Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
155 FXUS63 KBIS 261257 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 757 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers become likely (~60-80 percent chance) over most locations from west to east today into this evening. Thunderstorms also possible, some of which may have small hail and gusty winds. - Precipitation chances remain over much of the area Monday, with dry conditions Tuesday into early Wednesday. - Precipitation chances return late Wednesday, continuing through the end of the work week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 757 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Temperatures in the northeast have generally warmed into the 40s. Thus the Frost Advisory in these areas has been allowed to expire at 8 AM CDT. Otherwise the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Rain showers continue to gradually move into and develop over western portions of the area. Over the far north central, temperatures in the mid 30s are occurring, so will leave the frost advisory in place. Only minimal changes have been needed. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 422 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Latest surface analysis places low along the Manitoba/Ontario border, with high over the Central Rockies. Upper level analysis shows low stacked over its respective surface feature, with weak ridging near the west coast. A variety of short waves noted in the flow upstream from our area, with the closest one now pushing from western into central Montana. A few light showers well ahead of the wave are starting to work their way through western portions of North Dakota. Elsewhere over our area, frost advisory still remains in effect over far north central North Dakota where temperatures have dipped into the mid 30s per latest Rolla observation. A few patches of fog have also developed over various parts of the area as wind has gone light to calm over most locations. For today, aforementioned wave continues its approach and deepens, with showers becoming more numerous from west to east across the area today. Some thunderstorms are expected, with a few possibly becoming strong with small hail/gusty winds with marginal instability/deep layer shear. Wave continues to move east tonight, with precipitation tapering off over the west, possibly continuing through the night over parts of central North Dakota/James River Valley. On Monday, aforementioned upper low to the northeast opens up and starts wrapping into the flow of another low closing off to its east. As it drops south, it will bring additional chances for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to much of our area. Upper ridge passes over for Tuesday into early Wednesday, bringing a period of dry conditions. Ridge pushes east late Wednesday as an upper low passes over the Canadian Rockies resulting in active southwesterly flow over our area. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase substantially from west to east overnight as the initial wave with the aforementioned system passes through. Precipitation chances then continue near daily through the end of the week as the upper low moves through the central part of the Prairie Provinces, and various waves rotate through our area. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Numerous rain showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms will spread from west to east over western and central North Dakota today into this evening. Localized visibility reductions to IFR/MVFR will be possible in the heavier precipitation. In addition to the precipitation, patchy fog this morning over much of the area may lead to localized IFR/MVFR visibility. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected until late tonight when some low clouds may move into parts of north central North Dakota. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...JJS