009
FXUS61 KBGM 060714
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
314 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms this morning will move east by the
early afternoon with a drier air mass moving in later today.
Temperatures will still be warm through the weekend but it will
feel less muggy with the lower humidity. Heat continues into
next week with chances of rain returning by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
315 AM Update...

Showers and thunderstorms have developed across east central PA
early this morning and will be moving into the Wyoming Valley
through sunrise. Mesoanalysis shows a decent amount of most
unstable CAPE (2000-3000 J/kg) extending from the Chesapeake Bay
up into PA helping to fuel these storms. 0-6 km shear with
these storms is only around 20 to 25 knots though given the high
CAPE severe storms are possible with strong winds and hail.
Forecast soundings dont show too much cin and given the
temperature at AVP was 77 degrees at 1 am it seems reasonable
that some of the winds could punch through to the surface with
any stronger downburst. So far despite tall cloud tops, storms
have struggled to get any deep cores in order to get enough
precipitation loading to get a microburst or downburst.
Precipitable water values are currently over 1.5 inches with
deep warm cloud depths so heavy rainfall rates are likely with
any storm. Right now the storms are moving at a good pace and
there has not been any training so far as of 3 am.

The surface trough responsible for triggering these showers and
thunderstorms will be moving east this morning with dry air
advecting in. The dry air can be seen on water vapor imagery in
central PA and as that moves in, day time heating will be able
to mix some of it down with dew points falling this afternoon.
Soil moisture will likely be fairly high with the rainfall this
morning so areas that see more than a quarter inch of rain may
take more time to dry out. The Finger Lakes into CNY will have a
500 mb shortwave pass through this afternoon coupled with a 250
mb jet streak with the HREF showing between 400 and 900 J/kg of
surface based CAPE developing so a few isolated thunderstorms
are likely. The lack of good instability will limit the severe
potential with the afternoon storms but given the high shear,
higher lifted condensation levels, and steep low level lapse
rates, a small potential exist for severe wind gusts if any
storm can get a deep enough core. The dry air in the mid levels
and skinny cape depicted in forecast soundings will really lead
to dry air entrainment with the storms so many will struggle to
develop much above 15,000 to 20,000 feet.

Once the shortwave is through this afternoon, ridging builds
back in with flow aloft weakening and the 250 mb jet retreating
northward. Dry air in the mid levels remains with surface high
pressure building in so temperatures remain warm but mixing will
help drop dew points into the mid to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
250 PM update...
Main concerns in the short term are focused on the typical
summertime hot and humid conditions Sunday and Monday with a few
weak thunderstorms kicking off Monday afternoon.

Weak/broad upper level ridge with gradual rising heights aloft
will lead to widespread suppression over the region Sunday and
Sun night with quiet weather. Precipitation chances are less
than 5% for the entire forecast area of central NY and northeast
PA. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to remain in the mid to
upper 80s in NY and into the upper 80s and lower 90s in ne PA.
Humidity values should be mostly tolerable with dew points in
the lower to mid 60s.

Another night of mild temperatures Sun night/Mon morning with
lows bottoming out in the 60s.

On Monday, a stronger push of the hot and humid air mass from
the south will occur which will allow high temperatures to rise
into the upper 80s and lower 90s for much of the region. Dew
points in the mid to upper 60s will make it feel just slightly
hotter, but still rather uncomfortable. The increased amount of
moisture and instability advecting into the region should lead
to slightly higher chances (10 to 15%) of thunderstorms by the
afternoon. Coverage of any storm that does form should be
isolated, the duration should be brief and the intensity should
be weak.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
250 PM update...
Low chances (10 to 20%) of showers and storms continue Monday
night as the upper short wave to the west gradually moves
eastward into a moist and unstable air mass. The overall forcing
during the night should be weak enough to keep storm intensity
to a minimum.

As Tuesday wears on the boundary layer will heat up once again
and dew points will climb into the lower 70s, which will make it
feel like the lower 90s. Much of the region will be under the
influence of the approach upper wave to the west, amidst the
deep moisture, which will induce widespread showers and storms
(40-60% chance) later in the day Tuesday into Tue night.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to how
far east the trough axis/short wave will move. If the boundary
hangs back to the west, then a greater area of showers and
storms will be possible (30-45% chance) through the day
Wednesday. If the system is more progressive then chances will
be 10-25% lower, especially over the western Finger Lakes.

It appears milder air will move in late Wed into Thu with highs
only into the lower 80s along with lower humidity. However,
cannot rule out a few scattered showers and storms pretty much
any day later next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to form near AVP so the
timing of thunderstorms was moved up. The showers and
thunderstorms have so far stayed NW of SYR and RME and that
trend looks to continue so IFR was taken out of the TAFs as
chances are now lower through 12Z. ELM, ITH, and BGM should be
clipped by the north edge of the thunderstorms so mainly rain
showers are expected with lightning staying south this morning.

Drier air moves in behind this mornings round of showers and
thunderstorms with cigs scattering out and VFR conditions
returning shortly after 12Z for all terminals. VFR conditions
will then persist into tonight with only a slim chance at a
shower or thunderstorm in the vicinity of ITH, SYR, and RME this
afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday Night...Isolated thunderstorms, then areas of fog
overnight with associated restrictions.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Showers and thunderstorms possible,
with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...AJG/MPK