915
FXUS61 KBGM 271822
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
222 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet conditions return to the region through the end of the
work week, though a passing shower will be possible across
the Mohawk Valley region this morning. The next system moves in
this weekend, with periods of rain and thunderstorms in the
forecast Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
1230 PM Update...

Showers are lasting a bit longer than originally forecasted.
Using hi-res guidance and manual edits, slight chance PoPs were
added for the next couple of hours. Skies are finally clearing
behind the passing showers. Areas under the cloudy skies and
rain showers are cooler than forecasted. Because of this, lows
were lowered in a few locations, mainly across CNY. The other
change was added additional fog to the forecast for the
overnight hours.

925 AM Update...

Some minor changes were made for this update but overall the
forecast is doing well.

640 AM Update

No significant changes. Touched up cloud cover based on the
latest visible satellite imagery and 09z HRRR. A few rain
showers will be possible along and north of I-90 now through mid
to late morning; just trace or a few hundreths of rainfall
expected here; dry elsewhere. Temperatures are starting off
between 55 to 65 out there early this morning. There is some
patchy fog around as expected. Generally, we are still expecting
the stratus cloud layer to scatter out, giving way to sunshine
by midday, with mostly sunny skies prevailing this afternoon.

215 AM Update

Much quieter, cooler and less humid weather expected for the
near term period.

Clouds linger through much of the morning hours today before
scattering out midday or early afternoon. The afternoon looks to
feature plenty of sunshine and drier air mixes down into the
boundary layer. Cooler temperatures, with highs in the upper
60s to mid-70 across Central NY with low 70s to low 80s in NE
PA. NW winds will be a little breezy later today, between 8-15
mph with gusts up around 20-25 mph expected. Winds quickly
diminish toward sunset and high pressure approaches.

Cool and mostly clear with light winds tonight as a 1020mb
surface high builds overhead. Overnight lows dip down into the
40s and low 50s areawide. This is 5 to 10 degrees below average
for late June, and will be quite refreshing.

Sprawling surface high pressure remains in place Friday
morning, only slowly translating east into New England by the
afternoon hours. After some patchy early morning valley fog,
skies will be sunny to mostly sunny through the day. With full
sunshine, went 1-2 degrees above the NBM temperature guidance
and also lowered surface dew points and RH to account for the
dry air mass centered over the region. Forecast highs are in the
mid-70s to lower 80s over the area Friday afternoon, this is
very close to average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

215 PM Update...

There are no significant changes with the 12Z model guidance for
this period. SPC and WPC both have the region in a marginal
risks for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. The more
likely potential hazard will be localized flash flooding. As far
as severe thunderstorms...there is a strong low level jet the
pushes in Saturday afternoon, but forecast soundings are showing
very little if any instability during the day Saturday. At this
time, the thinking is for possibly some embedded thunder among
heavy rain showers, but severe threat looks quite low.

315 AM Update...

Rain showers and thunderstorms move in from the west early
Saturday morning as deep SW return flow advects moisture into
the region. Models continue to show PWAT values ranging 2-3
standard deviations above normal for this time of year with
values surpassing 2 inches. This along with a deep warm cloud
layer of 12-13K feet suggests conditions are favorable for heavy
rainfall that could lead to instances of localized flash
flooding. The convective potential at this time continues to be
unfavorable as the early arrival of rainfall should limit
instability. Rain showers are expected to continue into Saturday
night with a relatively warm temperatures as lows will range in
the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...


220 PM Update...

Cold front will exit the region Sunday morning, but with upper
trough pushing overhead, some diurnal showers (possibly lake
enhanced) will be possible during the afternoon. Overnight
temperatures behind the front will be cooler with lows ranging
in the low to upper 50s.

Surface high pressure moves in overhead on Monday, bringing dry
and warm conditions through the first half of the week. The
pattern becomes zonal mid week with several perturbations
pushing through the flow that will bring our next rain chances
Wednesday and through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through this entire TAF period. West-
northwest winds will remain through the afternoon hours with speeds
around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts. These winds
will diminish into the late evening hours below 10 kts before
becoming light and variable overnight. Winds will remain calm
through at least early Friday afternoon. Fog may be possible at
most terminals, exception being AVP and SYR, in the early
morning hours on Friday. However, confidence is low because
model guidance is suggesting very little fog, but forecast
soundings show a possibility for fog or low stratus. For now,
this was handled by tempo groups.

Outlook...

Friday Night...Mainly VFR; low chance for showers at CNY
terminals.

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions from showers and
thunderstorms possible, mainly Saturday and into Saturday night.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...BTL/MJM
SHORT TERM...ES/MPK
LONG TERM...ES/MPK
AVIATION...BTL