along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (88). Mixing Height.......500 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South 15 to 18 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.08- 0.58 in. .SATURDAY... Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) until 1200, then partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of thunderstorms until 1200. Chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms after 1200. Max Temperature.....74-79...except 63-68 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........62-67 percent...except 71-76 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter...except 33 percent wetter along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph . Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (704). Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl. Transport Winds.....West 15 to 21 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.09- 0.32 in. .SATURDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Min Temperature.....48-53. 24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 82-87 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......1 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Fair (259). Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest around 21 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in . .SUNDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Max Temperature.....63-68...except around 61 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........41-46 percent. 24 HR Trend......27 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (915). Mixing Height.......4600 ft agl. Transport Winds.....North around 21 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None. $$ MIZ018-024-030-036-042-290815- Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac Counties...including Eastern Huron NF- 315 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of showers until 2400, then showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Min Temperature.....61-66. 24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer. Max Humidity........93-98 percent. 24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter...except 13 percent wetter along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (81). Mixing Height.......500 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South 15 to 18 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.29 in. .SATURDAY... Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) until 1200, then partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Max Temperature.....77-82...except 67-72 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........58-63 percent. 24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (806). Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.24 in. .SATURDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Min Temperature.....50-55. 24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........88-93 percent...except 77-82 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......7 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Fair (149). Mixing Height.......900 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 24 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in . .SUNDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Max Temperature.....66-71...except 58-63 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........39-44 percent. 24 HR Trend......21 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (944). Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 24 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None. $$ MIZ020-025>027-290815- Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL- 315 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms until 2400, then showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Min Temperature.....62-67. 24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer. Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (80). Mixing Height.......500 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South around 18 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.22- 0.73 in. .SATURDAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms until 1200, then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Max Temperature.....74-79...except 61-66 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........64-69 percent. 24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (766). Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl. Transport Winds.....West 15 to 18 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.12- 0.28 in. .SATURDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Min Temperature.....48-53...except 56-61 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 76-81 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......4 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Fair (251). Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 24 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in . .SUNDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Max Temperature.....64-69. 24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler...except 7 degrees cooler near the coast. Min Humidity........44-49 percent. 24 HR Trend......20 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (772). Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl. Transport Winds.....North 18 to 21 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None. $$ MIZ031>033-290815- Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the northern quarter of Manistee NF- 315 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms until 2400, then showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Min Temperature.....62-67. 24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer. Max Humidity........94-99 percent. 24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (79). Mixing Height.......500 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South around 18 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.21- 1.05 in. .SATURDAY... Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) until 1200, then partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms until 1200, then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Max Temperature.....75-80...except 67-72 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........62-67 percent...except 71-76 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (834). Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl. Transport Winds.....West 15 to 18 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.12- 0.32 in. .SATURDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of rain showers until 2400. Min Temperature.....49-54. 24 HR Trend......15 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 82-87 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......7 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Fair (237). Mixing Height.......1200 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 24 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in . .SUNDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Max Temperature.....63-68. 24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........42-47 percent. 24 HR Trend......22 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (800). Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl. Transport Winds.....North 18 to 21 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None. $$ MIZ028-029-034-035-041-290815- Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin Counties...including Western Huron NF- 315 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of thunderstorms until 2400. Chance of showers. Chance of thunderstorms after 2400. Min Temperature.....62-67. 24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer. Max Humidity........94-99 percent. 24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph . Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Poor (80). Mixing Height.......500 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.46 in. .SATURDAY... Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) until 1200, then partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Max Temperature.....77-82. 24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........58-63 percent. 24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 24 mph. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (1026). Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl. Transport Winds.....West 15 to 21 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.21 in. .SATURDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Min Temperature.....49-54. 24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........90-95 percent. 24 HR Trend......4 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Fair (170). Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 24 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in . .SUNDAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent) until 1200, then sunny (20-30 percent). Max Temperature.....66-71. 24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........39-44 percent. 24 HR Trend......18 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Vent Rate...........Excellent (954). Mixing Height.......5000 ft agl. Transport Winds.....North 21 to 24 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None. $$ .EXTENDED... .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .INDEPENDENCE DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. $$ HAD