Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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714 FXUS63 KBIS 251926 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening from far northwestern North Dakota through central North Dakota, including the James River Valley. Severe weather is not expected, though a brief strong thunderstorm or two is not out of the question. - High chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible over this time period, especially in western North Dakota. 60 mph winds, hail up to the size of golf balls, and a few tornadoes are possible. - Below normal temperatures Friday through Sunday, with highs mostly in the mid 60s to mid 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 For this evening and into the overnight hours, there is a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms across most of the area, with a 30 percent chance in the south central including much of the James River Valley. Anything that develops should move from northwest to southeast. Instability looks rather limited with generally less than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE available, although moderate effective shear of 40 to 50 kts is expected as well. As a result, severe weather seems unlikely. However, a strong thunderstorm or two is possible that may result in small hail and gusty winds. Dry conditions are then on tap for Wednesday before additional shortwaves move through Wednesday night through Thursday night. Initially for Wednesday night through Thursday morning, the result looks to be isolated to scattered sub-severe thunderstorms mainly in the west and south central. For later Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, a more favorable severe weather threat sets up. Though not fully open, high pressure over Minnesota and the Great Lakes Region will advect Gulf Stream moisture into the state, especially the western half. Progged mixed layer dewpoints from this are in the low to mid 50s, which may help MUCAPE values to reach in excess of 2000 J/kg. In addition, plenty of shear to sustain updrafts is also progged for this event. Potential hazards are wind gusts up to 60 mph, golf ball size hail, and a few tornadoes. As storms progress eastward, the environment looks less favorable, though a few severe storms may be possible for central ND as well. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are favored to continue Friday through Friday night, especially in the northern half of the state. However, as supported by CSU Machine Learning, these storms seem unlikely to become severe as of now. Conditions then look to dry out Saturday through Saturday night before showers and thunderstorms return early next week with severe weather chances favored to return. Temperature-wise, expect near average temperatures north this afternoon with seasonably warm temperatures south. This translates to highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Highs for Wednesday are forecast to be below average and in the 70s for all but the southwest where the low 80s are possible. Thursday should be slightly warmer, with most locations remaining in the 70s, although the upper 80s are possible in the southwest. A cooling trend is then expected Friday through Saturday, with high confidence that Saturday will see well below average highs in the mid 60s to around 70. A bit of a warming trend is then favored to start next week as ridging to the west amplifies and slides through the Northern Plains. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Generally speaking, VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period. However, there is a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms moving from northwest to southeast this evening, with a 30 percent chance in the southeast. Any impacts from showers and thunderstorms that develop are expected to be brief and may include reduced ceilings and visibility, as well as erratic winds. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...Telken