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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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254 FXUS63 KBIS 282325 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 625 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms remain possible through this evening. An isolated strong to severe storm is possible, mainly across central and eastern North Dakota. Hail up to the size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the main threat. In addition, a funnel cloud is possible. - It will be breezy to windy today, especially in southwestern North Dakota where gusts of 35 to 45 are expected, highest in Bowman and Slope Counties. - Severe thunderstorm potential (a Level 2 of 5 Risk) in the form of large hail and damaging winds returns Sunday night. - Severe thunderstorm potential could continue for Monday, especially in south central and southeastern North Dakota. && .UPDATE... Issued at 601 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Upper level low has moved into North Dakota and is situated near Williston and moving to the east. An areas of 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE is situated over northern ND which is within an area of 40-50kts of bulk shear. Showers continue to develop over central ND and as this low impedes upon this area of instability, a few strong to severe storms can not be ruled out this evening. there is instability (500-1000J/KG MLCAPE) that does extend south into south central ND, but forcing here is not as strong. Under the upper low, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue. The Non-supercell Tornado parameter remains high over northwest ND and also portions of the north central. Low level lapse rates remain high over central ND, and funnel clouds or a possible landspout tornado can not be ruled out as well. Updated sky cover and pops based on latest satellite and radar analysis. A wind advisory remains in effect through 9 PM MDT. Winds this last hour were gusting to 37 knots at Baker MT. Will continue the advisory. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Upper level low will push across North Dakota through tonight. Late this afternoon through this evening will see widespread showers with a isolated to scattered thunderstorms. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk across central and eastern ND. These areas could see MUCAPE up to 1000 J/KG, while shear remains quite robust around 50 knots, although does look to diminish as the day goes on. Hodographs are not very curved but are fairly straight which could help hail production. Given the adequate amounts of instability and shear decided to add mention of quarter size hail and 60 MPH wind gusts in areas in the Marginal Risk. Of note is a high Non Supercell Tornado Parameter currently in MT and Canada that will advect this way. Meso analysis also shows fair amounts of low level cape and steep low level lapse rates in the north this afternoon into the early evening. Thus a funnel cloud to perhaps brief landspout tornado are possible today. The north (Highway 2 corridor and north) to the James River Valley may have a slightly better chance of this occurring, although will be possible most anywhere with a Marginal Risk. This wrapped up low has also brought some breezy winds to ND and windy conditions in Montana. As this low progresses through these stronger winds will also push through. Confidence in the strongest winds still remains in the Wind Advisory area, thus no expansion at this time. Tonight, thunderstorms will diminish although a few showers will be possible. Low clouds will be found through the night as well from this low. Mixing looks to be enough to prevent fog, although perhaps some mist or drizzle is possible from these clouds. Surface high and upper level ridge will then push across the state on North Dakota. This will gradually erode clouds, with cooler temperatures in the 60s expected. Winds will also diminish, although may be breezy across the east. High moves eastward on Sunday with southwest flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface moving in. Warming temperatures and breezy to windy conditions will be found. Perhaps these winds get near advisory level as the EFI is elevated in the southwest. Severe weather then remains possible for Sunday evening through Sunday night as an upper level wave moves through. A strong low level jet will also help support the severe weather potential. Kept the hazards generic for now, although this could be more of a wind threat with the strong shear vector along the front axis. There still could be enough elevate cape for a hail threat as well. Will continue to monitor and SPC currently has a Marginal to Slight risk for this threat. This wave remains across the area on Monday. This could bring continued unsettled weather with near normal temperatures. SPC has a Day 4 risk outlook for south central and southeastern ND. This is where the highest instability is currently forecast, although much of the CWA sees at least modest instability and decent amounts of shear. Something to monitor going forward. The state then looks to remain in a broad to flattened trough pattern through much of next week. Overall this brings an unsettle pattern with temperatures near to slightly below normal. Near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will also be found in this pattern. THE CSU-MLP also puts almost near daily small chances for isolated severe weather each day. This far out it is tough to pinpoint timing and location, yet those with outdoor plans for next week will want to keep an eye on the latest forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 601 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening. MVFR to IFR ceilings tonight into Saturday morning. An upper level low will move east across western and central ND this evening with showers and thunderstorms possible across the area this evening. Late tonight, as the upper low exits, MVFR to IFR cloudiness is forecast to drop south behind the low and remain through mid-late morning in the north, including KXWA and KMOT, and early afternoon across the southern TAF sites. VFR conditions are expected most areas by Saturday afternoon. West to northwest winds generally 15 to 25 mph this evening and turning more northwest to north tonight and remaining breezy through the night. Northwest to north winds then subside on Saturday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NDZ040-043. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...TWH