Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
918 AXNT20 KNHC 240604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri May 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep-layered trough extending southwestward from the Windward Passage to near Costa Rica/Panama is gradually lifting northeastward over Haiti. With both divergent winds aloft and abundant moisture still over Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, sporadic deep convection are expected near these locations through Friday. Latest model guidance still suggests the heaviest rainfall to be near southern Dominican Republic. Residents in the above locations should remain alert for significant rainfall and potential flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather office for more specific information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is located near 49W, from 13N southward and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 11N between 45W and 55W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the southern Senegal coast near Ziguinchor, then curves southwestward across 08N19W to 05N22W. An ITCZ continues westward from 05N22W across 03N35W to 05N47W. Scattered moderate convection is found south of the trough from 02N to 07N between 10W and 19W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring up to 150 nm north, and 100 nm south of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge runs southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico. Despite fair conditions in the entire Gulf, smoke and haze produced by agricultural fires in Mexico remains across the western and central Gulf. Latest observations indicate visibilities of 3 to 5 nm at the western Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present across the western and south-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, hazy conditions will continue across all but the northeastern Gulf through tonight. High pressure will remain to the northeast of the Gulf through the end of the week, producing moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds west of 90W, and gentle to moderate winds east of 90W. Winds will become SE to S basin- wide tonight through Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about a Significant Rainfall Event. Due to the deep-layer trough along with abundant moisture mentioned in the Special Features section, widely scattered moderated convection is flaring up over the central basin. This includes waters near the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola. Convergent trade winds are causing isolated thunderstorms near the Island of Youth. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident at the Gulf of Honduras and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the basin, including the Windward Passage. Smoke and haze due to agricultural fires in Central America persists across the Gulf of Honduras, and offshore from Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Latest observations reveal reduced visibilities of 4 to 6 nm. For the forecast, the deep-layer trough mentioned in the Special Features section is sustaining active weather across the central basin, which will gradually shift northeastward and into the Atlantic through Fri night. A broad and weak trough will prevail across the north-central basin tonight through Sat, yielding moderate trade winds across the eastern basin and moderate to fresh winds across the northwestern basin. Smoke and haze will spread northwestward to the Yucatan coast. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A sharp deep-layered trough extends southward from west of Bermuda across 31N72W and the central Bahamas to beyond eastern Cuba, providing divergent flow to its east. Meanwhile, a surface trough near the southeast Bahamas is maintaining a moist southerly flow. This combination is triggering scattered moderate convection from 20N to 28N between 65W and 73W, including the southeast Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands. Thick cirrus from this convection spreads westward to near 50W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. A surface ridge associated with a 1021 mb high near 30N47W and a 1021 mb high near 27N33W is supporting gentle winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft north of 24N between 25W and the Florida/Georgia coast, except moderate to fresh E to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas from 20N to 27N between 62W and 70W. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft exist north of 13N between the Africa coast and 25W/30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 04N to 20N/24N between 25W/30W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are present. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms along with fresh winds and building seas will persist overnight into Fri near a developing low pressure area roughly half way between Bermuda and Hispaniola. Expect fresh to strong winds and rough seas near the low pressure late Fri through Sat as it makes its closest point of approach of 210 nm to the southeast of Bermuda Sat afternoon, before weakening as it moves slowly into the north-central Atlantic through the early part of the week. Farther west, weak high pressure will build between Bermuda and the central Bahamas Sat into Sun following the low pressure. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh SW winds and building seas are possible north of the Bahamas and off northeast Florida by Mon night as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front expected to move off the southeast U.S. coast by midweek. $$ Chan