Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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088 FXUS63 KBIS 200243 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 943 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cooling trend is forecast this weekend into early next week. Some areas of frost are possible Sunday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 940 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Skies continue to clear, except for a band of lower clouds moving through the north central. Winds have calmed down below advisory criteria after the last update, so the Wind Advisory was cancelled after 23z. We got rid of the rest of the PoPs in the north because the low pressure has moved too far away, and the diurnal heating stopped. UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 With the surface low continuing to move east, the chances for showers and thunderstorms are now limited to the northern counties. They will mostly be rain showers as there is very little instability. By sunset these should mostly be gone, along with the breezy winds. PoPs were updated to reflect this trend. Skies will also clear overnight and into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Upper level low will continue to push across the state through this evening. The gradient from this low is lingering breezy to windy conditions across the CWA. Currently, sites in the Wind Advisory are still hitting criteria via sustained, gusts, or both. Thus have extended the Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT / 7 PM MDT. This low will also continue chances for showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms until about sunset this evening. Clouds and wind then go on a diminishing trend overnight tonight as a surface high move to our south. Low temperatures tonight will cool somewhat and generally be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Surface high will move eastward on Friday, switching the flow to southerly at the surface yet not as breezy as recent days. This southerly flow and developing surface low in MT could set up a weak warm front for Friday, warming temperatures back into the mid 70s to perhaps mid 80s. Mainly dry conditions are expected during the day Friday. As this low moves across North Dakota during the evening and overnight hours a few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. Although shear is abundant with this feature, instability is quite lacking. Thus the threat for severe weather for Friday is low. A cold front with this low will switch the winds back to northwest Friday night and may become breezy. Behind this mentioned front will be cooler temperatures for the weekend. Look for highs both Saturday and Sunday to be in the 60s. A passing mainly dry wave on Saturday could bring breezy northwest winds to much of the area. Saturday night into Sunday morning surface high moves over the area diminishing winds and any cloud cover from the wave. With the cooler air moving in low temperatures are forecast to drop into the 30s across the west and 40s in the east. This could bring some areas of frost for Sunday morning. This high then moves eastward for Sunday returning south winds and continued dry conditions. Northwest flow then looks to linger to start next week. This could continue the cooler temperatures. Passing waves in this flow could bring some isolated showers. Broad ridging is then indicated for mid to perhaps late next week in the clusters. How amplified this ridge becomes is the main area of uncertainty. However, with the general ridging pattern look for warming temperatures and mainly dry conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 940 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 VFR skies and visibilities through the period, except KMOT until about 0330z where MVFR ceiling are. Winds will calm to around 10kts overnight. Skies will also start to clear out, leading to a clear Friday with winds nearing 20kts from the southwest. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Smith DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...Smith